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Discussion Paper
Does Corporate Hedging of Foreign Exchange Risk Affect Real Economic Activity?
Foreign exchange derivatives (FXD) are a key tool for firms to hedge FX risk and are particularly important for exporting or importing firms in emerging markets. This is because FX volatility can be quite high—up to 120 percent per annum for some emerging market currencies during stress episodes—yet the vast majority of international trades, almost 90 percent, are invoiced in U.S. dollars (USD) or euros (EUR). When such hedging instruments are in short supply, what happens to firms’ real economic activities? In this post, based on my related Staff Report, I use hand-collected FXD ...
Working Paper
A Fundamental Connection: Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Expectations
This paper presents new stylized facts about exchange rates and their relationship with macroeconomic fundamentals. We show that macroeconomic surprises explain a large majority of the variation in nominal exchange rate changes at a quarterly frequency. Using a novel present value decomposition of exchange rate changes that is disciplined with survey forecast data, we show that macroeconomic surprises are also a very important driver of the currency risk premium component and explain about half of its variation. These surprises have even greater explanatory power during economic downturns and ...
Discussion Paper
The Perplexing Co-Movement of the Dollar and Oil Prices
Oil prices and the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the euro have often moved together over the past decade or so, but it is not at all clear why they should. The standard interpretation of oil price movements as a response to global oil supply and demand shifts makes it unlikely that the correlation stems from the dollar’s effect on oil prices. In addition, the notorious difficulty in predicting currency moves makes it hard to believe that oil prices dictate the dollar’s value. Improbability aside, however, in this blog post we document the tendency for the value of the dollar to ...
Report
Real Consequences of Shocks to Intermediaries Supplying Corporate Hedging Instruments
I show that shocks to financial intermediaries that supply hedging instruments to corporations have real effects. I exploit a quasi-natural experiment in South Korea in 2010, where regulations required banks to hold enough capital for taking positions in foreign exchange derivatives (FXD). Using the variation in exposure to this regulation across banks, I find that the regulation caused a reduction in the supply of FXD, leading to a significant decline in exports for firms that held derivatives contracts with more exposed banks. These results indicate the crucial role of intermediaries in ...
Working Paper
Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments
The trilemma of international finance explains why interest rates in countries that fix their exchange rates and allow unfettered cross-border capital flows are largely outside the monetary authority’s control. Using historical panel-data since 1870 and using the trilemma mechanism to construct an external instrument for exogenous monetary policy fluctuations, we show that monetary interventions have very different causal impacts, and hence implied inflation-output trade-offs, according to whether: (1) the economy is operating above or below potential; (2) inflation is low, thereby bringing ...