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Journal Article
Texas Manufacturing Survey offers advance look at state and national economies
Business tendency surveys are designed to provide more timely information on economic conditions than otherwise available. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey variables have broad explanatory power for Texas and national economic indicators. TMOS for a given reference month is available up to a month before other Texas data are available. The survey figures appear to measure what they were intended to measure. Moreover, although TMOS was designed for--and is most useful in--understanding the Texas economy, it can also contribute to explaining national developments.
Journal Article
Solving the mystery of the disappearing January blip in state employment data
Frank Berger and Keith Phillips propose a new two-step method of seasonally adjusting state Current Employment Statistics (CES) data produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This method, first proposed in the July/August 1993 issue of Southwest Economy, recently was adopted by the BLS to seasonally adjust the broadest industry groupings of the state employment series. With this new adjustment procedure, the state employment data should be smoother and better reflect trend-cycle movements than if a more traditional seasonal adjustment method were used. ; The article finds that ...
Journal Article
(Mis)reporting Mexico's gross domestic product
Journal Article
Reassessing Texas employment growth
Journal Article
A new barometer for the Texas economy
Journal Article
The Texas industrial production index
The Texas Industrial Production Index (TIPI) measures the output of the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors of the Texas economy. These sectors are of special interest because of their sensitivity to business cycles and because of the size (albeit declining) of the Texas mining sector. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has published TIPI since 1958. Revisions are implemented when new data sources are available, when existing data are revised, or when methodological improvements are devised. The most recent major TIPI revision came in the fall of 1988. ; Berger and Long examine TIPI's ...
Journal Article
Mexican GDP falls but no one notices
Journal Article
Getting a jump on Texas employment revisions