Disruptions Are Expected to Persist, Prompting Some Firms to Rethink Supply Chain Management
Despite business leaders’ expectations that supply chain challenges would have subsided by now, supply chains remain disrupted, in some cases to an even greater degree than earlier in the pandemic. The sources of the disruption reportedly vary from firm to firm and product to product, and they also change from week to week, but business contacts and analysts have argued that limited labor supply, port congestion1 and other transportation bottlenecks, and strong demand for goods each play a role.
Fourth District Business Response to COVID-19: Early Findings
The coronavirus outbreak has landed hard on economic activity in the Fourth Federal Reserve District. Businesses in the region, which encompasses Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia, are experiencing many challenges—a sharp pullback in demand, the need to furlough workers and shutter factories, and a cloud of uncertainty hanging over their outlooks for recovery.
Layoffs during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Four Findings from WARN Act Data
With economic conditions changing so rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic, the standard layoff indicators that policymakers and analysts use are falling short. These indicators are either not released frequently enough, or they lack geographic or industry information. Some indicators, such as initial unemployment insurance claims, may be less accurate under the current extreme conditions because of processing delays, duplicate claims, and fraud.2
Strong Demand, Limited Supply, and Rising Prices: The Economics of Pandemic-Era Housing
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland regularly surveys a broad cross-section of businesses in the region it serves and convenes business advisory councils in eight of the region’s major metropolitan areas. The information collected through these surveys and conversations points to trends that are not yet apparent in the data and fills gaps in researchers’ understanding of our region’s economy. The information is helpful to Federal Reserve policymakers during their discussions about the nation’s monetary policy. Anecdotes herein have been edited for length and clarity.
Age-adjusted COVID-19 Mortality Rates by Demographic Groups
A noteworthy aspect of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic is the disproportionate effect of the virus on people of different age groups. The elderly have a higher risk of mortality than working-age adults, and they also face a higher mortality risk than children (CDC, 2020). Figure 1 shows the monthly age-specific crude mortality rates (CMRs) by age group for the United States during 2020 and 2021. One can see that the mortality rates of children (0 to 17 years) and young adults (18 to 29 years) are essentially flat, with 1 death per million children and at most 14 deaths per million young ...
Potential Impacts of the War in Ukraine on the Fourth District
This District Data Brief examines the trade connections between Ukraine and Russia and the Fourth Federal Reserve District, which includes Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. It appears that supplies to the District will be substantially reduced for several items that Ukraine and Russia export, such as primary metals and fertilizer. We should expect prices to rise for these goods, as they have already for petroleum. However, there are generally alternate global suppliers for many of the goods sold by Ukraine and Russia, so Fourth District ...
Does Spending Slide When COVID-19 Surges?
In this District Data Brief, we show that state-level data suggest that economic implications from the latest wave have been less than those from the fall 2020 wave. While there has been some consumer response to the delta-variant-driven COVID-19 surge, it has been weaker than the response to the fall 2020 COVID-19 surge.
Did the COVID-19 Pandemic Cause an Urban Exodus?
One constant through the upheavals of 2020 was the steady stream of media reports about residents’ fleeing dense urban areas. In this data brief, I use the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and find that migration flows were in fact very unfavorable for urban neighborhoods in 2020. However, people’s taking flight from urban areas is only part of the story.
A Speeding Rate Starts to Slow: COVID-19 Mortality Rates by State
The cumulative COVID-19 mortality rate of the United States has doubled or more each week between February 29, 2020 and April 12, 2020. Thankfully, doubling has stopped in several states as of April 12, 2020. One of these states, Louisiana, had the third-highest COVID-19 mortality rate in the country. In the Cleveland Fed’s District,1 the growth in mortality rates has continued to slow in Kentucky, Ohio, and West Virginia, but not in Pennsylvania. However, in most states mortality rates are still rising rapidly—mortality rates doubled or more between April 5, 2020 and April 12, 2020 in 37 ...
How Large Are the American Rescue Plan Fund Distributions to State and Local Governments?
In March of this year, the American Rescue Plan (ARP) authorized the US Department of the Treasury to distribute $350 billion to state and local governments through the legislation’s Coronavirus State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds (SLFRF) to help speed the nation’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, candidates and advocates have stepped forward to say what community challenges they will solve with the funds. When we hear that a county is receiving $500 million and a state is receiving $5 billion, both figures sound very large, but what we don’t know is how much ...