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Working Paper
Can't Pay or Won't Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default
Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Herkenhoff, Kyle F.; Ohanian, Lee E.; Willen, Paul S.
(2013-08-01)
This paper exploits matched data from the PSID on borrower mortgages with income and demographic data to quantify the relative importance of negative equity, versus lack of ability to pay, as affecting default between 2009 and 2013. These data allow us to construct household budgets sets that provide better measures of ability to pay. We use instrumental variables to quantify the impact of ability to pay, including job loss and disability, versus negative equity. Changes in ability to pay have the largest estimated effects. Job loss has an equivalent effect on default likelihood as a 35 ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2013-04
Working Paper
Changing Business Dynamism and Productivity : Shocks vs. Responsiveness
Decker, Ryan A.; Haltiwanger, John; Jarmin, Ron S.; Miranda, Javier
(2018-02-02)
The pace of job reallocation has declined in all U.S. sectors since 2000. In standard models, aggregate job reallocation depends on (a) the dispersion of idiosyncratic productivity shocks faced by businesses and (b) the marginal responsiveness of businesses to those shocks. Using several novel empirical facts from business microdata, we infer that the pervasive post-2000 decline in reallocation reflects weaker responsiveness in a manner consistent with rising adjustment frictions and not lower dispersion of shocks. The within-industry dispersion of TFP and output per worker has risen, while ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2018-007
Working Paper
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder
Flemming, Jean
(2020-03-27)
Even though workers in the UK spent just 1,000 pounds on commuting in 2017, the economic loss may be far higher because of the congestion externality arising from the way in which one worker's commute affects the commuting time of others. I provide empirical evidence that commuting time affects job acceptance, pointing to large indirect costs of congestion. To interpret the empirical facts and quantify the costs of congestion, I build a model featuring a frictional labor market within a metropolitan area. By endogenizing commuting congestion in a labor search model, the model connects labor ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2020-025
Report
Jacks of All Trades and Masters of One: Declining Search Frictions and Unequal Growth
Menzio, Guido; Martellini, Paolo
(2020-09-23)
Declining search frictions generate productivity growth by allowing workers to find jobs for which they are better suited. The return of declining search frictions on productivity varies across different types of workers. For workers who are "jacks of all trades" in the sense that their productivity is nearly independent from the distance between their skills and the requirements of their job—declining search frictions lead to minimal productivity growth. For workers who are "masters of one trade" in the sense that their productivity is very sensitive to the gap between their individual ...
Staff Report
, Paper 613
Working Paper
Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation
Hajdini, Ina; Knotek, Edward S.; Leer, John; Pedemonte, Mathieu; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael
(2022-06-23)
Using a novel experimental setup, we study the direction of causality between consumers’ inflation expectations and their income growth expectations. In a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers, we find that the rate of passthrough from expected inflation to expected income growth is incomplete, on the order of 20 percent. There is no statistically significant effect going in the other direction. Passthrough varies systematically with demographic and socioeconomic factors, with greater passthrough for higher-income individuals than lower-income individuals, although it is ...
Working Papers
, Paper 22-21
Working Paper
Macroelasticities and the U.S. sequestration budget cuts
Zarazaga, Carlos E.
(2014-11-01)
Microeconomic studies keep reporting that the intertemporal substitution in consumption and the Frisch elasticity of aggregate labor supply have significantly lower values than macroeconomic models find consistent with the dynamics of aggregate variables. The paper argues that in the U.S. such dynamics have been influenced since 2013 by the temporary spending cuts imposed by the so-called budget sequestration. The paper exploits the "policy experiment" features of that measure to gauge macroelasticity values from the evidence associated with it, adopting to that effect a macroeconomic model ...
