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Working Paper
Can the US Interbank Market be Revived?
Martin, Antoine; Kim, Kyungmin; Nosal, Ed (2018-12-21)
Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve as well as new Basel III banking regulations have led to important changes in U.S. money markets. Most notably the interbank market has essentially disappeared with the dramatic increase in excess reserves held by banks. We build a model in the tradition of Poole (1968) to study whether interbank market activity can be revived if the supply of excess reserves is decreased sufficiently. We show that it may not be possible to revive the market to pre-crisis volumes due to costs associated with recent banking regulations. Although the volume of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-088

Working Paper
A Model of the Federal Funds Market: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow
Afonso, Gara M.; Lester, Benjamin; Armenter, Roc (2018-02-21)
The landscape of the federal funds market changed drastically in the wake of the Great Recession as large-scale asset purchase programs left depository institutions awash with reserves, and new regulations made it more costly for these institutions to lend. As traditional levers for implementing monetary policy became less effective, the Federal Reserve introduced new tools to implement the target range for the federal funds rate, changing this landscape even more. In this paper, we develop a model that is capable of reproducing the main features of the federal funds market, as observed ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-10

Working Paper
Faster Payments : Market Structure and Policy Considerations
Stavins, Joanna; Baughman, Garth; Stewart, Kylie; Rosenbaum, Aaron; Hayashi, Fumiko; Manuszak, Mark D. (2017-09-25)
The U.S. payments industry is in the process of developing ubiquitous, safe, faster electronic solutions for making a broad variety of business and personal payments. How this market for faster payments will evolve will be shaped by a range of economic forces, such as economies of scale and scope, network effects, switching costs, and product differentiation. Emerging technologies could alter these forces and lead to new organizational arrangements or market structures that are different from those in legacy payment markets to date. In light of this uncertainty, this paper examines three ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-100

Working Paper
Did the Founding of the Federal Reserve Affect the Vulnerability of the Interbank System to Congation Risk?
Carlson, Mark A.; Wheelock, David C. (2016-06-14)
As a result of legal restrictions on branch banking, an extensive interbank system developed in the United States during the nineteenth century to facilitate interregional payments and flows of liquidity and credit. Vast sums moved through the interbank system to meet seasonal and other demands, but the system also transmitted shocks during banking panics. The Federal Reserve was established in 1914 to reduce reliance on the interbank system and to correct other defects that caused banking system instability. Drawing on recent theoretical work on interbank networks, we examine how the Fed?s ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-12

Report
An empirical study of trade dynamics in the interbank market
Afonso, Gara M.; Lagos, Ricardo (2012)
We use minute-by-minute daily transaction-level payments data to document the cross-sectional and time-series behavior of the estimated prices and quantities negotiated by commercial banks in the fed funds market. We study the frequency and volume of trade, the size distribution of loans, the distribution of bilateral fed funds rates, and the intraday dynamics of the reserve balances held by commercial banks. We find evidence of the importance of the liquidity provision achieved by commercial banks that act as de facto intermediaries of fed funds.
Staff Reports , Paper 550

Report
The Monetary and Fiscal History of Argentina, 1960-2017
Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Buera, Francisco J. (2019-02-01)
In this chapter, we review the monetary and fiscal history of Argentina for the period 1960?2017, a time during which the country suffered several balance of payments crises, three periods of hyperinflation, two defaults on government debt, and three banking crises. All told, between 1969 and 1991, after several monetary reforms, thirteen zeros had been removed from its currency. We argue that all these events are the symptom of a recurrent problem: Argentina?s unsuccessful attempts to tame the fiscal deficit. An implication of our analysis is that the future economic evolution of Argentina ...
Staff Report , Paper 580

Report
A study of competing designs for a liquidity-saving mechanism
McAndrews, James J.; Martin, Antoine (2008-07-01)
We study two designs for a liquidity-saving mechanism (LSM), a queuing arrangement used with an interbank settlement system. We consider an environment where banks are subjected to liquidity shocks. Banks must make the decision to send, queue, or delay their payments after observing a noisy signal of the shock. With a balance-reactive LSM, banks can set a balance threshold below which payments are not released from the queue. Banks can choose their threshold such that the release of a payment from the queue is conditional on the liquidity shock. With a receipt-reactive LSM, a payment is ...
Staff Reports , Paper 336

Working Paper
Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933: Evidence from the Narrative Record
Jalil, Andrew; Rua, Gisela (2015-04-22)
This paper uses the historical narrative record to determine whether inflation expectations shifted during the second quarter of 1933, precisely as the recovery from the Great Depression took hold. First, by examining the historical news record and the forecasts of contemporary business analysts, we show that inflation expectations increased dramatically. Second, using an event-studies approach, we identify the impact on financial markets of the key events that shifted inflation expectations. Third, we gather new evidence--both quantitative and narrative--that indicates that the shift in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-29

Discussion Paper
Consumer Behavior in a Health Crisis: What Happened with Cash?
Foster, Kevin; Greene, Claire (2021-01-12)
In the United States, COVID-19 cases and currency in circulation both surged in March 2020. Did consumer choice play a role in the increase in currency in circulation? With fewer opportunities to shop and pay in person, why would consumers hold more cash? Data from the fall 2019 Survey and Diary of Consumer Payment Choice and interim rapid-response surveys in spring and late summer 2020 give some insights into consumer cash holdings and payments behavior.
Policy Hub , Paper 2021-1

Report
Nonlinear pricing with competition: the market for settling payments
Garratt, Rod; Copeland, Adam (2015-08-01)
The multiple payments settlement systems available in the United States differ on several dimensions. The Fedwire Funds Service, a utility that operates a U.S. large-value payments-settlement service, offers the fastest speed of settlement. Recognizing that payments differ in the urgency with which they need to be settled, Fedwire offers banks a decreasing block-price schedule. This approach allows Fedwire to price discriminate, charging high fees for urgent payments and low fees for less urgent ones. We analyze banks? demand for Fedwire Funds given this nonlinear scheme, taking into account ...
Staff Reports , Paper 737

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