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Working Paper
Oil Curse, Economic Growth and Trade Openness
Vespignani, Joaquin L.; Raghavan, Mala; Majumder, Monoj Kumar (2019-10-01)
An important economic paradox that frequently arises in the economic literature is that countries with abundant natural resources are poor in terms of real gross domestic product per capita. This paradox, known as the ?resource curse,? is contrary to the conventional intuition that natural resources help to improve economic growth and prosperity. Using panel data for 95 countries, this study revisits the resource curse paradox in terms of oil resource abundance for the period 1980?2017. In addition, the study examines the role of trade openness in influencing the relationship between oil ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 370

Working Paper
The Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Tariffs
Bianchi, Javier; Coulibaly, Louphou (2025-03-07)
What is the optimal monetary policy response to tariffs? This paper explores this question within an open-economy New Keynesian model and shows that the optimal monetary policy response is expansionary, with inflation rising above and beyond the direct effects of tariffs. This result holds regardless of whether tariffs apply to consumption goods or intermediate inputs, whether the shock is temporary or permanent, and whether tariffs address other distortions.
Working Papers , Paper 810

Working Paper
The 2025 Trade War: Dynamic Impacts Across U.S. States and the Global Economy
Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés; Ulate, Mauricio; Vasquez, Jose P. (2025-04-22)
We use a dynamic trade and reallocation model with downward nominal wage rigidities to quantitatively assess the economic consequences of the recent increase in the U.S. tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, as well as the “reciprocal” tariff changes announced on “Liberation Day” and retaliatory measures by other countries. Higher tariffs trigger an expansion in U.S. manufacturing employment, but this comes at the expense of declines in service and agricultural employment, with overall employment declining as lower real wages reduce labor-force participation. For the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2025-09

Working Paper
Trade partner diversification and growth: how trade links matter
Yilmazkuday, Hakan; Onder, Ali Sina (2014-09-01)
We use network centrality measures to capture the trade partner diversification (TPD) of countries as revealed by their position in the international trade network. These measures are shown to enter long-run growth regressions positively and significantly, on top of trade openness and other control variables. Historical evidence based on threshold analyses shows that countries can use their trade networks to compensate for their low levels of financial depth, high levels of inflation, and low levels of human capital. This result is important especially for developing economies where, on ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 192

Working Paper
The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty
Molligo, Patrick; Caldara, Dario; Prestipino, Andrea; Iacoviello, Matteo; Raffo, Andrea (2019-09)
We study the effects of unexpected changes in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the U.S. economy. We construct three measures of TPU based on newspaper coverage, firms' earnings conference calls, and aggregate data on tari rates. We document that increases in TPU reduce investment and activity using both firm-level and aggregate macroeconomic data. We interpret the empirical results through the lens of a two-country general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and firms' export participation decisions. In the model as in the data, news and increased uncertainty about higher future ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1256

Journal Article
The Trade-Offs of Counterterrorism Policies
Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu; Sandler, Todd (2023-07-14)
This article provides a modern overview of counterterrorism tools and their trade-offs for curbing terrorist attacks and their consequences. Defensive and proactive countermeasures constitute two main classes of counterterror tools deployed by targeted governments. The primary drawback of defensive actions, which make terrorist attacks more costly and less apt to succeed, is attack transference that shifts the mode, venue, or target of attacks to those less protected. In contrast, offensive proactive measures, which confront the terrorists directly, may result in backlash as terrorist ...
Review , Volume 105 , Issue 3 , Pages 177-197

Journal Article
The Economic Effects of the 2018 U.S. Trade Policy: A State-Level Analysis
Peake, Makenzie; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2020-10-22)
We evaluate, empirically, the effect of changes in trade policy during the 2018-19 trade war on U.S. economic activity. We begin by documenting that sectors and states across the United States are heterogeneous in their exposure to international trade. To do that, we construct a measure of exposure that combines the share of a sector’s gross output that is accounted for by trade with the pattern of comparative advantage of each state in that sector. We then exploit cross-state heterogeneity in exposure to international trade and correlate it with measures of economic activity across U.S. ...
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 4 , Pages 385-412

Discussion Paper
Using Stock Returns to Assess the Aggregate Effect of the U.S.‑China Trade War
Amiti, Mary; Gomez, Matthieu; Kong, Sang Hoon; Weinstein, David E. (2024-12-04)
During 2018-19, the U.S. levied import tariffs of 10 to 50 percent on more than $300 billion of imports from China, and in response China retaliated with high tariffs of its own on U.S. exports. Estimating the aggregate impact of the trade war on the U.S. economy is challenging because tariffs can affect the economy through many different channels. In addition to changing relative prices, tariffs can impact productivity and economic uncertainty. Moreover, these effects can take years to become apparent in the data, and it is difficult to know what the future implications of a tariff are ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20241204

Working Paper
Artificial Intelligence Methods for Evaluating Global Trade Flows
Monken, Anderson; Gopinath, Munisamy; Batarseh, Feras A. (2020-08-20)
International trade policies remain in the spotlight given the recent rethink on the benefits of globalization by major economies. Since trade critically affects employment, production, prices and wages, understanding and predicting future patterns of trade is a high-priority for decision making within and across countries. While traditional economic models aim to be reliable predictors, we consider the possibility that Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques allow for better predictions and associations to inform policy decisions. Moreover, we outline contextual AI methods to decipher trade ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1296

Working Paper
The Employment Consequences of Anti-Dumping Tariffs: Lessons from Brazil
de Souza, Gustavo; Li, Haishi (2022-10-05)
Can anti-dumping tariffs increase employment? We compile data on all antidumping (AD) investigations in Brazil matching it to firm-level administrative employment information. Using difference-in-differences, we find that an AD tariff decreases imports and increases employment in the protected sector. Moreover, downstream firms decrease employment, while upstream ones are not affected. To quantify the aggregate effect of these tariffs, we build a model with international trade, input-output linkages, and labor force participation. We show that the Brazilian AD policy increased employment by ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2022-46

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