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Journal Article
Gauging aggregate credit market conditions
Lopez, Jose A. (2009)
The Federal Reserve and other central banks have responded to the current financial crisis by taking a range of aggressive policy actions aimed at reviving credit markets. In particular, the Fed has pushed the federal funds rate, its key policy instrument, to historically low levels. Research suggests that overall credit conditions since late 2007 have remained tighter than would have been expected based on historical experience and that this tightness may be partly offsetting the Fed?s policy actions.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Discussion Paper
Survey Measures of Expectations for the Policy Rate
Raskin, Matthew; Moench, Emanuel; Rosa, Carlo; Stowe, Lisa; Boyle, Jeremiah P.; Crump, Richard K. (2014-12-05)
Market prices provide timely information on policy expectations. But as we emphasized in our previous post, they can deviate from investors? expectations of the most likely path because they embed risk premiums and represent probability-weighted averages over different possible paths. In contrast, surveys explicitly ask respondents for their views on the likely path of economic variables. In this post, we highlight two surveys conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that provide information about expectations that can complement market-based measures.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20141205a

Journal Article
How well does the federal funds futures rate predict the future federal funds rate?
Nosal, Ed (2001-10)
Contrary to popular belief, federal funds futures rates do not tell us precisely where the market thinks federal funds rates will be in the future. On average, futures rates overpredict future fed funds rates, and, depending on whether fed funds rates are falling or rising, the futures rate may consistently overestimate or underestimate the future fed funds rates. To obtain a reliable estimate of the future fed funds rate, one must adjust the fed funds futures rate appropriately to account for the bias and past movements of the fed funds rate.
Economic Commentary , Issue Oct

Journal Article
Federal Open Market Committee actions and discount rate changes (October 2, 2001)
anonymous (2001-11)
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Issue Nov

Journal Article
A perspective on monetary policy
Pianalto, Sandra (2005-02)
This Commentary contains an insider?s view of the decisionmaking process followed by the monetary policymakers of the FOMC. In particular, Sandra Pianalto, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and a member of the FOMC, describes her take on the objectives, principles, and economic events that have played a role in the Committee?s decisions since last June, when it made the first of a series of interest rate increases. These remarks were originally made to the Association for Corporate Growth in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on January 18, 2005.
Economic Commentary , Issue Feb

Journal Article
Federal Open Market Committee directive (December 9, 2003)
anonymous (2004-01)
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Issue Win

Report
How "unconventional" are large-scale asset purchases? The impact of monetary policy on asset prices
Rosa, Carlo (2012)
This paper examines the impact of large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) on U.S. asset prices (nominal and inflation-indexed bonds, stocks, and U.S. dollar spot exchange rates) using an event study with intraday data. The surprise component of LSAP announcements is identified from Financial Times articles. Estimation results show that the LSAP news has economically large and highly significant effects on asset prices, even after controlling for the surprise component of the Fed's conventional target rate decision and communication about its future path of policy. This study documents that the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 560

Journal Article
The discount rate and market interest rates: what's the connection?
Thornton, Daniel L. (1982-06)
Review , Volume 64 , Issue Jun , Pages 3-14

Speech
A Diligent Return to Price Stability
Mester, Loretta J. (2022-11-10)
Last week, the FOMC raised its target range of the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. We also indicated that we anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a monetary policy stance that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent. Given the level and persistence of inflation, the journey back to 2 percent inflation will likely take some time. The FOMC is also continuing the process of reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet by allowing assets to roll off, which also helps to firm the stance ...
Speech

Journal Article
FOMC transparency
Poole, William (2005-01)
This article was originally presented as a speech at the Ozark Chapter of the Society of Financial Service Professionals, Springfield, Missouri, October 6, 2004.
Review , Volume 87 , Issue Jan , Pages 1-9

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