Journal Article

A new quarterly output measure for Texas

Abstract: Real gross domestic product is one of the most watched indicators of the U.S. business cycle. Yet at the state level, output measures are rarely used to track business conditions. Although the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates real gross state product (RGSP), the long release lag (usually about two and one-half years after the reporting year) and the annual periodicity of the data severely limit its usefulness. ; In this article, Frank Berger and Keith Phillips find that movements in quarterly personal income and various price measures can accurately explain movements in total Texas RGSP and in eleven broad industry groupings. Based on these findings, Berger and Phillips create quarterly measures of total and industry-specific Texas RGSP that will be available about four months after the reporting quarter. The new series represents a comprehensive measure of economic activity in the state that can be used along with other timely indicators, such as nonfarm employment and the unemployment rate, to gauge current business conditions.

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Part of Series: Economic and Financial Policy Review

Publication Date: 1995

Issue: Q III

Pages: 16-23