Can the stock market tell bank supervisors anything they don't already know?
This article provides evidence consistent with recent policy proposals calling for a greater role for market forces in promoting a safe and sound financial system. The authors' empirical results indicate a measure of expected default probability distilled from equity prices helps predict the financial condition of individual banking organizations, as reflected in their supervisory ratings. Moreover, the stock market data have predictive power over and above the information in the quarterly financial statements available to supervisors between inspections. These findings suggest financial ...
Redlining or red herring?
Has the housing boom increased mortgage risk?
Between a rock and a hard place: the CRA-safety and soundness pinch
A statistical model of regulatory exam ratings provides evidence of conflict between Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) objectives, on one side, and safety and soundness standards, on the other. In his analysis of supervisory goals, Jeff Gunther finds that concentrating bank assets in loans and managing capital at relatively low levels tend to help CRA ratings while hurting CAMEL ratings. Also, banks with financial problems are more likely to receive substandard CRA ratings, even though a shift in resources away from CRA objectives may be necessary to facilitate financial recovery. These ...
Small banks' competitors loom large
Financiers of the world, disunite
Diversity across banks and other financial firms promotes a resilient financial system because differing risk profiles reduce the likelihood of systemic crises caused by shared economic shocks. Consolidation and uniformity among banks and other financial intermediaries do the opposite. ; Yet some have suggested that any policy steps to reverse the financial system?s dramatic consolidation might yield little stability benefit because herd-like behavior among financial firms could still reduce diversity and mitigate any strengthening. If these firms moved in concert, the argument goes, they ...
Geographic liberalization and the accessibility of banking services in rural areas
This study assesses the degree to which the liberalization of geographic banking restrictions has lived up to its promise of enhancing service accessibility in rural areas. The empirical framework is distinguished by a focus on changes in accessibility, as opposed to levels. While previous research has produced mixed results on the benefits of greater geographic powers for service accessibility in rural communities, the results reported here point unambiguously to a positive relationship between expansion opportunities and accessibility. Both OLS and ordinallevel probit regressions indicate ...
Industry mix and lending environment variability: what does the average bank face
Diversification opportunities for banks may be greater today because of the lessening of geographic restrictions. In addition, regional economies have undergone vast transformations, with relatively volatile industries often assuming a diminished role. To assess whether these changes have resulted in a more stable lending environment, Jeff Gunther and Ken Robinson form industry portfolios for banks based on their presence in different states and the mix of economic activity found in those states. The authors find that the risk underlying banks' lending environments declined from 1985 to 1996 ...