Technology adoption, mortality and population dynamics

RePEc Short ID: pra33
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6991-4677

Hejkal, John P.; Ravikumar, B.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume

doi:10.20955/wp.2020.039

Working Paper Revision

Technology adoption, mortality and population dynamics

Abstract: We develop a quantitative theory of mortality trends and population dynamics. Our theory emphasizes individual choices on costly adoption of healthy technologies and diffusion of knowledge about infections as a key channel for reducing mortality. Our theory is consistent with three observations on mortality: (i) The cross-country correlation between levels of mortality and income is negative; (ii) mortality in poor countries has converged to that of rich countries despite no convergence in income; and (iii) economic growth is not a prerequisite for mortality to decline. We calibrate our model to the time series of crude death rates in Sweden. We then simulate the time series of crude death rates for 87 countries from 1960 to 2018. Our model accounts for the static negative correlation, 99% of the convergence of mortality; and, as in the data, countries with negative growth do experience decreasing mortality, and no country with increasing mortality experiences negative growth. The model reproduces the change in population and its distribution across countries. For instance, total population increased by 3.1 billion and the model accounts for 97% of the increase and the fact that almost one half of this increase is due to poor countries.

Keywords: Mortality; population dynamics; technology adoption; diffusion;

JEL Classification: E13; I12; I15; J11;

https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2020.039