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Journal Article
Post-Pandemic Labor Shortages Have Limited the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Labor Market
The labor market has so far shown remarkable resilience to the Federal Reserve’s recent monetary policy tightening. Severe labor shortages in the post-pandemic era have led many employers to hold on to workers and hire less-skilled workers—even though they expect demand for their goods or services to weaken in the future. As a result, unemployment remains low, and labor productivity has declined.
Journal Article
Recession Prediction on the Clock
The jobless unemployment rate is a reliable predictor of recessions, almost always showing a turning point shortly before recessions but not at other times. Its success in predicting recessions is on par with the better-known slope of the yield curve but at a shorter horizon. Hence, it performs better for predicting recessions in the near term. Currently, this data and related series analyzed using the same method are not signaling that a recession is imminent, although that may change in coming months.
Working Paper
Economic Activity by Race
We observe empirical differences between races across various macroeconomic variables for the White, Black, Asian, and Hispanic populations in the U.S. For instance, the Black unemployment rate in the U.S. is more often than not double the White unemployment rate. In this paper, I treat nine macroeconomic variables as noisy indicators of economic activity and estimate an index that measures the economic activity of racial demographic groups in the U.S., called Economic Activity by Race (EAR). The noise of the indicators motivates the use of Kalman filter estimation to extract a common ...
Discussion Paper
Parsing the Slow Post-Pandemic Labor Market Recovery of Maryland’s Capital Suburbs
The District of Columbia and its inner ring suburbs — referred to as the Capital Beltway after Interstate 495 — has historically been the core job center for the Washington Metropolitan Area1. (See map below.) Following restrictions to in-person activities at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, unemployment spiked within the Capital Beltway, jobs were shed, and commuting patterns shifted. The labor market recovery from the pandemic shock has been uneven within the Capital Beltway, with stronger growth in the Virginia suburbs than the District of Columbia and Maryland's ...
Examining the Beveridge Curve with a Dual Vacancy Model
The Beveridge curve looks at the relationship between the job vacancy rate and the unemployment rate. But how is the curve affected by employed workers competing for unfilled jobs?