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Working Paper
Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-level Analysis
Gourio, François; Messer, Todd; Siemer, Michael (2016-01-31)
Using an annual panel of U.S. states over the period 1982-2014, we estimate the response of macroeconomic variables to a shock to the number of new firms (startups). We find that these shocks have significant effects that persist for many years on real gross domestic product, productivity and population. This is consistent with simple models of firm dynamics where a ?missing generation? of firms affects productivity persistently.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2016-1

Working Paper
Measuring productivity growth in Asia: do market imperfections matter?
Neiman, Brent; Fernald, John G. (2003)
Recent research reports contradictory estimates of productivity growth for the newly industrialized economies (NIEs) of Asia. In particular, estimates using real factor prices find relatively rapid TFP growth; estimates using quantities of inputs and output find relatively low TFP growth. The difference is particularly notable for Singapore, where the difference is about 2-1/4 percentage-points per year. We show that about 2/3 of that difference reflects differences in estimated capital payments. We argue that these differences reflect economically interesting imperfections in output and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-03-15

Working Paper
Easy Bootstrap-Like Estimation of Asymptotic Variances
Hu, Luojia; Honore, Bo E. (2018-06-29)
The bootstrap is a convenient tool for calculating standard errors of the parameter estimates of complicated econometric models. Unfortunately, the bootstrap can be very time-consuming. In a recent paper, Honor and Hu (2017), we propose a ?Poor (Wo)man's Bootstrap? based on one-dimensional estimators. In this paper, we propose a modified, simpler method and illustrate its potential for estimating asymptotic variances.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2018-11

Working Paper
The Federal Reserve’s Evolving Monetary Policy Implementation Framework: 1914-1923
Chabot, Benjamin (2017-01-18)
The Federal Reserve has relied upon a number of different monetary policy implementation frameworks throughout its history. This paper describes the original implementation framework that evolved between 1914 and 1923 in response to new policy objectives and changing market conditions.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-1

Working Paper
The Labor Market Impact of Covid-19 on Asian Americans
Zhang, Jing; de Mena, Chris; Qin, Suvy (2023-03-08)
Asian Americans faced a disproportionately larger surge in unemployment rates than other racial and ethnic groups during the Covid-19 pandemic. While existing literature typically examines labor demand channels to explain this, we instead explore a labor supply channel. Our hypothesis is that Asian Americans are more cautious about Covid-19 infections and thus more selective about job opportunities, contributing to their higher unemployment rate than other groups. Analysis of cellphone data during the pandemic indicates that non-work mobility significantly decreased in areas with larger Asian ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-10

Working Paper
Agglomeration in the European Automobile Supplier Industry
McMillen, Daniel P.; Klier, Thomas H. (2013-11-01)
Motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts production plants tend to exhibit a strong degree of agglomeration. This paper estimates a spatial model utilizing detailed plant-level data that is pooled across seven countries in Europe. The paper makes several contributions. First, we assemble a set of nearly 1,800 European plant locations of the largest motor vehicle parts suppliers, as well as the location of all light vehicle assembly plants operational in 2010. Second, we obtain detailed spatial data ? at a higher resolution than what is provided by the NUTS-3 regions ? for five European countries ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2013-15

Working Paper
The role of housing in labor reallocation
Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Davis, Morris A.; Veracierto, Marcelo (2010)
This paper builds a dynamic general equilibrium model of cities and uses it to analyze the role of local housing markets and moving costs in determining the character and extent of labor reallocation in the US economy. Labor reallocation in the model is driven by idiosyncratic city-specific productivity shocks, which we measure using a dataset that we compile using more than 350 U.S. cities for the years 1984 to 2008. Based on this measurement, we find that our model is broadly consistent with the city-level evidence on net and gross population flows, employment, wages and residential ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2010-18

Working Paper
Nonbank Lenders as Global Shock Absorbers: Evidence from US Monetary Policy Spillovers
Meisenzahl, Ralf R.; Peydró, José-Luis; Elliott, David (2023-08)
We show that nonbank lenders act as global shock absorbers from US monetary policy spillovers. We exploit loan-level data from the global syndicated lending market and US monetary policy surprises. When US policy tightens, nonbanks increase dollar credit supply to non-US firms (relative to banks), mitigating the dollar credit reduction. This increase is stronger for riskier firms, proxied by emerging market firms, high-yield firms, or firms in countries with stronger capital inflow restrictions. However, firm-lender matching, zombie lending, fragile-nonbank lending, or periods of low vs ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-29

Working Paper
Tax Revolts and Sovereign Defaults
Arce, Fernando; Werquin, Nicolas; Morgan, Jan (2024-02)
Protests and fiscal crises often coincide, with complex causal dynamics at play. We examine the interaction between tax revolts and sovereign risk using a quantitative structural model calibrated to Argentina during the Macri administration (2015-2019). In the model, the government can be controlled by political parties with different preferences for redistribution. Households may opt to revolt in response to the fiscal policies of the ruler. While revolts entail economic costs, they also increase the likelihood of political turnover. Our model mirrors the data by generating political crises ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2024-07

Working Paper
Bad Jobs and Low Inflation
Melosi, Leonardo; Faccini, Renato (2021-02-09)
The low rate of inflation observed in the U.S. over the entire past decade is hard to reconcile with traditional measures of labor market slack. We show that an alternative notion of slack that encompasses workers' propensity to search on the job explains this missing inflation. We derive this novel concept of slack from a model in which a drop in the on-the-job search rate lowers the intensity of interfirm wage competition to retain or hire workers. The on-the-job search rate can be measured directly from aggregate labor-market flows and is countercyclical. Its recent drop is corroborated by ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-09

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