Working Papers
, Paper 1412
Journal Article
The Lasting Damage from the Financial Crisis to U.S. Productivity
Van Zandweghe, Willem; Redmond, Michael
(2016-01)
Michael Redmond and Willem Van Zandweghe find that tight credit conditions during the 2007?09 financial crisis dampened productivity, leaving it on a lower trajectory. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
Economic Review
, Issue Q I
, Pages 39-64
Working Paper
Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy
Birinci, Serdar; Karahan, Fatih; Mercan, Yusuf; See, Kurt
(2022-08)
We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the role of worker flows in inflation dynamics and monetary policy. Motivated by our empirical finding that the historical negative correlation between the unemployment rate and the employer-to-employer (EE) transition rate up to the Great Recession disappeared during the recovery, we use the model to quantify the effect of EE transitions on inflation in this period. We find that the four-quarter inflation rate would have been 0.6 percentage points higher ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2022-016
Working Paper
Estimating the Trend Unemployment Rate in the Fourth Federal Reserve District
Fallick, Bruce; Tasci, Murat
(2020-07-01)
We estimate trend unemployment rates for Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia, states that span parts of the Fourth District of the Federal Reserve System. Our estimated unemployment rate trend for the District as a whole stood at 5.7 percent in 2020:Q1 compared to a 4.7 percent observed unemployment rate within the District, implying a tight labor market by historical standards.
Working Papers
, Paper 20-19
Working Paper
Which Output Gap Estimates Are Stable in Real Time and Why?
Barbarino, Alessandro; Berge, Travis J.; Chen, Han; Stella, Andrea
(2020-12-18)
Output gaps that are estimated in real time can differ substantially from those estimated after the fact. We aim to understand the real-time instability of output gap estimates by comparing a suite of reduced-form models. We propose a new statistical decomposition and find that including a Okun’s law relationship improves real-time stability by alleviating the end-point problem. Models that include the unemployment rate also produce output gaps with relevant economic content. However, we find that no model of the output gap is clearly superior to the others along each metric we consider.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2020-102
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Business Cycles 27 items
human capital 23 items
Job Search 22 items
Vacancies 16 items
Search and Matching 14 items
inequality 13 items
Wages 12 items
monetary policy 12 items
Search frictions 11 items
productivity 11 items
labor force participation 11 items
labor markets 11 items
earnings dynamics 10 items
inflation 10 items
search 10 items
fiscal policy 9 items
Labor market 8 items
Minimum Wage 8 items
hysteresis 8 items
CARES Act 7 items
Sign Restrictions 7 items
Structural Vector Autoregressions 7 items
Supply and Demand Shocks 7 items
Labor supply 7 items
Wage Rigidity 7 items
automation 7 items
earnings 7 items
financial frictions 7 items
heterogeneity 7 items
skewness 7 items
Firm Dynamics 7 items
Intergenerational mobility 7 items
Job ladder 7 items
Costly Information 6 items
Inflows 6 items
Multiple Applications 6 items
Outflows 6 items
Paycheck Protection Program 6 items
wage dispersion 6 items
Uncertainty 6 items
labor share 6 items
Labor Productivity 6 items
income inequality 6 items
Fiscal Policy and Household Behavior 5 items
Great Recession 5 items
hours 5 items
machine learning 5 items
wage posting 5 items
Recession 5 items
Skills 5 items
Unemployment rate 5 items
credit constraints 5 items
earnings risk 5 items
kurtosis 5 items
labor demand 5 items
reallocation 5 items
Countercyclical policy 4 items
Hiring 4 items
Pareto tails 4 items
Stimulus checks 4 items
dynamic factor models 4 items
higher-order earnings risk 4 items
labor market slack 4 items
matching 4 items
natural rates 4 items
small business lending 4 items
unemployment rates 4 items
Credit 4 items
Heterogeneous agents 4 items
Pandemic 4 items
demographics 4 items
insurance 4 items
labor 4 items
life-cycle earnings risk 4 items
macroeconomics 4 items
misallocation 4 items
financial crisis 4 items
general equilibrium 4 items
Beveridge curve 3 items
Business dynamics 3 items
