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Interest rate volatility contributed to higher mortgage rates in 2022
Frame, W. Scott; McCormick, Matthew (2023-04-04)
The Federal Reserve aggressively tightened monetary policy in 2022, responding to high and persistent inflation. The resulting borrowing cost increase for households and firms was generally anticipated. However, fixed-rate mortgage interest rates were especially sensitive to the policy regime change.
Dallas Fed Economics

Improved business outlooks, faster job growth boost Texas outlook
Cañas, Jesus; Morales-Burnett, Diego (2024-03-28)
A majority of Texas Business Outlook Surveys participants expect increasing demand over the next six months, signaling an improving business outlook, even as inflation and wage growth in Texas remain elevated.
Dallas Fed Economics

GDP Gain Realized in Shale Boom’s First 10 Years
Yücel, Mine K.; Plante, Michael D. (2019-08-20)
The U.S. shale boom has benefited the nation’s oil trade balance and oil-producing regions and led to unusually large employment and output gains.
Dallas Fed Economics

Auto Industry on Road to Recovery from Pandemic
Di, Wenhua; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/ (2020-10-13)
After a series of disruptions in March and April that coincided with the widespread outbreak in the U.S., the auto industry has entered a recovery period, though its path forward remains uncertain.
Dallas Fed Economics

Online Retailing, Self-Employment Disrupt Inflation
Duca, John V. (2019-04-16)
The employment status of increasing numbers of workers has become contingent in recent years—that is, there is greater freelance, or “gig,” employment. This development has coincided over the past two decades with an era of increasing online commerce that provides consumers a wider array of products and services at competitive prices.
Dallas Fed Economics

Real Wages Grew During Two Years of COVID-19 After Controlling for Workforce Composition
Howard, Sean; Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph (2022-02-15)
Despite recent negative real wage growth, workers have experienced real wage gains over the two years of the pandemic.
Dallas Fed Economics

Without Immigration, U.S. Economy Will Struggle to Grow
Smith, Chloe N.; Orrenius, Pia M. (2020-04-09)
Slowing labor force growth is the product of a number of factors—the aging of the U.S. population, retiring baby boomers and declining birth rates. But another element is immigration.
Dallas Fed Economics

Texas firms open to AI as tariff work-around strategy
Leigh, Robert; Yousuf, Mariam (2025-07-17)
Firms are adopting AI and automation to offset rising tariff costs and shrinking margins, aiming to boost productivity and reduce labor needs amid economic challenges.
Dallas Fed Economics

Will AI replace your job? Perhaps not in the next decade
Wynne, Mark A.; Derr, Lillian (2025-06-03)
Recent rapid improvements in the capabilities of artificial intelligence have raised concerns about these technologies' impact on employment. The ultimate effects of AI on the workforce will depend on the extent to which AI augments (or complements) rather than automates (or substitutes for) workers' tasks. Will this new technology aid workers or replace them?
Dallas Fed Economics

Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation
Orrenius, Pia M.; Ozor, Grace; Zavodny, Madeline; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2025-07-08)
Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth. Estimates based on historical data and a structural vector autoregression model suggest gross domestic product growth in 2025 is 0.75 to 1 percentage points lower than in a benchmark simulation using the Congressional Budget Office’s immigration projections through November 2024.
Dallas Fed Economics

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