Journal Article
State unemployment rate nowcasts
Sen, Elif (2010-10)
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Oct

Journal Article
What does the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey say about local activity?
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Trebing, Michael E. (2008-12)
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Dec

Journal Article
Recession dating and real-time data
Price, Calvin (2008-06)
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Jun

Journal Article
Core inflation as a predictor of total inflation
Mester, Loretta J.; Khettry, N. Neil K. (2006-04)
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Apr

Journal Article
Inflation targeting and revisions to inflation data: a case study with PCE inflation
Price, Calvin (2011-07)
Central banks around the world have come to recognize the importance of maintaining low and stable inflation. One widely employed tool for helping to do so is known as inflation targeting, whereby a central bank sets a numeric goal for inflation. Once this target is publicly stated, the bank can be held accountable for its actions in regard to meeting, or not meeting, this target. Countries that have adopted such a tool have generally had a favorable experience, and there is evidence that inflation targeting is correlated with increased stability in output growth, lower inflation, and more ...
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Jul

Journal Article
Has job quality been \\"job one\\" in the economic recovery?
Sen, Elif; Mester, Loretta J. (2013-08)
The Great Recession of 2007-09 has been followed by a Not-So-Great Recovery. The U.S. economy lost more than 8.7 million jobs, representing 6.3 percent of total U.S. payroll employment, on net, during the Great Recession. But while the recovery from this very deep recession began in June 2009, the first net increase in payrolls did not occur until March 2010, eight months into the recovery.
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Aug

Journal Article
Revisions to nonfarm payroll employment: 1964 to 2011
Stark, Tom (2011-12)
Over recent months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has revised upward its initial estimates of the monthly change in nonfarm payroll employment. Similar positive revisions occurred to the initial estimates for September 2010 through February 2011. Moreover, upward revisions to initial estimates also occurred in the immediate months following the most recent NBER business-cycle trough of June 2009. This pattern of positive revisions suggests that the BLS might be having trouble pinning down initial estimates of job gains in the early stages of an expansion. It also cautions us against ...
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Dec

Journal Article
House price indexes: methodology and revisions
Silverstein, Joseph M. (2014-06)
Accurate measurements of house prices are important for a number of reasons. Housing is usually the most important investment a household ever makes, and home equity is typically the largest component of household wealth. In addition, housing is an important source of collateral for household borrowing, and, as we have seen, its value can be subject to considerable fluctuation. Also, research has shown that having a mortgage that is larger than the value of the underlying house is associated with an elevated risk of default.
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Jun

Journal Article
Real GDP in annual revisions to the U.S. National accounts: 1966-2011
Stark, Tom (2011-08)
On July 29, 2011, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released a flexible annual revision to the U.S. national income and product accounts. Real GDP growth was subject to large downward revisions. I use the Philadelphia Fed's real-time data set to compare the size of the recent revision with that of past annual revisions since 1966.
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Aug

Journal Article
Realistic evaluation of real-time forecasts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters
Stark, Tom (2010-05)
Research Rap Special Report , Issue May