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Changes in Wages and Occupational Mix of Fourth District Metro Areas Between 2019 and 2022
Occupational mixes and wage distributions in the Fourth District’s metro areas mirror both national trends and departures from them that reflect the District’s unique economic makeup. Changes in occupational mix spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic were similar in District metro areas and the nation.
Pennsylvania’s International Trade Relationships
This District Data Brief is part of a four-report series examining the international trade relationships of the US states that are either partially or entirely contained within the Fourth District of the Federal Reserve System: Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.
Urban and Regional Migration Estimates, Third Quarter 2023 Update
This Data Brief updates the figures that appeared in "Urban and Regional Migration Estimates: Will Your City Recover from the Pandemic?" with data for 2023 Q3 for all series. Migration estimates enable us to track which urban neighborhoods and metro areas are returning to their old migration patterns and where the pandemic has permanently shifted migration trends.
How Much Help Do State and Local Governments Need? Updated Estimates of Revenue Losses from Pandemic Mitigation
I estimate that state and local governments have lost $141 billion of revenue from all sources in fiscal year 2020 (FY20) due to the COVID-19 mitigation shutdowns. Under three scenarios of increasing severity, I estimate that state and local governments will need to cut expenditures by between $59 billion and $350 billion in fiscal year 2021 (FY21) to offset impending loses of revenue. Some of the revenue losses can be offset by the rainy day funds that state and local governments have set aside during the expansion, but jurisdictions that lack a fiscal buffer may face painfully deep service ...
Kentucky’s International Trade Relationships
This District Data Brief is part of a four-report series examining the international trade relationships of the US states that are either partially or entirely contained within the Fourth District of the Federal Reserve System: Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.
SORCE Insights: An Initial Look at the Anticipated Impact of Tariffs on Fourth District Businesses
The Cleveland Fed’s Survey of Regional Conditions and Expectations (SORCE) administered in February 2025 asked respondents from across the Fourth District a set of special questions about the potential impact of tariffs on their business. This District Data Brief analyzes their responses.
A Guide to State-Level Estimates of Labor Force Participation Rates
Changes in the US labor force participation rates (LFPRs) have brought attention to state-level estimates. This brief discusses state-level estimates of the LFPR and what they can—and cannot—tell us about recent LFPR trends in our region.
The Demographics of Urban Migrants Since the Pandemic
The postpandemic movement of people out of urban neighborhoods is speeding up changes in the age, credit risk, income, home ownership, and ethnic mix of these neighborhoods. Migration has been consistent with patterns in place before the pandemic, but at higher levels.
SORCE Insights: Employment Conditions and Outlook for Fourth District Firms
The Cleveland Fed’s latest edition of the Survey of Regional Conditions and Expectations (SORCE), administered from October 30 to November 6, 2025, included a set of special questions focused on employment among Fourth District firms. This District Data Brief discusses the top-line results from these questions.
Disruptions Are Expected to Persist, Prompting Some Firms to Rethink Supply Chain Management
Despite business leaders’ expectations that supply chain challenges would have subsided by now, supply chains remain disrupted, in some cases to an even greater degree than earlier in the pandemic. The sources of the disruption reportedly vary from firm to firm and product to product, and they also change from week to week, but business contacts and analysts have argued that limited labor supply, port congestion1 and other transportation bottlenecks, and strong demand for goods each play a role.