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Jel Classification:E42 

Working Paper
Cryptocurrency Market Reactions to Regulatory News

Cryptocurrencies are often thought to operate out of the reach of national regulation, but in fact their valuations, transaction volumes and user bases react substantially to news about regulatory actions. The impact depends on the specific regulatory category to which the news relates: events related to general bans on cryptocurrencies or to their treatment under securities law have the greatest adverse effect, followed by news on combating money laundering and the financing of terrorism, and on restricting the interoperability of cryptocurrencies with regulated markets. News pointing to the ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 381

Working Paper
Macroeconomic Effects of Banking Sector Losses across Structural Models

The macro spillover effects of capital shortfalls in the financial intermediation sector are compared across five dynamic equilibrium models for policy analysis. Although all the models considered share antecedents and a methodological core, each model emphasizes different transmission channels. This approach delivers "model-based confidence intervals" for the real and financial effects of shocks originating in the financial sector. The range of outcomes predicted by the five models is only slightly narrower than confidence intervals produced by simple vector autoregressions.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-44

Working Paper
The Federal Reserve's Portfolio and its Effect on Interest Rates

We explore the historical composition of the Federal Reserve's Treasury portfolio and its effect on Treasury yields. Using data from 1985 to 2016, we show that the divergence of the composition of the Federal Reserve's portfolio from overall Treasury securities outstanding is associated with a statistically significant effect on interest rates. In aggregate, when the Federal Reserve's portfolio has shorter maturity than overall Treasury debt outstanding, measures of the term premium are higher at all horizons; likewise, when the Federal Reserve's portfolio has longer maturity, term premiums ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-075

Working Paper
Did the Founding of the Federal Reserve Affect the Vulnerability of the Interbank System to Systemic Risk?

As a result of legal restrictions on branch banking, an extensive interbank system developed in the United States during the 19th century to facilitate interregional payments and flows of liquidity and credit. Vast sums moved through the interbank system to meet seasonal and other demands, but the system also transmitted shocks during banking panics. The Federal Reserve was established in 1914 to reduce reliance on the interbank market and correct other defects that caused banking system instability. Drawing on recent theoretical work on interbank networks, we examine how the Fed?s ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-059

Working Paper
Can the US Interbank Market be Revived?

Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve as well as new Basel III banking regulations have led to important changes in U.S. money markets. Most notably the interbank market has essentially disappeared with the dramatic increase in excess reserves held by banks. We build a model in the tradition of Poole (1968) to study whether interbank market activity can be revived if the supply of excess reserves is decreased sufficiently. We show that it may not be possible to revive the market to pre-crisis volumes due to costs associated with recent banking regulations. Although the volume of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-088

Working Paper
Monetary Policy Implementation with an Ample Supply of Reserves

Methods of monetary policy implementation continue to change. The level of reserve supply---scarce, abundant, or somewhere in between---has implications for the efficiency and effectiveness of an implementation regime. The money market events of September 2019 highlight the need for an analytical framework to better understand implementation regimes. We discuss major issues relevant to the choice of an implementation regime, using a parsimonious framework and drawing from the experience in the United States since the 2007-09 financial crisis. We find that the optimal level of reserve supply ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-020

Working Paper
Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933: Evidence from the Narrative Record

This paper uses the historical narrative record to determine whether inflation expectations shifted during the second quarter of 1933, precisely as the recovery from the Great Depression took hold. First, by examining the historical news record and the forecasts of contemporary business analysts, we show that inflation expectations increased dramatically. Second, using an event-studies approach, we identify the impact on financial markets of the key events that shifted inflation expectations. Third, we gather new evidence--both quantitative and narrative--that indicates that the shift in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-29

Working Paper
Government and private e-money-like systems: federal reserve notes and national bank notes

The period from 1914 to 1935 in the United States is unique in that it was the only time that both privately issued bank notes (national bank notes) and central-bank-issued bank notes (Federal Reserve notes) were simultaneously in circulation. This paper describes some lessons relevant to e-money from the U.S. experience during this period. It argues that Federal Reserve notes were not issued to be a superior currency to national bank notes. Rather, they were issued to enable the Federal Reserve System to act as a lender of last resort in times of financial stress. It also argues that the ...
FRB Atlanta CenFIS Working Paper , Paper 15-3

Working Paper
The efficiency of private e-money-like systems: the U.S. experience with national bank notes

Beginning in 1864, in the United States notes of national banks were the predominant medium of exchange. Each national bank issued its own notes. E-money shares many of the characteristics of these bank notes. This paper describes some lessons relevant to e money from the U.S. experience with national bank notes. It examines historical evidence on how well the bank notes?a privately issued currency system with multiple issuers?functioned with respect to ease of transacting, counterfeiting, safety, overissuance, and par exchange (a uniform currency). It finds that bank notes made transacting ...
FRB Atlanta CenFIS Working Paper , Paper 15-2

Working Paper
The efficiency of private e-money-like systems: the U.S. experience with state bank notes

In the United States prior to 1863, each bank issued its own distinct notes. E-money shares many of the characteristics of these bank notes. This paper describes some lessons relevant to e-money from the U.S. experience with state bank notes. It examines historical evidence on how well the bank notes?a privately issued currency system with multiple issuers?functioned with respect to ease of transacting, counterfeiting, safety, overissuance, and par exchange. It finds that bank notes made transacting easier and were not subject to overissuance. However, counterfeiting of bank notes was ...
FRB Atlanta CenFIS Working Paper , Paper 15-1

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