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Working Paper
Can't Pay or Won't Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default
Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Herkenhoff, Kyle F.; Ohanian, Lee E.; Willen, Paul S. (2013-08-01)
This paper exploits matched data from the PSID on borrower mortgages with income and demographic data to quantify the relative importance of negative equity, versus lack of ability to pay, as affecting default between 2009 and 2013. These data allow us to construct household budgets sets that provide better measures of ability to pay. We use instrumental variables to quantify the impact of ability to pay, including job loss and disability, versus negative equity. Changes in ability to pay have the largest estimated effects. Job loss has an equivalent effect on default likelihood as a 35 ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2013-04

Working Paper
Changing Business Dynamism and Productivity : Shocks vs. Responsiveness
Decker, Ryan A.; Haltiwanger, John; Jarmin, Ron S.; Miranda, Javier (2018-02-02)
The pace of job reallocation has declined in all U.S. sectors since 2000. In standard models, aggregate job reallocation depends on (a) the dispersion of idiosyncratic productivity shocks faced by businesses and (b) the marginal responsiveness of businesses to those shocks. Using several novel empirical facts from business microdata, we infer that the pervasive post-2000 decline in reallocation reflects weaker responsiveness in a manner consistent with rising adjustment frictions and not lower dispersion of shocks. The within-industry dispersion of TFP and output per worker has risen, while ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-007

Working Paper
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder
Flemming, Jean (2020-03-27)
Even though workers in the UK spent just 1,000 pounds on commuting in 2017, the economic loss may be far higher because of the congestion externality arising from the way in which one worker's commute affects the commuting time of others. I provide empirical evidence that commuting time affects job acceptance, pointing to large indirect costs of congestion. To interpret the empirical facts and quantify the costs of congestion, I build a model featuring a frictional labor market within a metropolitan area. By endogenizing commuting congestion in a labor search model, the model connects labor ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-025

Report
Jacks of All Trades and Masters of One: Declining Search Frictions and Unequal Growth
Menzio, Guido; Martellini, Paolo (2020-09-23)
Declining search frictions generate productivity growth by allowing workers to find jobs for which they are better suited. The return of declining search frictions on productivity varies across different types of workers. For workers who are "jacks of all trades" in the sense that their productivity is nearly independent from the distance between their skills and the requirements of their job—declining search frictions lead to minimal productivity growth. For workers who are "masters of one trade" in the sense that their productivity is very sensitive to the gap between their individual ...
Staff Report , Paper 613

Working Paper
Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation
Hajdini, Ina; Knotek, Edward S.; Leer, John; Pedemonte, Mathieu; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael (2022-06-23)
Using a novel experimental setup, we study the direction of causality between consumers’ inflation expectations and their income growth expectations. In a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers, we find that the rate of passthrough from expected inflation to expected income growth is incomplete, on the order of 20 percent. There is no statistically significant effect going in the other direction. Passthrough varies systematically with demographic and socioeconomic factors, with greater passthrough for higher-income individuals than lower-income individuals, although it is ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-21

Working Paper
Macroelasticities and the U.S. sequestration budget cuts
Zarazaga, Carlos E. (2014-11-01)
Microeconomic studies keep reporting that the intertemporal substitution in consumption and the Frisch elasticity of aggregate labor supply have significantly lower values than macroeconomic models find consistent with the dynamics of aggregate variables. The paper argues that in the U.S. such dynamics have been influenced since 2013 by the temporary spending cuts imposed by the so-called budget sequestration. The paper exploits the "policy experiment" features of that measure to gauge macroelasticity values from the evidence associated with it, adopting to that effect a macroeconomic model ...
Working Papers , Paper 1412

Journal Article
The Lasting Damage from the Financial Crisis to U.S. Productivity
Van Zandweghe, Willem; Redmond, Michael (2016-01)
Michael Redmond and Willem Van Zandweghe find that tight credit conditions during the 2007?09 financial crisis dampened productivity, leaving it on a lower trajectory. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
Economic Review , Issue Q I , Pages 39-64

Working Paper
Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy
Birinci, Serdar; Karahan, Fatih; Mercan, Yusuf; See, Kurt (2022-08)
We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the role of worker flows in inflation dynamics and monetary policy. Motivated by our empirical finding that the historical negative correlation between the unemployment rate and the employer-to-employer (EE) transition rate up to the Great Recession disappeared during the recovery, we use the model to quantify the effect of EE transitions on inflation in this period. We find that the four-quarter inflation rate would have been 0.6 percentage points higher ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-016

Working Paper
Estimating the Trend Unemployment Rate in the Fourth Federal Reserve District
Fallick, Bruce; Tasci, Murat (2020-07-01)
We estimate trend unemployment rates for Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia, states that span parts of the Fourth District of the Federal Reserve System. Our estimated unemployment rate trend for the District as a whole stood at 5.7 percent in 2020:Q1 compared to a 4.7 percent observed unemployment rate within the District, implying a tight labor market by historical standards.
Working Papers , Paper 20-19

Working Paper
Which Output Gap Estimates Are Stable in Real Time and Why?
Barbarino, Alessandro; Berge, Travis J.; Chen, Han; Stella, Andrea (2020-12-18)
Output gaps that are estimated in real time can differ substantially from those estimated after the fact. We aim to understand the real-time instability of output gap estimates by comparing a suite of reduced-form models. We propose a new statistical decomposition and find that including a Okun’s law relationship improves real-time stability by alleviating the end-point problem. Models that include the unemployment rate also produce output gaps with relevant economic content. However, we find that no model of the output gap is clearly superior to the others along each metric we consider.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-102

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