Search Results
Conference Paper
The effect of population aging on aggregate labor supply in the United States
Output growth is determined by growth in labor productivity and growth in labor input. Over the past two decades, technological developments have changed how many economists think about growth in labor productivity. However, in the coming decades, the aging of the population will change how economists think about the growth in labor input in the United States. As the oldest baby boomers born in 1946 turned 50, then 55, and then 60, an important economic change has slowly surfaced: these people have become less likely to participate in the labor force. While this shift was obscured by a labor ...
Monograph
The effect of population aging on aggregate labor supply in the United States
Output growth is determined by growth in labor productivity and growth in labor input. Over the past two decades, technological developments have changed how many economists think about growth in labor productivity. However, in the coming decades, the aging of the population will change how economists think about the growth in labor input in the United States. As the oldest baby boomers born in 1946 turned 50, then 55, and then 60, an important economic change has slowly surfaced: these people have become less likely to participate in the labor force. While this shift was obscured by a labor ...
Working Paper
The Impact of the Age Distribution on Unemployment: Evidence from US States
Economists have studied the potential effects of shifts in the age distribution on the unemployment rate for more than 50 years. Most of this analysis uses a “shift-share” method, which assumes that the demographic structure has no indirect effects on age-specific unemployment rates. This paper uses state-level data to revisit the influence of the age distribution on unemployment in the United States. We examine demographic effects across the entire age distribution rather than just the youth share of the population—the focus of most previous work—and extend the date range of analysis ...
Journal Article
The "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" Labor Market
Hires and quits have been low during the strong labor market over the past year or so, when layoffs have also been low. This combination is historically unusual. However, it is likely a continuation of long-term trends rather than something unique to the current period.
Journal Article
A Fracturing Wage Floor? Below-Minimum Wages in the Twenty-First Century
Recent data suggest a growing prevalence and magnitude of below-minimum wages, including minimum-wage violations, in the United States in the twenty-first century. In the 10 most populous states, the incidence of likely minimum wage violations reached its highest level in 2025. Among workers experiencing violations, the average amount of underpayment reached its highest level in 2023. In the Fourth Federal Reserve District, however, we observe notable deviations from national trends, with declining incidence of minimum-wage violations since 2007.
Journal Article
Is the Middle Class Worse Off Than It Used to Be?
We analyze how median real incomes in the United States have changed since 1980 under a definition of the middle class that adjusts for changes in demographics. We find that failing to adjust for demographic shifts in the population relating to age, race, and education can indicate a more positive outlook than is truly the case. We also find that the real median incomes of today’s middle class are somewhat higher than they used to be, particularly for households headed by two adults. We find, as in prior research, that prices for housing, healthcare, and education have risen more than ...
Journal Article
Advance Layoff Notice Provision and the WARN Act
We find that the incidence of advance layoff notice more than doubled in the years following the passage of the federal Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act. Geographic variation confirms that the act was likely responsible for this increase. We also find that state-level mini-WARN Acts that increased notification coverage had no discernible effect on the incidence of advance notice in these states. But the mini-WARN Act in New York that increased the required length of notice resulted in a commensurate increase in advance notice for affected workers.
Working Paper
Why Do Earnings Fall with Job Displacement?
The earnings of workers are reduced for many years after being displaced from their jobs, and those workers and their families face increased risk of other problems as well. The ills suffered by displaced workers motivated several recent expansions of government programs, including the unemployment insurance system, and have spurred calls for wage insurance that would provide longerrun earnings replacement. However, while the magnitude of the losses is relatively clear, the theory of why displacement matters is scattered and somewhat undeveloped. Much of the policy discussion appears to ...
Working Paper
Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions
This paper describes a dynamic factor model of 19 U.S. labor market indicators, covering the broad categories of unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages, vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers? and businesses? perceptions. The resulting labor market conditions index (LMCI) is a useful tool for gauging the change in labor market conditions. In addition, the model provides a way to organize discussions of the signal value of different labor market indicators in situations when they might be sending diverse signals. The model takes the greatest signal ...
Working Paper
Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects
Since 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from about 66 percent to about 63 percent. The sources of this decline have been widely debated among academics and policymakers, with some arguing that the participation rate is depressed due to weak labor demand while others argue that the decline was inevitable due to structural forces such as the aging of the population. In this paper, we use a variety of approaches to assess reasons for the decline in participation. Although these approaches yield somewhat different estimates of the extent to which the recent decline in ...