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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City  Series:Research Working Paper 

Working Paper
Why does liquidity matter in investment equations?

Research Working Paper , Paper 93-13

Working Paper
Prior Fraud Exposure and Precautionary Credit Market Behavior

We study how past experiences with privacy shocks affect individuals’ likelihood to take precautionary behavior when faced with a new privacy shock in the context of credit markets. We focus on experiences with identity theft and data breaches, two kinds of privacy shocks that either directly lead to fraud or put an individual at an elevated risk of experiencing fraud. We show that immediately after the announcement of the 2017 Equifax data breach, individuals with either kind of prior fraud exposure were more likely to freeze their credit report and close credit card accounts than ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 22-14

Working Paper
Forecast-based monetary policy

A number of central banks use (published or unpublished) forecasts of goal variables as key ingredients in their decisions for instrument settings. This use of forecasts is modelled as a particular form of objective with the minimization of which the central bank is charged. We use an estimated optimization-based model with staggered price and wage setting to analyze the welfare properties of such objectives and their implications for the form of instrument rules. We find that stabilizing expected price inflation at a horizon of two years around target dominates policies of stabilizing ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 99-10

Working Paper
A regime shift in measured per capita consumption, with implications for asset prices and returns

Research Working Paper , Paper 92-06

Working Paper
Production and Inventory Dynamics under Ambiguity Aversion

We propose a production-cost smoothing model with Knightian uncertainty due to ambiguity aversion to study the joint behavior of production, inventories, and sales. Our model can explain four facts that previous studies find difficult to account for simultaneously: (i) the high volatility of production relative to sales, (ii) the low ratio of inventory-investment volatility to sales volatility, (iii) the positive correlation between sales and inventories, and (iv) the negative correlation between the inventory-to-sales ratio and sales. We find that the stock-out avoidance motive (Kahn 1987) ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 21-05

Working Paper
Reaching the Hard to Reach with Intermediaries: The Kansas City Fed’s LMI Survey

Reaching hard-to-reach individuals is a common problem in survey research. The low- and moderate-income (LMI) population, for example, is generally hard to reach. The Kansas City Fed?s Low- and Moderate-Income Survey addresses this problem by sampling a database of organizations to serve as proxies for the LMI population. In this paper, I describe why the LMI population can be hard to reach. I then explore potential problems with using a nonrandom survey sample and address the empirical validity of the Kansas City Fed?s LMI Survey. I compare results from the survey using the standard sample ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 18-6

Working Paper
The settlement of the United States, 1800 to 2000: the long transition towards Gibrat's law

A prominent strand of economic literature argues that population growth rates across locations areas are uncorrelated with the population levels of those locations (?Gibrat?s Law?). Such uncorrelated growth, it is argued, can account for the current distribution of population across locations. This paper shows that, on the contrary, locations? population growth throughout U.S. history has always been highly correlated with their initial population levels. Throughout the entire 19th century and the early 20th century, low-population locations tended to grow faster than intermediate-population ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 13-02

Working Paper
Competition and Bank Fragility

Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 17-6

Working Paper
Target's corporate governance and bank merger payoffs

Commercial bank merger and acquisition (M&A) transactions are especially informative for analyzing the impact of differing corporate governance structures on the balance of corporate control between managers and shareholders. We exploit these special characteristics to investigate the balance of control between top-tier managers and shareholders using data from bank M&A transactions over the period 1990-2004. Unlike research on non-financial firms, the impacts of independent directors, managerial share ownership, and independent blockholders on bank merger purchase premiums in this ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 07-13

Working Paper
Job Polarization and the Natural Rate of Unemployment in the United States

I present a new estimate of the natural rate of unemployment in the United States that accounts for changes in the age, sex, and skill composition of the labor force. Using micro-level data from the Current Population Survey for the period 1994-2017, I find that the natural rate of unemployment declined by 0.5 percentage point since 1994 and currently stands at 4.5 percent. My projections show that ongoing demographic and technological changes could lower the trend rate further to 4.4 percent by the end of 2022.
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 18-3

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