On the Economic Mechanics of Warfare

Vandenbroucke, Guillaume

doi:10.20955/wp.2023.007

Working Paper Revision

On the Economic Mechanics of Warfare

Abstract: The literature on war deals with finances, causes, or consequences. But, how do war-related expenditures affect economically-relevant outcomes at a war’s conclusion (e.g., prevailing side, duration, and casualties)? I present a model of attrition and characterize the effects of GDP at a military conclusion (one side cannot fight anymore) and a political conclusion (one side quits). The estimated model fits the data for the battle of Iwo Jima well. Analyzing data for the current Russo-Ukrainian war through the lenses of the model suggests that additional support to Ukraine could yield a shorter, cheaper war with less destruction on both sides.

Keywords: war; attrition; military spending;

JEL Classification: E6; H56; N4;

https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2023.007