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What’s New in CARTS 2.1? Updates to Our Index Tracking National Retail Sales
In this Chicago Fed Insights article, we provide an update on the Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS). As readers may remember, CARTS debuted in mid-2021. A summary measure of multiple high-frequency indicators of retail sales (including payment card transactions, foot traffic, gas sales, and consumer sentiment), CARTS grew out of pandemic-era research that aimed to improve the timeliness and reliability of traditional measures of U.S. retail spending.
Charging Ahead: Will the Growth of Electric Vehicles Change the Auto Manufacturing Footprint in North America?
The automotive industry has embarked on a major transition from manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles to producing electric vehicles (EVs). This transition is impacting nearly every aspect of the industry, ranging from vehicle design and development all the way to vehicle fueling and repair. What does the transition to EVs portend for the production footprint of light vehicles (i.e., cars and light trucks) across North America through the end of this decade? In this Chicago Fed Insights article, we summarize our recently published research that addresses this question.
Charging Ahead: What Does Electrification Mean for the Footprint of the Auto Industry?
Given the uncertainties over the pace of the transition from engine-powered to battery-powered vehicles, carmakers have taken steps to make production of their ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles more efficient. Such efforts are designed to help carmakers remain profitable during a period of incurring high costs in developing electric vehicles. One strategy available to carmakers is to cut back on the variety of engine models available across their vehicle model offerings. In simplifying engine options available to consumers, carmakers can reduce the number of engine programs needed to ...
Potential Jobs Impacted by Covid-19
In this blog, we conduct an exercise to determine the potential consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic on near-term labor market outcomes. This is not a forecast, but an attempt to provide some discipline around potential bounds of the number of jobs impacted by the crisis. We estimate that between nine and 26 million jobs are potentially affected,1 with a best guess of around 15 million. If these jobs are lost, the June unemployment rate could reach between 14% and 18%, with a best guess of around 15%.
A Closer Look at the Correlation Between Google Trends and Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Since the onset of the pandemic, there has been growing interest in tracking labor market activity with “big data” sources like Google Trends.1 Just as an example, one can track how the number of Google searches with the term unemployment office has changed over the past week for the Chicago metro area or explore how unemployment became one of the top searched issues across the U.S. during the early months of the pandemic here.
What Can Geolocation Data Tell Us About Childcare Use and Accessibility?
In the U.S., many parents of young children may not have enough childcare providers near them, which may limit not only their childcare access but also their employment opportunities. In this article, we explore how data on people’s visiting patterns to childcare providers might help inform our understanding of the geographic distances between where families live and where providers operate, as well as how these distances and the capacity of providers can affect childcare access. Our research is part of the Chicago Fed’s Spotlight on Childcare and the Labor Market, a targeted effort to ...
What Does the NFCI Tell Us About Future Economic Growth?
The Federal Reserve’s policy tools rely on financial markets to transmit changes in monetary policy to the real economy. For instance, changes in short-term interest rates set by the Fed and faced by financial institutions—e.g., the federal funds rate—affect longer-term rates paid by firms and households. These rate changes in turn impact borrowing and spending decisions. Understanding the current state of financial conditions is, thus, both critical to central bankers and of interest to the wider public.
Initial UI Claims and Google Trends in the Post-Pandemic Era
Initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims are a weekly measure from the U.S. Department of Labor of how many new people have filed for unemployment benefits. A well-known leading indicator and one of the few official statistics released at a weekly frequency, initial UI claims are carefully monitored by economists for signs of turning points in economic activity. That said, they are at best an imperfect measure of turning points for several reasons: The information comes out with a lag, it is sensitive to changing seasonal patterns, and it is subject to revision. Given these challenges, ...
Updated Chicago Fed Estimate of the Trend Labor Force Participation Rate
We updated the Chicago Fed estimate of the long-run trend rate of labor force participation, or trend LFP rate, to use data from 1982 through 2023 and to incorporate information about the age of children in the household. See Aaronson et al. (2014) for more information about the general approach to estimating the trend LFP rate.
Seventh District Midyear Review: Economic Growth Continued to Be Solid in the First Half of 2024
Overall, economic growth was steady during the first half of 2024 in both the nation and the Seventh Federal Reserve District.1 Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed some in both, but employment growth was up, especially in the District. Over the last few years, the District has almost always lagged the nation in both real GDP and employment growth, continuing a decade-long trend. Slower growth and slower inflation often go hand in hand, and recent data indicate inflation has indeed been somewhat lower in the Midwest.