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Journal Article
Rising Productivity, Declining Population Impact Russia's Economy
Despite strong growth, Russia?s GDP per capita is still only about 15 percent of that of the U.S. Although Russia is becoming more productive, it?s hampered by a decline in population.
Working Paper
The Baby Boomers and the Productivity Slowdown
The entry of baby boomers into the labor market in the 1970s slowed growth for physical and human capital per worker because young workers have little of both. Thus, the baby boom could have contributed to the 1970s productivity slowdown. I build and calibrate a model a la Huggett et al. (2011) with exogenous population and TFP to evaluate this theory. The baby boom accounts for 75% of the slowdown in the period 1964-69, 25% in 1970-74 and 2% in 1975-79. The retiring of baby boomers may cause a 2.8pp decline in productivity growth between 2020 and 2040, ceteris paribus.
Journal Article
Comparing Japan’s Lost Decade with the U.S. Great Recession
Japan's economy began its "Lost Decade" in the 1990s, with persistent slow growth and low inflation. One could argue, however, that the Lost Decade has persisted for nearly three decades.
Journal Article
Aging and Wealth Inequality
An aging population may reduce wealth inequality.
COVID-19 and the Importance of Testing
Using only the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases does not help us understand the scope of the pandemic.
Journal Article
Living Arrangements Matter Not Just to Your Parents but Also to Policymakers
The decision to look for a job, as well as some measures of income inequality, are closely connected with the living arrangements people choose and, therefore, are important to policymakers.
Journal Article
Multiple Jobholders
The most likely candidates to hold multiple jobs are not who you would expect.
Journal Article
Aging and Wealth Inequality in a Neoclassical Growth Model
In this article, the author uses a version of the neoclassical growth model with overlapping generations of individuals to investigate the effect of aging on wealth inequality. When an economy?s population becomes older?that is, when the proportion of individuals 65 years of age and older increases?two effects are at work: a direct effect from the changing age composition of the population and an indirect, equilibrium effect from the change in asset holdings by owner?s age. The main result is that wealth inequality in an aging population may decrease or increase depending on the cause of the ...
Journal Article
Why Are Life-Cycle Earnings Profiles Getting Flatter?
The authors present a simple, two-period model of human capital accumulation on the job and through college attainment. They use a calibrated version of the model to explain the observed flattening of the life-cycle earnings profiles of two cohorts of workers. The model accounts for more than 55 percent of the observed flattening for high school-educated and for college-educated workers. Two channels generate the flattening in the model: selection (or higher college attainment) and a higher skill price for the more recent cohort. Absent selection, the model would have accounted for no ...
Journal Article
Worker Diversity and Wage Growth Since 1940
Since 1940 the average worker has become older, more educated, more likely to be a woman, less likely to be White, and slightly less likely to be single. How has this evolution of the average worker affected wage growth, that is, the wage of the average worker? We conduct two sets of experiments: First, we decompose wage growth between a “growth effect” and a “distribution effect.” The former measures the effect of a change in the wage function, associating wages with worker types; the latter measures the effect of the changing distribution of worker types. Both effects contribute ...