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Working Paper
Irrational expectations and econometric practice: discussion of Orphanides and Williams, \"Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy\"
Ireland, Peter N. (2003)
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams' excellent conference paper, "Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy," contributes importantly to the new and rapidly growing branch of the literature on bounded rationality and learning in macroeconomics. Their paper, like many others, derives interesting and useful theoretical results that show how the introduction of bounded rationality and learning impacts on the effects of monetary policy shocks and the characteristics of optimal monetary policy rules. This note suggests that some additional empirical work-some "irrational ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2003-22

Journal Article
Monetary policy as equilibrium selection
Antinolfi, Gaetano; Azariadis, Costas; Bullard, James B. (2007-07)
Can monetary policy guide expectations toward desirable outcomes when equilibrium and welfare are sensitive to alternative, commonly held rational beliefs? This paper studies this question in an exchange economy with endogenous debt limits in which dynamic complementarities between dated debt limits support two Pareto-ranked steady states: a suboptimal, locally stable autarkic state and a constrained optimal, locally unstable trading state. The authors identify feedback policies that reverse the stability properties of the two steady states and ensure rapid convergence to the constrained ...
Review , Volume 89 , Issue Jul , Pages 331-342

Working Paper
Aggregate demand management with multiple equilibria
Keister, Todd; Ennis, Huberto M. (2003)
We study optimal government policy in an economy where (i) search frictions create a coordination problem and generate multiple Pareto-ranked equilibria and (ii). The government finances the provision of a public good by taxing trade. The government must choose the tax rate before it knows which equilibrium will obtain, and therefore an important part of the problem is determining how the policy will affect the equilibrium selection process. We show that when the equilibrium selection rule is based on the concept of risk dominance, higher tax rates make coordination on the Pareto-superior ...
Working Paper , Paper 03-04

Report
Can U.S. monetary policy fall (again) into an expectation trap?
Armenter, Roc; Bodenstein, Martin (2005)
We provide a tractable model to study monetary policy under discretion. We restrict our analysis to Markov equilibria. We find that for all parametrizations with an equilibrium inflation rate of about 2 percent, there is a second equilibrium with an inflation rate just above 10 percent. Thus, the model can simultaneously account for the low and high inflation episodes in the United States. We carefully characterize the set of Markov equilibria along the parameter space and find our results to be robust, suggesting that expectation traps are more than just a theoretical curiosity.
Staff Reports , Paper 229

Working Paper
An inquiry into the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium with state-dependent pricing
Wolman, Alexander L.; John, A. Andrew (2004)
State-dependent pricing models are now an operational framework for quantitative business cycle analysis. The analysis in Ball and Romer [1991], however, suggests that such models may be rife with multiple equilibria: in their static model price adjustment is always characterized by complementarity, a necessary condition for multiplicity. We study existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in a discrete-time state-dependent pricing model. In steady states of our model, we find only weak complementarity and no evidence of multiplicity. We likewise find no evidence of multiplicity in the presence ...
Working Paper , Paper 04-04

Working Paper
Can the U.S. monetary policy fall (again) in an expectation trap?
Armenter, Roc; Bodenstein, Martin (2006)
We provide a tractable model to study monetary policy under discretion. We focus on Markov equilibria. For all parametrizations with an equilibrium inflation rate around 2%, there is a second equilibrium with an inflation rate just above 10%. Thus the model can simultaneously account for the low and high inflation episodes in the U.S. We carefully characterize the set of Markov equilibria along the parameter space and find our results to be robust.
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 860

Working Paper
Trade elasticity of substitution and equilibrium dynamics
Bodenstein, Martin (2008)
The empirical literature provides a wide range of estimates for trade elasticities at the aggregate level. Furthermore, recent contributions in international macroeconomics suggest that low (implied) values of the trade elasticity of substitution may play an important role in understanding the disconnect between international prices and real variables. However, a standard model of the international business cycle displays multiple locally isolated equilibria if the trade elasticity of substitution is sufficiently low. The main contribution of this paper is to compute and characterize some ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 934

Report
Nonconvex factor adjustments in equilibrium business cycle models: Do nonlinearities matter?
Thomas, Julia K.; Khan, Aubhik (2002)
Recent empirical analysis has found nonlinearities to be important in understanding aggregated investment. Using an equilibrium business cycle model, we search for aggregate nonlinearities arising from the introduction of nonconvex capital adjustment costs. We find that, while such costs lead to nontrivial nonlinearities in aggregate investment demand, equilibrium investment is effectively unchanged. Our finding, based on a model in which aggregate fluctuations arise through exogenous changes in total factor productivity, is robust to the introduction of shocks to the relative price of ...
Staff Report , Paper 306

Working Paper
Large investors: implications for equilibrium asset, returns, shock absorption, and liquidity
Pritsker, Matthew (2005)
The growing share of financial assets that are held and managed by large institutional investors whose desired trades move asset prices is at odds with the traditional competitive assumption that investors are small and take prices as given. This paper relaxes the traditional price-taking assumption and instead presents a dynamic multiple asset model of imperfect competition in asset markets among large investors who differ in their risk aversion. The model is used to study asset price dynamics during an LTCM-like scenario in which market rumors of distressed asset sales are followed at a ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2005-36

Working Paper
Impacts of priors on convergence and escapes from Nash inflation
Williams, Noah; Sargent, Thomas J. (2003)
Recent papers have analyzed how adaptive agents may converge to and escape from self-confirming equilibria. All of these papers have imputed to agents a particular prior about drifting coefficients. In the context of a model of monetary policy, this paper analyzes dynamics that govern both convergence and escape under a more general class of priors for the government. The authors characterize how the shape of the prior influences the dynamics in important ways. There are priors for which the E-stability condition is not enough to assure local convergence to a self-confirming equilibrium. ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2003-14

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