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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City  Series:Research Working Paper 

Working Paper
Pricing interest rate swaps in an options pricing framework

Research Working Paper , Paper 87-02

Working Paper
Convenient prices and price rigidity: cross-sectional evidence

This paper provides cross-sectional evidence of convenient prices--prices that simplify and expedite transactions and thereby reduce the time costs from physically making a transaction. I propose that firms may wish to set convenient prices for items that: (1) are typically purchased with cash; (2) are sold alone or with a few similar items; and (3) are high-traffic transactions, i.e., require queuing or are purchased very frequently. I find broad support for the use of convenient prices in locations where making a rapid transaction is important. Convenience also appears to predominantly ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 08-04

Working Paper
Market reaction to monetary policy nonannouncements

This paper examines how Treasury security yields, stock prices, and federal funds futures rates respond on Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting dates when expected policy actions do not occur. The empirical results support the existence of nonannouncement effects on short- and intermediate-term yields. In particular, part of an expected policy action, measured using federal funds futures rates, is unwound when the action does not materialize. This partial unwinding is consistent with markets reacting to the surprise by postponing, but not eliminating, the possibility of a future ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 98-06

Working Paper
Term structure views of monetary policy

Term structure models and many descriptions of the transmission of monetary policy rest on the empirical relevance of the expectations hypothesis. Small differences in the perceived policy reaction function in VAR models of agent expectations strongly influence the relevance in the transmission mechanism of the expected short rate component of bond yields. Mean-reverting or difference-stationary characterizations of interest rates require large and volatile term premiums to match the observable term structure. However, short rate descriptions that capture shifting perceptions of long-horizon ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 98-07

Working Paper
Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities

Small-scale VARs have come to be widely used in macroeconomics, for purposes ranging from forecasting output, prices, and interest rates to modeling expectations formation in theoretical models. However, a body of recent work suggests such VAR models may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts from a VAR. These methods include using different approaches to lag selection, observation windows for estimation, (over-) differencing, intercept correction, stochastically ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 06-09

Working Paper
Does money matter anymore? A comment on Friedman and Kuttner

Research Working Paper , Paper 92-07

Working Paper
The social value of risk-free government debt

This paper considers whether eliminating the stock of government debt outstanding would reduce welfare. It models an economy with three assets?currency, government bonds, and storage, a transactions role for money, and a demand for liquidity and thus a role for banks. The Friedman rule is not optimal in this economy, so there is potentially a role for interest-bearing, risk-free government bonds. Because the government must raise enough revenue to meet its interest obligations on any bonds outstanding, the social value of government debt hinges on whether the benefits from greater portfolio ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 03-02

Working Paper
When does the cost channel pose a challenge to inflation targeting central banks?

In a sticky-price model where firms finance their production inputs, there is both a lower and an upper bound on the central bank's inflation response necessary to rule out the possibility of self-fulfilling inflation expectations. This paper shows that real wage rigidities decrease this upper bound, but coefficients in the range of those on the Taylor rule place the economy well within the determinacy region. However, when there is time-variation in the share of firms who finance their inputs (i.e. Markov-Switching) then inflation targeting interest rate rules are often found to result in ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 15-6

Working Paper
New exporter dynamics

Models in which heterogeneous plants face sunk export entry costs are standard tools in the international trade literature. How well do these models account for the observed dynamics of new exporters? We document that new exporters initially export small amounts and ? conditional on continuing in the export market ? grow gradually over several years. New exporters are most likely to exit the export market in their first few years. We construct a dynamic discrete choice model of exporting and find that the standard model cannot replicate the behavior of new exporters: New exporters grow too ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 14-10

Working Paper
How do large banking organizations manage their capital ratio?

Large banking organizations in the U.S. hold significantly more equity capital than the minimum required by bank regulators. This capital cushion has built up during a period of unusual profitability for the banking system, leading some observers to argue that the capital merely reflects recent profits. Others contend that the banks deliberately choose target capital levels based on their risk exposures and their counterparties? sensitivities to default risk. In either case, the existence of ?excess? capital makes it difficult to observe how banks manage their capital levels, particularly in ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 08-01

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