A quantitative analysis of China’s structural transformation
Between 1978 and 2003 the Chinese economy experienced a remarkable 5.7 percent annual growth of GDP per labor. At the same time, there has been a noticeable transformation of the economy: the share of workers in agriculture decreased from over 70 percent to less than 50 percent. We distinguish three sectors: private agriculture and nonagriculture and public nonagriculture. A growth accounting exercise reveals that the main source of growth was TFP in the private nonagricultural sector. The reallocation of labor from agriculture to nonagriculture accounted for 1.9 percent out of the 5.7 ...
The State of COVID-19 around the Eighth District
What have COVID-19 trends in cases and deaths looked like in the largest MSAs in the District?
Evolution of the Teen Abortion Rate in the United States
The number of teenage girls who have had an abortion has changed noticeably since the 1970s.
The Lost Weeks of COVID-19 Testing in the United States: Part II
In the U.S., the weeks lost due to inaction during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic helped spread the virus.
Aging and Wealth Inequality in a Neoclassical Growth Model
In this article, the author uses a version of the neoclassical growth model with overlapping generations of individuals to investigate the effect of aging on wealth inequality. When an economy?s population becomes older?that is, when the proportion of individuals 65 years of age and older increases?two effects are at work: a direct effect from the changing age composition of the population and an indirect, equilibrium effect from the change in asset holdings by owner?s age. The main result is that wealth inequality in an aging population may decrease or increase depending on the cause of the ...
Fertility Shocks and Equilibrium Marriage-Rate Dynamics
Why did the marriage probability of single females in France after World War 1 rise 50% above its pre-war average, despite a 33% drop in the male/female singles ratio? We conjecture that war-time disruption of the marriage market generated an abnormal abundance of men with relatively high marriage propensities. Our model of matching over the lifecycle, when calibrated to pre-war data and two war-time shocks, succeeds in matching the French time path under the additional assumption of a pro-natalist post-war preference shock. We conclude that endogeneity issues make the sex ratio a potentially ...
Taking a Closer Look at Marital Status and the Earnings Gap
Research suggests that married men’s higher income account for a significant portion of the U.S. gender earnings gap. Does this also hold when race is considered?
Geographic Dispersion in COVID-19 Death Rates across the United States
Geographic dispersion in the share of African Americans likely accounts for the dispersion of COVID-19-related deaths.
The Lost Weeks of COVID-19 Testing in the United States: Part I
The weeks lost due to inaction in the U.S. during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in rationing of tests and a large number of confirmed cases.
Observing the Earnings Gap through Marital Status, Race and Gender
In addition to race and gender, marital status appears to play a role in the earnings gap.