Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?

RePEc Short ID: ppi197
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2744-5918

Che, Yi; Lu, Yi; Pierce, Justin R.; Schott, Peter K.; Tao, Zhigang

doi:10.17016/FEDS.2016.039

Working Paper

Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on U.S. Congressional elections. We find that U.S. counties subject to greater competition from China via a change in U.S. trade policy exhibit relative increases in turnout, the share of votes cast for Democrats and the probability that the county is represented by a Democrat. We find that these changes are consistent with Democrats in office being more likely than Republicans to support legislation limiting import competition or favoring economic assistance.

Keywords: China; Voting; Elections; Import Competition; Normal Trade Relations; World Trade Organization;

JEL Classification: F13; F16; D72;

https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2016.039