Technology Adoption, Mortality, and Population Dynamics

RePEc Short ID: pra33
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6991-4677

Hejkal, John P.; Ravikumar, B.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume

doi:10.20955/wp.2020.039

Working Paper Revision

Technology Adoption, Mortality, and Population Dynamics

Abstract: We develop a quantitative theory of mortality and population dynamics. We emphasize individuals' decisions to reduce their mortality by adopting better health technology. Adoption confers a dynamic externality: Adoption becomes cheaper as more individuals use better technology. Our model generates a diffusion curve, whose shape dictates the pace of mortality reduction. The model explains historical trends in mortality rates and life expectancies at various ages, and population dynamics in Western Europe. Unlike Malthusian theories based solely on income, ours is consistent with the observed disconnect between mortality and income. Unlike Beckerian theories based solely on fertility, ours accounts for the observed acceleration in population.

Keywords: mortality; life expectancy; population dynamics; technology diffusion; convergence;

JEL Classification: I12; I15; J11; E13;

https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2020.039