The 2005 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, and Payments: an overview
This PDP summarizes the papers presented at the 2005 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, and Payments at the Cleveland Fed. Papers covered a wide variety of topics in monetary theory and policy, banking, and payments systems research. Topics ranged from optimal monetary policy, optimal bank contracts, the private supply of money, the coexistence of credit, money, and capital, the design of payment systems, and international currencies. Effort was made to calibrate models and bring them closer to the data. These contributions illustrate the progress made in the field of monetary theory.
Does government intervention in the small-firm credit market help economic performance?
The guaranteed lending programs of the Small Business Administration (SBA) are large and growing rapidly. The SBAs fiscal year 2008 performance budget calls for $25 billion in guaranteed loans for small businessesa new record for the agency. Some critics of SBA programs suggest they do not help small businesses or overall economic performance. Other critics suggest that these programs unfairly benefit the financial institutions that participate in SBAs guaranteed lending programs. While very little serious empirical evidence exists on whether the net economic impact of the SBAs guaranteed ...
Fiscal and generational imbalances: new budget measures for new budget priorities
This paper describes the deficiencies of the measures used to calculate the federal budget, make revenue and spending projections, and assess the sustainability of current fiscal policies. The nature of the deficiencies hides the tremendous impact that Social Security and Medicare commitments will have on the budget in the future, given the way the programs are structured currently and the momentous demographic shift underway as the baby boom generation approaches retirement age. This paper proposes two new simple measures that will enable government officials and the public to calculate more ...
Walking on a fence: Brazils public-sector debt
Brazil is walking on a fence between sustainable and unsustainable public-debt dynamics. How it treads could affect not only its own economic prosperity but that of its neighbors, emerging markets in general, and U.S. financial institutions in particular. Relatively small improvements in Brazilian economic conditions and a continuation of that countrys recent fiscal improvements could push Brazil in the right direction, particularly if the dollar continues to depreciate.
Does wage inflation cause price inflation?
Is there any evidence to support the assumption that increased wages cause inflation? This study updates and expands earlier research into this question and finds little support for the view that higher wages cause higher prices. On the contrary, more evidence is found for higher prices leading to wage growth.
Systemic banking crises
Systemic banking crises can have devastating effects on the economies of developing or industrialized countries. This Policy Discussion Paper reviews the factors that weaken banking systems and make them more susceptible to crises.
Identifying and resolving financial crises: a conference overview
Financial crises remain a recurring problem despite, or perhaps, as some suggest, because of, extensive innovation in capital markets over the past several decades. Crisis interventions are fraught with trade-offs: What are the costs of doing nothing? What is the probability that markets will seize up? Are there viable alternatives? Will the intervention make further crises more likely? The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the FDIC sponsored a conference in April 2008 to debate and exchange ideas on these issues. The following document summarizes and ties together the contributions ...
Recent developments in monetary economics: a summary of the 2004 Workshop on Money, Banking, and Payments
We provide a summary and an overview of the papers presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of Clevelands 2004 Workshop on Money, Banking, and Payments, held during the weeks of August 3-7 and August 23-27, 2004.
Who holds the toxic waste? An investigation of CMO holdings
Toxic waste refers to the riskiest derivative structures arising from collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs). We use simulations to predict how this risk would manifest itself in various interest rate environments. We also look for evidence on the total dollar value of these securities, who holds them, and how much they hold. Very limited public information is available, but commercial banks are required to report on their holdings, and we investigate the extent to which the risk is concentrated in that sector.
Measuring labors share of income
Recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data show labors share of income at a historic low. This Policy Discussion Paper explores the BLS calculations with an eye to understanding the factors leading to the recent fall in labors share. While data limitations prohibit replication of the BLS series, alternative measures of labors share of income, based on either the nonfinancial corporate business sector or the macroeconomy more generally, are near their historic averages, quite unlike the BLS series.