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Working Paper
Intellectual Property, Tariffs, and International Trade Dynamics
Waddle, Andrea L.; Mandelman, Federico S. (2019-05-01)
The emergence of global value chains not only leads to a magnification of trade in intermediate inputs but also to an extensive technology diffusion among the different production units involved in arms-length relationships. In this context, the lack of enforcement of intellectual property rights has recently become a highly controversial subject of debate in the context of the China-U.S. trade negotiations. This paper analyzes the strategic interaction of tariff policies and the enforcement of intellectual property rights within a quantitative general equilibrium framework. Results indicate ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2019-10

Working Paper
Possible Unintended Effects of Restrictions on Foreign Lobbying in a Customs Union
Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu; Lahiri, Sajal (2012)
We consider the interactions between domestic lobbying and cross-border lobbying in a Customs Union (CU) in determining the Common External Tariff (CET). There are two types of cross-border lobbying: (i) lobbying from member-nation firms to the governments of other CU countries, and (ii) lobbying by firms from outside to the CU nation governments. Within this context, we analyze the effect of regulations on foreign lobbying on the equilibrium lobbying levels, and on the CET. If lobbying levels are strategic complements, tightening of restrictions on lobbying from outside the CU unambiguously ...
Working Papers , Paper 2012-061

Working Paper
Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?
Che, Yi; Tao, Zhigang; Lu, Yi; Schott, Peter K.; Pierce, Justin R. (2016-03)
This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on U.S. Congressional elections. We find that U.S. counties subject to greater competition from China via a change in U.S. trade policy exhibit relative increases in turnout, the share of votes cast for Democrats and the probability that the county is represented by a Democrat. We find that these changes are consistent with Democrats in office being more likely than Republicans to support legislation limiting import competition or favoring economic assistance.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-039

Journal Article
Price Equalization Does Not Imply Free Trade
Riezman, Raymond; Ravikumar, B.; Mutreja, Piyusha; Sposi, Michael (2015)
In this article, the authors demonstrate the possibility of price equalization in a two-country world with barriers to international trade. For price equalization to occur when the countries are asymmetric, the country with higher productivity must also be the one with the lower trade barrier. A corollary of the authors? result is that small departures from purchasing power parity do not necessarily imply that world trade is mostly integrated.
Review , Volume 97 , Issue 4 , Pages 323-39

Report
How did China’s WTO entry benefit U.S. prices?
Feenstra, Robert C.; Romalis, John; Dai, Mi; Amiti, Mary (2017-06-01)
We analyze the effects of China?s rapid export expansion following World Trade Organization (WTO) entry on U.S. prices, exploiting cross-industry variation in trade liberalization. Lower input tariffs boosted Chinese firms? productivity, lowered costs, and, in conjunction with reduced U.S. tariff uncertainty, expanded export participation. We find that China?s WTO entry significantly reduced variety-adjusted U.S. manufacturing price indexes between 2000 and 2006. For the Chinese components of these indexes, one-third of the beneficial impact comes from Chinese exporters lowering their prices, ...
Staff Reports , Paper 817

Working Paper
Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector
Flaaen, Aaron; Pierce, Justin R. (2019-12-26)
Since the beginning of 2018, the United States has undertaken unprecedented tariff increases, with one goal of these actions being to boost the manufacturing sector. In this paper, we estimate the effect of the tariffs---including retaliatory tariffs by U.S. trading partners---on manufacturing employment, output, and producer prices. A key feature of our analysis is accounting for the multiple ways that tariffs might affect the manufacturing sector, including providing protection for domestic industries, raising costs for imported inputs, and harming competitiveness in overseas markets due ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-086

Working Paper
What are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the U.S. and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models
Sager, Erick; Jaravel, Xavier (2019-09-20)
This paper finds that U.S. consumer prices fell substantially due to increased trade with China. With comprehensive price micro-data and two complementary identification strategies, we estimate that a 1pp increase in import penetration from China causes a 1.91% decline in consumer prices. This price response is driven by declining markups for domestically-produced goods, and is one order of magnitude larger than in standard trade models that abstract from strategic price-setting. The estimates imply that trade with China increased U.S. consumer surplus by about $400,000 per displaced job, and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-068

Discussion Paper
Using Stock Returns to Assess the Aggregate Effect of the U.S.‑China Trade War
Amiti, Mary; Gomez, Matthieu; Kong, Sang Hoon; Weinstein, David E. (2024-12-04)
During 2018-19, the U.S. levied import tariffs of 10 to 50 percent on more than $300 billion of imports from China, and in response China retaliated with high tariffs of its own on U.S. exports. Estimating the aggregate impact of the trade war on the U.S. economy is challenging because tariffs can affect the economy through many different channels. In addition to changing relative prices, tariffs can impact productivity and economic uncertainty. Moreover, these effects can take years to become apparent in the data, and it is difficult to know what the future implications of a tariff are ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20241204

Working Paper
Export Tax Rebates and Resource Misallocation: Evidence from a Large Developing Country
Yasar, Mahmut; Weinberger, Ariel; Xuefeng, Qian (2017-01-01)
The export tax rebate (ETR) policy is one of the most frequently used policy instruments by Chinese policy makers. This paper therefore provides a vital analysis of its allocation effects. To motivate our empirical analysis for the allocation effects of the ETR policy, we first add a tax rebate to the Melitz and Ottaviano (2008) model and examine the impact of this policy on firms' markup size and resource allocation between eligible and non-eligible firms for the rebates. We use customs transactions, tax administration, and firm-level data to measure the effect of variation in export tax ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 302

Journal Article
Global Supply Chain Disruptions and Inflation During the COVID-19 Pandemic
LaBelle, Jesse; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2022)
We investigate the role supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic played in U.S. producer price index (PPI) inflation. We exploit pre-pandemic cross-industry variation in sourcing patterns across countries and interact it with measures of international supply chain bottlenecks during the pandemic. We show that exposure to global supply chain disruptions played a significant role in U.S. cross-industry PPI inflation between January and November 2021. If bottlenecks had followed the same path as in 2019, PPI inflation in the manufacturing sector would have been 2 percentage points ...
Review , Volume 104 , Issue 2 , Pages 78-91

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