Breakeven Employment Growth

RePEc Short ID: ppe260
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2216-110X

Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Stewart, Stephanie

Journal Article

Breakeven Employment Growth

Abstract: Employment growth has consistently come in above pre-pandemic estimates of the rate needed for unemployment to stay near its long-run natural rate. Even so, unemployment has held steady, which raises the question of whether the “breakeven” employment growth rate has changed. In the short-run, recent surges in immigration and labor force participation have caused the current breakeven employment growth rate to rise as high as 230,000 jobs per month. However, the long-run breakeven employment growth rate appears unchanged, ranging around 70,000 to 90,000 jobs per month.

Keywords: covid19; employment growth; unemployment rate; job growth;