Working Paper

Estimating the Trend Unemployment Rate in the Fourth Federal Reserve District

Abstract: We estimate trend unemployment rates for Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia, states that span parts of the Fourth District of the Federal Reserve System. Our estimated unemployment rate trend for the District as a whole stood at 5.7 percent in 2020:Q1 compared to a 4.7 percent observed unemployment rate within the District, implying a tight labor market by historical standards.

Keywords: unemployment rates; trend; Federal Reserve district;

JEL Classification: D21; E24; E32; J6; R1;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Part of Series: Working Papers

Publication Date: 2020-07-01

Number: 20-19