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Working Paper
Lending Relationships and Optimal Monetary Policy
Bethune, Zachary; Wong, Russell; Rocheteau, Guillaume; Zhang, Cathy (2020-09-25)
We construct and calibrate a monetary model of corporate finance with endogenous formation of lending relationships. The equilibrium features money demands by firms that depend on their access to credit and a pecking order of financing means. We describe the mechanism through which monetary policy affects the creation of relationships and firms' incentives to use internal or external finance. We study optimal monetary policy following an unanticipated destruction of relationships under different commitment assumptions. The Ramsey solution uses forward guidance to expedite creation of new ...
Working Paper , Paper 20-13

Working Paper
Bargaining Under Liquidity Constraints: Nash vs. Kalai in the Laboratory
Duffy, John; Lebeau, Lucie; Puzzello, Daniela (2021-11-10)
We report on an experiment in which buyers and sellers engage in semi-structured bargaining in two dimensions: how much of a good the seller will produce and how much money the buyer will offer the seller in exchange. Our aim is to evaluate the empirical relevance of two axiomatic bargaining solutions, the generalized Nash bargaining solution and Kalai's proportional bargaining solution. These bargaining solutions predict different outcomes when buyers are constrained in their money holdings. We first use the case when the buyer is not liquidity constrained to estimate the bargaining power ...
Working Papers , Paper 2113

Working Paper
Understanding the Long-Run Decline in Interstate Migration: Online Appendix
Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Kaplan, Greg (2015-06-01)
This appendix contains eight sections. Section 1 gives technical details of how we calculate standard errors in the CPS data. Section 2 discusses changes in the ACS procedures before 2005. Section 3 examines demographic and economic patterns in migration over the past two decades, in more detail than in the main paper. Section 4 examines the cross-sectional variance of location-occupation interactions in earnings when we define locations by MSAs instead of states. Section 5 describes alternative methods to estimate the variance of location-occupation interactions in income. Section 6 measures ...
Working Papers , Paper 725

Working Paper
Escaping the Great Recession
Melosi, Leonardo; Bianchi, Francesco (2016-09-16)
We show that policy uncertainty about how the rising public debt will be stabilized accounts for the lack of deflation in the US economy at the zero lower bound. We first estimate a Markov-switching VAR to highlight that a zero-lower-bound regime captures most of the comovements during the Great Recession: a deep recession, no deflation, and large fiscal imbalances. We then show that a micro-founded model that features policy uncertainty accounts for these stylized facts. Finally, we highlight that policy uncertainty arises at the zero lower bound because of a trade-off between mitigating the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2016-16

Working Paper
More on Middlemen: Equilibrium Entry and Efficiency in Intermediated Markets
Nosal, Ed; Wright, Randall; Wong, Yuet-Yee (2014-11-01)
This paper generalizes Rubinstein and Wolinsky?s model of middlemen (intermediation) by incorporating production and search costs, plus more general matching and bargaining. This allows us to study many new issues, including entry, efficiency and dynamics. In the benchmark model, equilibrium exists uniquely, and involves production and intermediation for some parameters but not others. Sometimes intermediation is essential: the market operates iff middlemen are active. If bargaining powers are set correctly equilibrium is efficient; if not there can be too much or too little economic ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2014-18

Working Paper
Goods-Market Frictions and International Trade
McCallum, Andrew H.; Krolikowski, Pawel (2019-08-01)
We add goods-market frictions to a general equilibrium dynamic model with heterogeneous exporting producers and identical importing retailers. Our tractable framework leads to endogenously unmatched producers, which attenuate welfare responses to foreign shocks but increase the trade elasticity relative to a model without search costs. Search frictions are quantitatively important in our calibration, attenuating welfare responses to tariffs by 40 percent and increasing the trade elasticity by 50 percent. Eliminating search costs raises welfare by 1 percent and increasing them by only a few ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-35R2

Working Paper
The Over-the-Counter Theory of the Fed Funds Market: A Primer
Afonso, Gara M.; Lagos, Ricardo (2014-04-18)
We present a dynamic over-the-counter model of the fed funds market and use it to study the determination of the fed funds rate, the volume of loans traded, and the intraday evolution of the distribution of reserve balances across banks. We also investigate the implications of changes in the market structure, as well as the effects of central bank policy instruments such as open market operations, the discount window lending rate, and the interest rate on bank reserves.
Working Papers , Paper 711

Report
The over-the-counter theory of the fed funds market: a primer
Afonso, Gara M.; Lagos, Ricardo (2014-12-01)
We present a dynamic over-the-counter model of the fed funds market, and use it to study the determination of the fed funds rate, the volume of loans traded, and the intraday evolution of the distribution of reserve balances across banks. We also investigate the implications of changes in the market structure, as well as the effects of central bank policy instruments such as open market operations, the Discount Window lending rate, and the interest rate on bank reserves.
Staff Reports , Paper 660

Working Paper
Building Credit History with Heterogeneously Informed Lenders
Zetlin-Jones, Ariel; Kovrijnykh, Natalia; Livshits, Igor (2019-03-13)
This paper examines a novel mechanism of credit-history building as a way of aggregating information across multiple lenders. We build a dynamic model with multiple competing lenders, who have heterogeneous private information about a consumer's creditworthiness, and extend credit over multiple stages. Acquiring a loan at an early stage serves as a positive signal | it allows the borrower to convey to other lenders the existence of a positively informed lender (advancing that early loan) | thereby convincing other lenders to extend further credit in future stages. This signaling may be costly ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-17

Journal Article
The Geography of Housing Market Liquidity During the Great Recession
Hedlund, Aaron; Famiglietti, Matthew; Garriga, Carlos (2020)
Using detailed micro data at the ZIP code level, this article explores the regional variation in housing market performance to account for the severity of the Great Recession. The granularity of the data, relative to a more traditional analysis at the county level, is useful for evaluating the performance of the housing market because credit and local macroeconomic variables are tied to housing valuations. The deterioration of the ability to transact (buy and sell) housing units, often referred to as housing liquidity, is an important link that connects housing outcomes with real and credit ...
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 1 , Pages 51-77

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