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Initial UI Claims and Google Trends in the Post-Pandemic Era
Abstract: Initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims are a weekly measure from the U.S. Department of Labor of how many new people have filed for unemployment benefits. A well-known leading indicator and one of the few official statistics released at a weekly frequency, initial UI claims are carefully monitored by economists for signs of turning points in economic activity. That said, they are at best an imperfect measure of turning points for several reasons: The information comes out with a lag, it is sensitive to changing seasonal patterns, and it is subject to revision. Given these challenges, researchers often turn to auxiliary data sources to help uncover the underlying trend in initial UI claims. One such alternative data source that has been used extensively in recent years for this purpose is internet search data.
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Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Publication Date: 2023-06-01