Journal Article

FOMC forecast: is all the information in the central tendency?

Abstract: Federal Reserve policymakers began reporting their economic forecasts to Congress in 1979. These forecasts are important because they indicate what the Federal Open Market Committee members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. The Fed reports both the range (high and low) of the individual policymaker?s forecasts and a truncated central tendency. The central tendency range omits outliers from both the top and the bottom of the full range. The author finds, generally, that the forecasts derived from the full range are at least as good as those derived from the central tendency and, in a few cases, significantly better.

Keywords: Federal Open Market Committee; Forecasting;

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Part of Series: Review

Publication Date: 2003

Volume: 85

Issue: May

Pages: 27-46