Economic growth 3 items
Government transfers 3 items
Monopsony 3 items
Nonlinear 3 items
O*NET 3 items
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Phillips curve 3 items
Racial Inequality 3 items
Separation Rate 3 items
UI Eligibility 3 items
Wage bargaining 3 items
consumption 3 items
education 3 items
firms 3 items
home production 3 items
income shocks 3 items
job transitions 3 items
labor force 3 items
labor market gaps 3 items
labor supply elasticity 3 items
lifetime income inequality 3 items
migration 3 items
remote work 3 items
skills mismatch 3 items
subjective expectations 3 items
subsidies on family care 3 items
wage growth 3 items
wage inflation 3 items
work from home 3 items
Bank Lending 3 items
Financial Crises 3 items
Hours Worked 3 items
Matching Function 3 items
expectations 3 items
heterogeneous firms 3 items
marketization 3 items
ASVAB 2 items
Aging 2 items
Bayesian analysis 2 items
Business cycle 2 items
Demography 2 items
Developing Countries 2 items
Development 2 items
Displacement 2 items
Diversity 2 items
Duration dependence 2 items
Educational Attainment 2 items
Employment channel of monetary policy 2 items
Entrepreneurship 2 items
Extended Kalman filter 2 items
Financial Openness 2 items
Firm Investment 2 items
Health insurance 2 items
Hispanics 2 items
Industrial Composition 2 items
Japan 2 items
Job Polarization 2 items
Job reallocation 2 items
LMCI 2 items
Labor Market Rigidity 2 items
Labor Market Search 2 items
Labor force entry 2 items
Labor income risk 2 items
Labor market frictions 2 items
Labor supply and demand 2 items
Labor supply shock 2 items
Labor wedge 2 items
Limited Enforcement 2 items
Matching Elasticity 2 items
Matching efficiency 2 items
Mincer regression 2 items
Population 2 items
Real Effects 2 items
Redistribution 2 items
Savings 2 items
Segregation 2 items
State space model 2 items
Structural Change 2 items
Synthetic control 2 items
Taxation 2 items
U.S. labor market 2 items
Unobserved heterogeneity 2 items
Wage inequality 2 items
Wealth Dynamics 2 items
Worker and firm heterogeneity 2 items
age distribution 2 items
asset accumulation 2 items
business dynamism 2 items
business expectations 2 items
capital account liberalization 2 items
consumer credit 2 items
endogenous firm entry 2 items
endogenous randomness 2 items
firm behavior 2 items
household debt 2 items
household economics 2 items
income 2 items
industry accounts 2 items
industry switching 2 items
information 2 items
input-output tables 2 items
international trade 2 items
job mobility 2 items
job-finding rates 2 items
labor market tightness 2 items
match-quality 2 items
minimum past earning requirement 2 items
persistence 2 items
potential output 2 items
preferences 2 items
randomized controlled trial 2 items
search and matching frictions 2 items
search and matching models 2 items
self-employment 2 items
shift-share 2 items
state-space models 2 items
student loans 2 items
survey expectations 2 items
taxes 2 items
time-varying parameters 2 items
top income inequality 2 items
unemployment flows 2 items
unemployment insurance benefits 2 items
unemployment spell 2 items
wage gaps 2 items
wage-price spiral 2 items
Affordable Care Act 2 items
Earnings Inequality 2 items
Labor Market Dynamics 2 items
Limited Commitment 2 items
Natural Rate of Unemployment 2 items
ACT assessment 1 items
Adjustment Costs 1 items
Aggregate Human Capital 1 items
Aggregate matching efficiency 1 items
Aggregation 1 items
Amenities 1 items
American Time Use Survey 1 items
Asymmetric Risk-Sharing 1 items
Asymmetric business cycles 1 items
Backward Map 1 items
Bankruptcy 1 items
Biased technical change 1 items
Bifurcation 1 items
Capital Taxation 1 items
Careers 1 items
Cash holdings 1 items
Chaos 1 items
China’s trade 1 items
Cobb-Douglas production function 1 items
College Graduates 1 items
College access 1 items
Commuting 1 items
Compensating differentials 1 items
Competitive Search 1 items
Competitive search equilibrium 1 items
Complex Tasks 1 items
Congestion externality 1 items
Consumer Spending 1 items
Consumer bankruptcy 1 items
Coronavirus 1 items
Corporate Income Tax 1 items
Covid pandemic 1 items
Credit Constraints and Labor Supply 1 items
Credit check 1 items
Credit crunch 1 items
Credit score 1 items
Cross-country differences in market hours 1 items
Crowding in/out 1 items
Data revisions 1 items
Debt constraints 1 items
Demand complementarity 1 items
Demand shocks 1 items
