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Without Immigration, U.S. Economy Will Struggle to Grow
Slowing labor force growth is the product of a number of factors—the aging of the U.S. population, retiring baby boomers and declining birth rates. But another element is immigration.
Economics of Love: Rejection Worth Chance at Dream Date
With the advance of social networks and increasing prevalence of online dating, the question of how men and women match up has gained importance in economics and society.
Oil Market’s Tightening in February Seemingly Defies Fundamentals
Surging oil prices in February have raised hopes that the worst may be over for oil markets, though recent evidence suggests that the recovery will not last.
A Natural Approach to Estimating the ‘Natural Rate’ of Unemployment
The unemployment rate is a widely viewed gauge of U.S. labor market slack or tightness. Because of structural changes to the labor market over time, assessments about slack/tightness require a reference point called the “natural rate of unemployment.”
Crude Oil Price Changes Quicker to Register at Gasoline Pump
How big an impact should we expect on gasoline prices? Based on recent research, most of the initial effect showed up quickly at the pump.
Consumers’ and Economists’ Differing Inflation Views Can Complicate Policymaking
Economists and consumers likely think of different concepts when they consider inflation. Economists typically focus on the underlying trend that monetary policy can steer. U.S. consumers appear to think instead about unpredictable changes in prices most relevant to their regular decision-making.
Pandemic Economic Lifeline: Taxes on Consumption, Labor that Fund Stay-at-Home Subsidies
Stay-at-home subsidies funded by taxes on consumption and labor—activities that contribute to viral transmission—can simultaneously reduce deaths and increase output.
Entry, Exit of Firms Amplify the Business Cycle
When new businesses are created, they generate new jobs. When unprofitable businesses close, employees lose their jobs. Given the connection between firm entry and exit and changes in employment, it is natural to ask how this entry and exit affects the broader business cycle.
Real-Time Population Survey Suggests U.S. Job Losses Slowed in Early May
Survey results for the week of May 10 suggest further declines in employment and an increase in unemployment relative to the week of April 26 – May 2, though both changes are within the survey’s margin of error.
Fed’s New Inflation Targeting Policy Seeks to Maintain Well-Anchored Expectations
The Fed’s evolving understanding of the economy and its reassessment of the natural rate of interest have led to arguably the most significant policy change since 2012.