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Working Paper
Technology adoption, mortality and population dynamics
Hejkal, John P.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Ravikumar, B. (2021-05)
We develop a quantitative theory of mortality trends and population dynamics. Our theory emphasizes individual choices on costly adoption of healthy technologies and diffusion of knowledge about infections as a key channel for reducing mortality. Our theory is consistent with three observations on mortality: (i) The cross-country correlation between levels of mortality and income is negative; (ii) mortality in poor countries has converged to that of rich countries despite no convergence in income; and (iii) economic growth is not a prerequisite for mortality to decline. We calibrate our model ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-039

Working Paper
Technology Adoption, Mortality, and Population Dynamics
Hejkal, John P.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Ravikumar, B. (2024-02)
We develop a quantitative theory of mortality and population dynamics. We emphasize individuals' decisions to reduce their mortality by adopting better health technology. Adoption becomes cheaper as more individuals use better technology. It also confers a dynamic externality by increasing the future number of individuals who use the better technology. Our model generates a diffusion curve whose shape dictates the pace of mortality reduction. The model explains historical trends in mortality rates and life expectancies at various ages and population dynamics in Western Europe. Unlike ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-039

Working Paper
Lifetime Work Hours and the Evolution of the Gender Wage Gap
Leukhina, Oksana; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2025-02-03)
The gender wage gap expanded between 1940 and 1975 but narrowed sharply between 1980 and 1995. We use a human capital accumulation model introduced in Ben-Porath (1967) to assess the role of gender differences in life-cycle profiles of market time and occupation sorting in explaining the gender wage gap dynamics over the long run. Men’s aggregate hours profiles changed little across cohorts, but women’s profiles converged to those of men, and especially so in higher-paying occupations. We calibrate the model to wage data by age, year, gender and occupation, and find that changing time ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-025

Working Paper
A quantitative analysis of China’s structural transformation
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Dekle, Robert (2006)
Between 1978 and 2003 the Chinese economy experienced a remarkable 5.7 percent annual growth of GDP per labor. At the same time, there has been a noticeable transformation of the economy: the share of workers in agriculture decreased from over 70 percent to less than 50 percent. We distinguish three sectors: private agriculture and nonagriculture and public nonagriculture. A growth accounting exercise reveals that the main source of growth was TFP in the private nonagricultural sector. The reallocation of labor from agriculture to nonagriculture accounted for 1.9 percent out of the 5.7 ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2006-37

Working Paper
On the Economic Mechanics of Warfare
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2023-04)
A large literature is concerned with the consequences of war-related expenditures and how to finance them. Yet, there is little by way of understanding how expenditures affect the outcomes of wars, e.g., prevailing side, duration, or total destruction. I present a model of attrition in which I characterize the effects of resources on the outcomes of war for a military conclusion (when one side cannot fight anymore) and a political conclusion (when one side does not want to fight anymore). I discuss the role of GDP for both types of conclusions. I also analyze the mechanics of third-party ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-007

Journal Article
Perspectives on U.S. Media Coverage of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2021-11-23)
How have the U.S. media covered the evolution of COVID-19? This article discusses a working paper about media negativity during the pandemic.
The Regional Economist

Working Paper
The Evolution of Lifetime Hours and the Gender Wage Gap
Leukhina, Oksana; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2023-09)
The gender wage gap decreased (opened) from 1940 to 1975 and then increased (closed) until 2010. We use the model introduced in Ben-Porath (1967) to assess the role of gender differences in life cycle profiles of market time in explaining this dynamics. Men's profiles changed little across cohorts, but women's profiles converged to that of men implying, eventually, stronger incentives for women to accumulate human capital. We calibrate the model and find that (1) The 1940-75 decrease of the gap was because men valued human capital more than women due to their working more. The 1975-10 ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-025

COVID-19: Projected Deaths in the U.S.
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Ravikumar, B. (2020-03-31)
This post documents COVID-19-related deaths in a few countries and uses those data to provide projections for the U.S.
On the Economy

The Earnings Premium for U.S. Veterans
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2022-11-10)
An analysis of 2019 data suggests that female veterans and male veterans have earnings premiums of 5.9% and 4.1%, respectively, relative to their nonveteran peers.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Technology adoption, mortality, and population dynamics
Hejkal, John P.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Ravikumar, B. (2024-07)
We develop a quantitative theory of mortality and population dynamics. We emphasize individuals' decisions to reduce their mortality by adopting better health technology. Adoption becomes cheaper as more individuals use better technology. It also confers a dynamic externality by increasing the future number of individuals who use the better technology. Our model generates a diffusion curve whose shape dictates the pace of mortality reduction. The model explains historical trends in mortality rates and life expectancies at various ages and population dynamics in Western Europe. Unlike ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-039

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