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Keywords:Treasury yield curve 

Working Paper
Machine Learning, the Treasury Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting

We use machine learning methods to examine the power of Treasury term spreads and other financial market and macroeconomic variables to forecast US recessions, vis-à-vis probit regression. In particular we propose a novel strategy for conducting cross-validation on classifiers trained with macro/financial panel data of low frequency and compare the results to those obtained from standard k-folds cross-validation. Consistent with the existing literature we find that, in the time series setting, forecast accuracy estimates derived from k-folds are biased optimistically, and cross-validation ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-038

A Look at Fed Tightening Episodes since the 1980s: Part I

An inverted Treasury yield curve—an historically accurate predictor of recessions—has followed two-thirds of the Fed’s tightening episodes since the early 1980s.
On the Economy

Briefing
Mortgage Spreads and the Yield Curve

Mortgage spreads — the 30-year mortgage fixed rate minus the 10-year Treasury rate — have a history of increasing sharply in times of economic stress. While often viewed as a measure of financial stress, I argue they are mostly explained by changes in expected mortgage duration arising from changes in the yield curve. Economic stress leads to a downward-sloping yield curve, which increases expected refinance activity, shortening mortgage durations. This shorter duration makes mortgages prices reflect short (rather than long) Treasury rates. But with a downward-sloping yield curve, this ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 23 , Issue 27

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