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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland  Series:Cleveland Fed District Data Brief 

Migrants from High-Cost, Large Metro Areas during the COVID-19 Pandemic, Their Destinations, and How Many Could Follow

This data brief presents estimates of the number of people who have already migrated from the high-cost, large population centers to lower-cost and less-populated regions during the pandemic. It also presents the potential impacts on lower-cost regions that might receive more remote workers.2 Migration away from high-cost, large metro areas did spike during the pandemic. Even if the percentage of remote workers following these recent migration patterns is small, the number of these workers may be large enough to provide other regions the opportunity to substantially grow their workforces.
Cleveland Fed District Data Brief

Estimates of State and Local Government Revenue Losses from Pandemic Mitigation

This data brief presents estimates of the impacts of the COVID-19 mitigation shutdowns on US state and local income and sales tax revenue. The author estimates that these revenues will decline by $54 billion in fiscal year 2020 (FY20). Depending on the speed of the recovery over the next fiscal year, another $25 billion to $137 billion of revenue may be lost. If states split their rainy day funds between FY20 and fiscal year 2021 (FY21) to offset these revenue declines, the shortfalls would be reduced to $21 billion in FY20 and $4 billion to $78 billion in FY21.
Cleveland Fed District Data Brief

Were Fourth District Local Governments Ready for a Recession? How the Great Recession Influenced How Much They Save

While almost no one anticipated the pandemic-induced shutdown of economic activity experienced this year, local government officials know that the business cycle will sooner or later pull down tax revenues. During years of expansion, cities and counties should be setting aside resources that will enable them to lessen the cuts necessary to balance their budgets during a recession. How prepared were the local governments of the Cleveland Fed’s Fourth District for the COVID-19 crisis?1 Looking at the most recent data available for a sample of the District’s largest cities and counties, we ...
Cleveland Fed District Data Brief

Getting to Accuracy: Measuring COVID-19 by Mortality Rates and Percentage Changes

Comparing the trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States to that of other countries can provide important insights into how the virus is progressing in the United States and the effectiveness of our response. The quality of those insights depends on the data we choose to compare and how we conduct that comparison. This report argues that cumulative mortality rates and their percentage changes are the best available measures for comparing the trajectory of the epidemic in different countries. Based on these measures, the epidemic in the United States has a similar mortality rate ...
Cleveland Fed District Data Brief , Paper 20200408

How Large Are the American Rescue Plan Fund Distributions to State and Local Governments?

In March of this year, the American Rescue Plan (ARP) authorized the US Department of the Treasury to distribute $350 billion to state and local governments through the legislation’s Coronavirus State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds (SLFRF) to help speed the nation’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, candidates and advocates have stepped forward to say what community challenges they will solve with the funds. When we hear that a county is receiving $500 million and a state is receiving $5 billion, both figures sound very large, but what we don’t know is how much ...
Cleveland Fed District Data Brief , Paper 20210930

Does Spending Slide When COVID-19 Surges?

In this District Data Brief, we show that state-level data suggest that economic implications from the latest wave have been less than those from the fall 2020 wave. While there has been some consumer response to the delta-variant-driven COVID-19 surge, it has been weaker than the response to the fall 2020 COVID-19 surge.
Cleveland Fed District Data Brief , Paper 20211007

Layoffs during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Four Findings from WARN Act Data

With economic conditions changing so rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic, the standard layoff indicators that policymakers and analysts use are falling short. These indicators are either not released frequently enough, or they lack geographic or industry information. Some indicators, such as initial unemployment insurance claims, may be less accurate under the current extreme conditions because of processing delays, duplicate claims, and fraud.2
Cleveland Fed District Data Brief

COVID-19 and Supply Chains: A Year of Evolving Disruption

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland regularly surveys a broad cross-section of businesses in the region it serves and convenes business advisory councils in eight of the region’s major metropolitan areas. The information collected through these surveys and conversations points to trends that are not yet apparent in the data and fills gaps in researchers’ understanding of our region’s economy. The information is helpful to Federal Reserve policymakers during their discussions about the nation’s monetary policy. Anecdotes herein have been edited for length and clarity.
Cleveland Fed District Data Brief , Paper 20210226

Fourth District Business Response to COVID-19: Early Findings

The coronavirus outbreak has landed hard on economic activity in the Fourth Federal Reserve District. Businesses in the region, which encompasses Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia, are experiencing many challenges—a sharp pullback in demand, the need to furlough workers and shutter factories, and a cloud of uncertainty hanging over their outlooks for recovery.
Cleveland Fed District Data Brief

How Much Help Do State and Local Governments Need? Updated Estimates of Revenue Losses from Pandemic Mitigation

I estimate that state and local governments have lost $141 billion of revenue from all sources in fiscal year 2020 (FY20) due to the COVID-19 mitigation shutdowns. Under three scenarios of increasing severity, I estimate that state and local governments will need to cut expenditures by between $59 billion and $350 billion in fiscal year 2021 (FY21) to offset impending loses of revenue. Some of the revenue losses can be offset by the rainy day funds that state and local governments have set aside during the expansion, but jurisdictions that lack a fiscal buffer may face painfully deep service ...
Cleveland Fed District Data Brief

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