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Journal Article
Real GDP in annual revisions to the U.S. National accounts: 1966-2011
On July 29, 2011, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released a flexible annual revision to the U.S. national income and product accounts. Real GDP growth was subject to large downward revisions. I use the Philadelphia Fed's real-time data set to compare the size of the recent revision with that of past annual revisions since 1966.
Journal Article
The long-run effects of the bankruptcy reform bill
Journal Article
Use of rainy day funds in Third District states
Rainy day fund is the popular name for special reserve funds employed by all but three states (Arkansas, Kansas, and Montana) to provide a more flexible response to emergencies and/or cyclical fiscal extremes. This is the primary policy tool designed specifically to help states address fiscal stresses generated by recessions. By transferring a portion of budget surpluses to their rainy day funds during years of strong economic growth and rising revenues, states can reduce the need to raise taxes and cut services during years of weak growth and declining revenues.
Journal Article
First quarters in the national income and product accounts
Prompted by their expectations of an initial estimate of a marked slowdown in U.S. real gross domestic product growth in the first quarter of 2015, commentators and analysts have drawn attention to an apparent ?first-quarter effect? in the U.S. national income and product accounts
Journal Article
An experimental index for the Business Outlook Survey: some preliminary findings
The Philadelphia Fed?s Business Outlook Survey (BOS) receives considerable attention because it is viewed as both a regional and a national indicator of the anufacturing sector. The value of the survey as an important indicators is due, no doubt, to its unusual longevity (conducted monthly since 1968) and to the fact that manufacturing remains quite sensitive to shifts in overall economic activity. Several studies have shown that the survey?s indexes are useful in quantitatively estimating how the manufacturing sector is doing along a variety of dimension
Journal Article
Inflation targeting and revisions to inflation data: a case study with PCE inflation
Central banks around the world have come to recognize the importance of maintaining low and stable inflation. One widely employed tool for helping to do so is known as inflation targeting, whereby a central bank sets a numeric goal for inflation. Once this target is publicly stated, the bank can be held accountable for its actions in regard to meeting, or not meeting, this target. Countries that have adopted such a tool have generally had a favorable experience, and there is evidence that inflation targeting is correlated with increased stability in output growth, lower inflation, and more ...
Journal Article
State unemployment rate nowcasts
Journal Article
The effectiveness of the state coincident indexes
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has produced state coincident indexes since 2005. These indexes are monthly indicators of economic activity for each of the 50 U.S. states, based on a composite of four widely available data series on state conditions: total nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing, and real wages and salary disbursements.
Journal Article
Are we in a recession? The 'anxious index nowcast' knows!
When the economy is in the midst of a recession, even a severe one, it can be quite difficult at first to tell. For example, as the Great Recession took hold in late 2007 and early 2008, uncertainty lingered as to whether the economy had merely slowed or was already contracting. Unfortunately for policymakers, investors, and consumers ? all of whom might have been able to use such information to make better decisions regarding consumption, investment, and saving ? the recession was not officially called until December 2008. Similarly, the four prior recessions were anywhere from five to nine ...
Journal Article
Unemployment rates in tri-state metropolitan areas
The national unemployment rate is a closely watched monthly economic statistic. It provides a measure of the health of the labor market and is one of many statistical gauges of economic conditions. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates the national unemployment rate as well as unemployment rates for the 50 states and many sub-state areas. This Research Rap Special Report looks at unemployment rates at one of these sub-state levels ? the metropolitan area ? in the three states in the Third Federal Reserve District: Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. Metropolitan area unemployment ...