Detroit Economic Activity Index 1 items
Diamond-Mortenson-Pissarides model 1 items
Differential Fertility 1 items
Discount Factor Shocks 1 items
Distortionary taxes 1 items
Downside uncertainty 1 items
Downsizing 1 items
Dual mandate 1 items
Dynamic Roy models 1 items
Dynamic general equilibrium 1 items
Dynamism 1 items
Earned income tax credit 1 items
Earnings losses upon displacement 1 items
Economic geography 1 items
Economic indicators 1 items
Economy 1 items
Education and Wage Differentials 1 items
Education reform 1 items
Elasticity of Skill Substitution 1 items
Emergency unemployment benefits 1 items
Emerging Market Economies 1 items
Employer Reallocation 1 items
Employer Separations 1 items
Employment adjustment costs 1 items
Employment stabilization policies 1 items
Entrepreneurial choice 1 items
Entrepreneurial income 1 items
Equality of opportunity 1 items
Equilibrium search model 1 items
Essential workers 1 items
Estimation 1 items
Extended and Emergency Unemployment Benefits 1 items
Federal Reserve district 1 items
Financial Exclusion 1 items
Finding Rate 1 items
Firm entry 1 items
Firm heterogeneity 1 items
Firm size distribution 1 items
Fixed Exchange Rates 1 items
Food Stamp Program 1 items
Forward Map 1 items
Frictional labor markets 1 items
Full employment 1 items
Fundamental surplus 1 items
GDP at risk 1 items
Gender gap 1 items
Genuine duration dependence 1 items
Geographic mobility 1 items
Glass ceiling 1 items
Global VAR (GVAR) approach 1 items
Global and regional business cycles 1 items
Granularity 1 items
Growth 1 items
Growth accounting 1 items
Growth and Development 1 items
HP trend 1 items
Health-care reform 1 items
Heterogeneous Effects of Monetary Policy 1 items
Heterogeneous agent New Keynesian models 1 items
Heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) model 1 items
Hiring costs 1 items
Hiring subsidies 1 items
Household 1 items
Household balance sheets 1 items
Household finance 1 items
Household labor dynamics 1 items
Households 1 items
Housing 1 items
Housing wealth 1 items
Human Capital Risk 1 items
IT Adoption 1 items
Idiosyncratic shocks 1 items
Idiosyncratic wage changes 1 items
Implicit Contracts 1 items
Income Support 1 items
Income uncertainty 1 items
Incomplete Markets 1 items
Indeterminacy 1 items
Industry 1 items
Information Frictions 1 items
Information-and-telecommunications-technology capital (ICT) 1 items
Input-output 1 items
Internal migration 1 items
Investment 1 items
Job Market 1 items
Job applications 1 items
Job destruction 1 items
Job flows 1 items
Job loss 1 items
Job openings 1 items
Job separation 1 items
Jobless and Wageless Recovery 1 items
Jobs 1 items
Kinked Labor Supply 1 items
Kurzarbeit 1 items
Labor Contracts 1 items
Labor Search 1 items
Labor flows 1 items
Labor force composition 1 items
Labor force demographics 1 items
Labor force participation rate 1 items
Labor income 1 items
Labor market participation 1 items
Labor mobility 1 items
Labor turnover 1 items
Labor unions 1 items
Laffer curve 1 items
Layoffs 1 items
Legal form of Organization 1 items
Life Insurance 1 items
Life cycle 1 items
Life-cycle wage growth 1 items
Linked employer-employee data 1 items
Liquidity constraints 1 items
Local labor markets 1 items
Local projections 1 items
Lognormal 1 items
Long-run restrictions 1 items
Macroeconomic shocks 1 items
Manufacturing 1 items
Massachusetts health care reform 1 items
Match quality 1 items
Matching Model 1 items
Measurement error 1 items
Missing generation 1 items
Monetary Union 1 items
Money 1 items
Monopolistic competition 1 items
Monopsonistic competition 1 items
Moral hazard 1 items
Multifamily home construction 1 items
Multiple-worker firm 1 items
Natural Rate 1 items
Natural resource booms 1 items
Neighborhood Externalities 1 items
Neighborhood externality 1 items
Neighborhoods 1 items
New England 1 items
New business formation 1 items
Non-Guassian shocks 1 items
Non-compete agreements 1 items
Non-participation 1 items
Non-wage benefits 1 items
Nonlinear Solution 1 items
Nonparametric estimation 1 items
Normal mixture 1 items
Occupational Choice 1 items
Occupational Task Content 1 items
Occupational switching 1 items
Okun’s law 1 items
On-the-job search 1 items
Online Survey 1 items
Opportunity cost of employment 1 items
Optimal Monetary Policy 1 items
Optimal Taxation 1 items
Output gap 1 items
PUA 1 items
Paper floor 1 items
Pareto 1 items
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