Working Paper

Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on U.S. Congressional elections. We find that U.S. counties subject to greater competition from China via a change in U.S. trade policy exhibit relative increases in turnout, the share of votes cast for Democrats and the probability that the county is represented by a Democrat. We find that these changes are consistent with Democrats in office being more likely than Republicans to support legislation limiting import competition or favoring economic assistance.

Keywords: China; Voting; Elections; Import Competition; Normal Trade Relations; World Trade Organization;

JEL Classification: F13; F16; D72;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Part of Series: Finance and Economics Discussion Series

Publication Date: 2016-03

Number: 2016-039

Pages: 40 pages