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Series:Research Working Paper 

Working Paper
Private money, settlement, and discount : a comment

Temzelides and Williamson present a model of private currency issuance to study the effect of clearing arrangements on the prices at which private currencies trade, on the volume of exchange, and on welfare. Their findings hinge on three factors: the location of the issuers relative to the area in which their currencies circulate, whether there is an arrangement for clearing nonlocally issued currencies, and whether agents are fully informed about the quality of the currencies. This paper finds that the Temzelides-Williamson model provides valuable insights about historical experiences with ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 00-01

Working Paper
Wages and prices: an international comparison

Research Working Paper , Paper 87-06

Working Paper
Money supply announcements and real economic activity

Research Working Paper , Paper 89-10

Working Paper
Government Loan Guarantees during a Crisis: The Effect of the PPP on Bank Lending and Profitability

We study bank responses to the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and its effects on lender balance sheets and profitability. To address the endogeneity between bank decisions and balance sheet effects, we develop a Bayesian joint model that examines the decision to participate, the intensity of participation, and ultimate balance sheet outcomes. Overall, lenders were driven by risk-aversion and funding capacity rather than profitability in their decision to participate and the intensity of their participation. Indeed, with greater participation intensity, banks experienced sizable growth in ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 21-03

Working Paper
Lender exposure and effort in the syndicated loan market

This paper tests for agency problems between the lead arranger and syndicate participants in the syndicated loan market. One problem comes from adverse selection, whereby the lead arranger has a private informational advantage over participants. A second problem comes from moral hazard, whereby the lead arranger puts less effort in monitoring when it retains a smaller loan portion. Applying an instrumental variables strategy, I find that borrowers' performance is influenced by the lead's share. Dynamic tests extract active contributions made by the lead, supporting a monitoring ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 10-12

Working Paper
Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities

A body of recent work suggests commonly?used VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts from a VAR. These methods include using different approaches to lag selection, different observation windows for estimation, (over-) differencing, intercept correction, stochastically time?varying parameters, break dating, discounted least squares, Bayesian shrinkage, and detrending of inflation and interest rates. Although each ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 06-12

Working Paper
Inflation targeting and private sector forecasts

Transparency is one of the biggest innovations in central bank policy of the past quarter century. Modern central bankers believe that they should be as clear about their objectives and actions as possible. However, is greater transparency always beneficial? Recent work suggests that when private agents have diverse sources of information, public information can cause them to overreact to the signals from the central bank, leading the economy to be too sensitive to common forecast errors. Greater transparency could be destabilizing. While this theoretical result has clear intuitive appeal, it ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 10-01

Working Paper
Loan losses and bank risk-taking: is there a connection?

Research Working Paper , Paper 88-04

Working Paper
The roles of price points and menu costs in price rigidity

Macroeconomic models often generate nominal price rigidity via menu costs. This paper provides empirical evidence that treating menu costs as a structural explanation for sticky prices may be spurious. Using supermarket scanner data, I note two empirical facts: (1) price points, embodied in nine-ending prices, account for more than 60 percent of prices; (2) at the conclusion of sales, post-sale prices return to their pre-sale levels nearly 90 percent of the time. I construct a model that nests roles for menu costs and price points and estimate model variants via simulated method of moments. ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 10-18

Working Paper
Model uncertainty and intertemporal tax smoothing

In this paper we examine how model uncertainty due to the preference for robustness (RB) affects optimal taxation and debt structure in the Barro tax-smoothing model (1979). We first study how the government spending shocks are absorbed in the short run by varying taxes or through debt under RB. Furthermore, we show that introducing RB can improve the model?s predictions by generating (i) the observed relative volatility of the changes in tax rates to government spending and (ii) the observed comovement between government deficits and spending, and (iii) more consistent behavior of government ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 12-01

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