Search Results
Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 112.
(refine search)
Working Paper
Non-nested specification tests and the intermediate target for monetary policy
An examination of a procedure for comparing non-nested models to the problem of choosing an intermediate target for monetary policy. Six models of economic activity, based on six different monetary aggregates, are compared.
Journal Article
Taylor-type rules and total factor productivity
This paper examines the impact of a persistent shock to the growth rate of total factor productivity in a New Keynesian model in which the central bank does not observe the shock. The authors then investigate the performance of alternative policy rules in such an incomplete information environment. While some rules perform better than others, the authors demonstrate that inflation is more stable after a persistent productivity shock when monetary policy targets the output growth rate (not the output gap) or the price-level path (not the inflation rate). Both the output growth and price-level ...
Working Paper
Velocity: a multivariate time-series approach
The Federal Reserve announces targets for the monetary aggregates that are implicitly conditioned on an assumption about future velocity for each of the monetary aggregates. In this paper we present explicit models of velocity for constructing rigorous tests to determine whether the behavior of velocity has changed from what was expected when the targets were chosen. We use time-series methods to develop alternative forecasts of velocity. Multivariate time-series models of velocity that include information about past interest rates produce significantly better out-of-sample forecasts than do ...
Working Paper
Controlling inflation after Bretton Woods: an analysis based on policy objectives
This paper reviews the inflation experience in the post-Bretton Woods era in the context of alternative central bankobjectives. It summarizes research on inflation-targeting issues, especially those associated with stabilizing the price level. Generally, inflation-targeting schemes do not provide a nominal anchor unless the central bank is focusing strictly on theinflation target and ignoring unemployment and the business cycle. Research summarized in this article suggests that themost important step a central bank can take to improve policy is to decide on a long-term path for the price ...
Journal Article
The FOMC in 1995: a step closer to inflation targeting?
Journal Article
Trends in home ownership
Journal Article
Commodity futures index trading and spot oil prices
Politicians, market participants, and economists have argued about whether the increased trading induced by the growth of index funds over the past decade is a cause of high commodity prices.
Working Paper
Inflation targeting: why it works and how to make it work better
Inflation targeting has worked so well because it leads policymakers to debate, decide on, and communicate the inflation objective. In practice, this process has led the public to believe that the central bank has a long-term inflation objective. Inflation targeting has been successful, then, because the central bank decides on an objective and announces it, not because of a change in its day-to-day behavior in money markets or the way it reacts to news about unemployment or real GDP. By deciding on an inflation rate and announcing it, the central bank is providing information the public ...
Conference Paper
Introduction