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Working Paper
Do federal funds futures need adjustment for excess returns? a state-dependent approach
Bundick, Brent (2007)
This paper utilizes a Markov-switching framework to model excess returns in federal funds futures contracts. This framework identifies a high-volatility state where excess returns are large, positive, and volatile and a low-volatility state where excess returns have a lower volatility and are small in absolute value. Federal funds futures rates require adjustment for excess returns only in the high-volatility state. Intermeeting rate cuts of the federal funds rate target always correspond with the high-volatility regime and can explain much of the variation in excess returns. This paper also ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 07-08

Working Paper
Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risks in a Data-Rich Environment
Cook, Thomas R.; Doh, Taeyoung (2019-11-20)
We use a large set of economic and financial indicators to assess tail risks of the three macroeconomic variables: real GDP, unemployment, and inflation. When applied to U.S. data, we find evidence that a dense model using principal components (PC) as predictors might be misspecified by imposing the “common slope” assumption on the set of predictors across multiple quantiles. The common slope assumption ignores the heterogeneous informativeness of individual predictors on different quantiles. However, the parsimony of the PC-based approach improves the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 19-12

Working Paper
Reply to \"Generalizing the Taylor principle\": a comment
Leeper, Eric M.; Davig, Troy A. (2009)
Farmer, Waggoner, and Zha (2009) show that a new Keynesian model with a regime-switching monetary policy rule can support multiple solutions that depend only on the fundamental shocks in the model. Their note appears to find solutions in regions of the parameter space where there should be no bounded solutions, according to conditions in Davig and Leeper (2007). This puzzling finding is straightforward to explain: Farmer, Waggoner, and Zha (FWZ) derive solutions using a model that differs from the one to which the Davig and Leeper (DL) conditions apply. In addition, FWZ impose cross-equation ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 09-09

Working Paper
Monetary policy, trend inflation, and the Great Moderation: an alternative interpretation: comment based on system estimation
Kurozumi, Takushi; Hirose, Yasuo; Van Zandweghe, Willem (2015-12-01)
What caused the U.S. economy's shift from the Great Inflation era to the Great Moderation era? {{p}} A large literature shows that the shift was achieved by the change in monetary policy from a passive to an active response to inflation. However, Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2011) attribute the shift to a fall in trend inflation along with the policy change, based on a solely estimated Taylor rule and a calibrated staggered-price model. We estimate the Taylor rule and the staggered-price model jointly and demonstrate that the change in monetary policy responses to inflation and other variables ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 15-17

Working Paper
Why is the forward exchange rate forecast biased? A survey of recent evidence
Engel, Charles (1995)
Forward exchange rate unbiasedness is rejected in tests from the current floating exchange rate era. This paper surveys advances in this area since the publication of Hodrick's (1987) survey. It documents that the change in the future exchange rate is generally negatively related to the forward premium. Properties of the expected forward forecast error are reviewed. Issues such as the relation of uncovered interest parity to real interest parity, and the implications of uncovered interest parity for cointegration of various quantities are discussed. The modeling and testing for risk premiums ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 95-06

Working Paper
Determinants of the decline in union COLA's
Weiner, Stuart E. (1993)
Research Working Paper , Paper 93-02

Working Paper
Currency competition : a partial vindication of Hayek
Schreft, Stacey L.; Martin, Antoine (2003)
This paper establishes the existence of equilibria for environments in which outside money is issued competitively. Such equilibria are typically believed not to exist because of a classic overissue problem: if money is valued in equilibrium, an issuer produces money until its value is driven to zero. By backward induction, money cannot have value in the first place. However, for any given finite amount of money outstanding, a monetary economy typically has two equilibria. In one, money has value; in the other, money is not valued because no one expects it to be valued. This paper takes this ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 03-04

Working Paper
Barriers to network-specific innovation
Orlando, Michael J.; Martin, Antoine (2004)
We consider an environment in which participants make payments over a network and can invest in a technology that reduces the marginal cost of using the network. A network effect results in multiple equilibria; either all agents invest and usage of the network is high or no agents invest and usage of the network is low. The high-usage equilibrium can be implemented through introduction of a coordinator. Under monopoly network ownership, however, fixed costs associated with use of the network-specific technology result in a hold-up problem that implements the low-investment equilibrium. And ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 04-11

Working Paper
Do stock prices follow interest rates or inflation?
Bishop, David G.; Golob, John E. (1996)
Market analysts often forecast changes in stock prices by comparing earnings-price ratios on stocks to nominal interest rates. This paper shows that stock prices have followed inflation more closely than interest rates over the last thirty years. This result has implications for recent stock valuations, because the spread between nominal interest rates and inflation has recently been above historic averages. That is, stock prices appear more overvalued when the earnings-price ratio is compared to nominal interest rates than when the earnings-price ratio is compared to inflation. Our result ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 96-13

Working Paper
Monetary policy regime switches and macroeconomic dynamic
Foerster, Andrew T. (2013)
This paper investigates how different monetary policy regime switching types impact macroeconomic dynamics. Policy switches that either affect the inflation target or the response to inflation deviations from target lead to different determinacy regions and different output, inflation, and interest rate distributions. With regime switching, the standard Taylor Principle breaks down in multiple ways; satisfying the Principle period-by-period is neither necessary nor sufficient for determinacy. Switching inflation targets primarily affects the economy's level, whereas switching inflation ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 13-04

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