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What Can Revisions to the NFCI Tell Us About Stock Market Volatility?
In this blog post, we document that recent revisions to the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) have been large and clustered in time—a pattern not seen since the 2007–09 global financial crisis. As financial conditions tightened early on during the Covid-19 outbreak here in the U.S., there were large positive revisions to the NFCI through much of March. We show that revisions of this magnitude and in this direction have often preceded substantial increases in stock market volatility. More recently, in late March and April, the large negative revisions to the NFCI ...
Financial Positions of U.S. Public Corporations: Part 4, Tax Relief
This blog post is the fourth in a series that discusses how the current pandemic affects the financial positions of publicly traded U.S. corporations, the potential implications of these financial developments, and the federal policy response. In this post, we discuss the adjustments to federal tax policy that have been initiated to support U.S. businesses and their possible effects. These measures represent a significant fiscal cost ($280 billion over ten years) and an even larger positive cash flow effect for businesses in 2020 (over $700 billion), because some measures are effectively ...
Measuring the Decline in Economic Activity During the Covid-19 Pandemic
On June 8, 2020, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) issued a statement announcing that its Business Cycle Dating Committee determined U.S. economic activity had reached a cyclical peak in February 2020. Beginning in March 2020, a multitude of economic indicators declined sharply as public health orders that required nonessential businesses to close were implemented during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic here in the U.S. The declines then accelerated in April as these orders were expanded to cover nearly the entire country. However, the data for May released so far seem ...
2023 UAW Contract Negotiations with Ford, GM, and Stellantis
The U.S. automotive industry is a large and critical part of the U.S. economy, and nowhere is that more apparent than in the Federal Reserve’s Seventh District, home of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.1 About 60% of the UAW members impacted by this year’s high-profile UAW labor negotiations with Ford, General Motors (GM), and Stellantis work in the Chicago Fed’s District.2 These three companies produce just over half of all their U.S. vehicle output, 40% of all U.S. engine plant output, and 75% of all U.S. transmission plant output in Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan—three of the ...
Seventh District Midyear Review: Economic Growth Continued to Be Solid in the First Half of 2024
Overall, economic growth was steady during the first half of 2024 in both the nation and the Seventh Federal Reserve District.1 Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed some in both, but employment growth was up, especially in the District. Over the last few years, the District has almost always lagged the nation in both real GDP and employment growth, continuing a decade-long trend. Slower growth and slower inflation often go hand in hand, and recent data indicate inflation has indeed been somewhat lower in the Midwest.
Charging Ahead: Will the Growth of Electric Vehicles Change the Auto Manufacturing Footprint in North America?
The automotive industry has embarked on a major transition from manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles to producing electric vehicles (EVs). This transition is impacting nearly every aspect of the industry, ranging from vehicle design and development all the way to vehicle fueling and repair. What does the transition to EVs portend for the production footprint of light vehicles (i.e., cars and light trucks) across North America through the end of this decade? In this Chicago Fed Insights article, we summarize our recently published research that addresses this question.
Female Labor Force Participation in the Post-Pandemic Era
As part of our Spotlight on Childcare and the Labor Market, a targeted effort to understand how access to childcare can affect employment and the economy, this article documents a striking change in the American labor market: The labor force participation rate for women is higher than it was prior to the pandemic. Most strikingly, women with young children at home, those most in need of childcare, have experienced the largest increases in labor force participation. In contrast, the labor force participation rate of men and the overall labor force participation rate are still below their ...
Childcare Facility Financing: Perspectives from Three Decades of Supporting Childcare Centers
As part of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Spotlight on Childcare and the Labor Market, this article focuses on the ways in which the lack of access to childcare is a barrier to employment in the Seventh District. We spoke with Joe Neri, CEO of IFF, a community development financial institution (CDFI) that has served the Midwest childcare sector for more than 30 years.
Childcare Use and Expenses Among Families of Different Income Levels
As part of the Chicago Fed’s Spotlight on Childcare and the Labor Market, a targeted effort to understand how access to childcare can affect employment and the economy, we use data from a national survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau—the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP)—to examine the childcare arrangements for young children (those under five years old) while their mothers were at work, in school, or otherwise not available and how much families paid for these arrangements in the recent past. We focus on the arrangements used and amounts paid by families with low ...
What’s New in CARTS 2.1? Updates to Our Index Tracking National Retail Sales
In this Chicago Fed Insights article, we provide an update on the Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS). As readers may remember, CARTS debuted in mid-2021. A summary measure of multiple high-frequency indicators of retail sales (including payment card transactions, foot traffic, gas sales, and consumer sentiment), CARTS grew out of pandemic-era research that aimed to improve the timeliness and reliability of traditional measures of U.S. retail spending.