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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City  Series:Research Working Paper 

Working Paper
The Size of U.S. Metropolitan Areas

Metropolitan areas—unions of nearby built-up locations within which people travel on a day-to-day basis among places of residence, employment, and consumption—serve as a fundamental unit of economic analysis. But existing delineations of U.S. metro areas—including metropolitan Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs), Urbanized Areas, and Commuting Zones—stray far from this conception. We develop a flexible algorithm that uses commuting flows among U.S. census tracts in 2000 to match varied interpretations of our metropolitan conception. Under a baseline parameterization that balances ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 21-02

Working Paper
Exchange rates and discount rate changes

Research Working Paper , Paper 86-06

Working Paper
The economics of labor adjustment : mind the gap

We study inferences about the dynamics of labor adjustment obtained by the "gap methodology" of Caballero and Engel [1993] and Caballero, Engel and Haltiwanger [1997]. In that approach, the policy function for employment growth is assumed to depend on an unobservable gap between the target and current levels of employment. Using time series observations, these studies reject the partial adjustment model and find that aggregate employment dynamics depend on the cross-sectional distribution of employment gaps. Thus, nonlinear adjustment at the plant level appears to have aggregate ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 03-05

Working Paper
Lender exposure and effort in the syndicated loan market

This paper tests for agency problems between the lead arranger and syndicate participants in the syndicated loan market. One problem comes from adverse selection, whereby the lead arranger has a private informational advantage over participants. A second problem comes from moral hazard, whereby the lead arranger puts less effort in monitoring when it retains a smaller loan portion. Applying an instrumental variables strategy, I find that borrowers' performance is influenced by the lead's share. Dynamic tests extract active contributions made by the lead, supporting a monitoring ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 10-12

Working Paper
Endogenous multiple currencies

I study a model of multiple currencies in which sellers can choose the currency they will accept. I provide conditions that are necessary and sufficient to avoid indeterminacy of the exchange rate. Under these assumptions, all stable equilibria have the property that all sellers in the same country accept the same currency. Thus stable equilibria are either single currency or national currencies equilibria. I also show that currency substitution occurs as an endogenous response to high growth in the stock of a currency.
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 02-03

Working Paper
Should We Be Puzzled by Forward Guidance?

Although a growing literature argues output is too sensitive to future interest rates in standard macroeconomic models, little empirical evidence has been put forth to evaluate this claim. In this paper, we use a range of vector autoregression models to answer the central question of how much output responds to changes in interest rate expectations following a monetary policy shock. Despite distinct identification strategies and sample periods, we find surprising agreement regarding this elasticity across empirical models. We then show that in a standard model of nominal rigidity estimated ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-01

Working Paper
How does labor mobility affect income convergence?

The neoclassical growth model is extended to allow for mobile labor. Following a negative shock to a small economy's capital stock, capital and labor frictions effect an equilibrium transition path during which wages remain below their steady-state level. Outmigration directly contributes to faster income convergence but also creates a disincentive for gross capital formation. The net result is that across a wide range of calibrations, the speed of income convergence is relatively insensitive to the degree of labor mobility.
Research Working Paper , Paper 99-12

Working Paper
A bottleneck capital model of development

A convex marginal adjustment cost allows the neoclassical growth model to match observed transition paths for output growth, savings, investment, the real interest rate, and the shadow value of installed capital. Such an adjustment cost need apply only to one of two complementary capital inputs with minimal factor income share. The interaction of complementary capital inputs blurs the distinction between capital accumulation and productivity growth.
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 01-10

Working Paper
Amenities, local conditions and fiscal determinants of factor growth in rural America

This paper examines how amenities, asset indicators, and fiscal factors influence the growth in factors of production from 1972 to 1999 in the 466 non-metropolitan labor market areas in the continental United States. In developing our model of non-metropolitan factor markets, we combine the emphasis of Brown et al. (2003) on the affect of taxes and public expenditure policy on labor and capital formation with the emphasis of Beeson et al. (2001) on the importance of climate and natural features on localized population growth. We develop our own measure of capital stock in non-metropolitan ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 06-08

Working Paper
When does the cost channel pose a challenge to inflation targeting central banks?

In a sticky-price model where firms finance their production inputs, there is both a lower and an upper bound on the central bank's inflation response necessary to rule out the possibility of self-fulfilling inflation expectations. This paper shows that real wage rigidities decrease this upper bound, but coefficients in the range of those on the Taylor rule place the economy well within the determinacy region. However, when there is time-variation in the share of firms who finance their inputs (i.e. Markov-Switching) then inflation targeting interest rate rules are often found to result in ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 15-6

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