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Working Paper
Monetary policy and regional house-price appreciation
Cooper, Daniel H.; Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose; Olivei, Giovanni P. (2016-11-30)
This paper examines the link between monetary policy and house-price appreciation by exploiting the fact that monetary policy is set at the national level, but has different effects on state-level activity in the United States. This differential impact of monetary policy provides an exogenous source of variation that can be used to assess the effect of monetary policy on state-level housing prices. Policy accommodation equivalent to 100 basis points on an equilibrium real federal funds rate basis raises housing prices by about 2.5 percent over the next two years. However, the estimated effect ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-18

Working Paper
Bargaining Power and Outside Options in the Interbank Lending Market
Abbassi, Puriya; Bräuning, Falk; Schulze, Niels (2020-06-01)
We study the role of bargaining power and outside options with respect to the pricing of over-the-counter interbank loans using a bilateral Nash bargaining model, and we test the model predictions with detailed transaction-level data from the euro-area interbank market. We find that lender banks with greater bargaining power over their borrowers charge higher interest rates, while the lack of alternative investment opportunities for lenders lowers bilateral interest rates. Moreover, we find that when lenders that are not eligible to earn interest on excess reserves (IOER) lend funds to ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-10

Working Paper
Changes in the Federal Reserve's inflation target: causes and consequences
Ireland, Peter N. (2005)
This paper estimates a New Keynesian model to draw inferences about the behavior of the Federal Reserve?s unobserved inflation target. The results indicate that the target rose from 1- 1/4 percent in 1959 to over 8 percent in the mid-to-late 1970s before falling back below 2-1/2 percent in 2004. The results also provide some support for the hypothesis that over the entire postwar period, Federal Reserve policy has systematically translated short-run price pressures set off by supply-side shocks into more persistent movements in inflation itself, although considerable uncertainty remains about ...
Working Papers , Paper 05-13

Working Paper
Failed bank resolution and the collateral crunch: the advantages of adopting transferable puts
Rosengren, Eric S.; Simons, Katerina (1992)
Current methods of failed bank resolution are unnecessarily expensive for taxpayers and impose substantial costs on borrowers at failed banks. This situation is due to distorted incentives imbedded in the standard contract between the government and acquirers of failed banks, which result in more loan foreclosures than if the loan were held by a well-capitalized bank. This paper proposes a modification to the standard contract in the form of a transferable put, which would introduce market-based incentives to the disposition of failed bank assets.
Working Papers , Paper 92-5

Working Paper
Are \"deep\" parameters stable? the Lucas critique as an empirical hypothesis
Fuhrer, Jeffrey C.; Estrella, Arturo (1999)
For years, the problems associated with the Lucas critique have loomed over empirical macroeconomics. Since the publication of the classic Lucas (1976) critique, researchers have endeavored to specify models that capture the underlying dynamic decision-making behavior of consumers and firms who require forecasts of future events. By uncovering "deep" structural parameters that characterize these fundamental behaviors, and by explicitly modeling expectations, it is argued one can capture the dependence of agents' behavior on the functions describing policy. However, relatively little effort ...
Working Papers , Paper 99-4

Working Paper
Measuring the incentive effects of state tax policies toward capital investment
Plesko, George A.; Tannenwald, Robert (2001)
Empirical research on the effects of differential business taxation across jurisdictions relies on the appropriate measurement of the burden of tax in each location. While numerous summary measures have been proposed and used in various contexts to make such comparisons, most fail to account for the full effects of each state's tax system and the interactions of state tax systems with both local and federal taxes. This paper addresses these issues and employs an approach used in recent state tax reform studies to measure tax burdens. The advantages of this "representative firm" approach ...
Working Papers , Paper 01-04

Working Paper
How does liquidity affect consumer payment choice?
Stavins, Joanna (2019-08-01)
We measure consumers? readiness to face emergency expenses. Based on data from a representative survey of US consumers, we find that financial readiness varies widely across consumers, with lowest-income, least-educated, unemployed, and black consumers most likely to have $0 saved for emergency expenses. For these consumers, even a temporary financial shock, either an unexpected negative income shock (such as a layoff or a short-term government shutdown) or an unexpected expenditure (such as a medical expense or a car repair), could have severe financial consequences. The literature likely ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-7

Working Paper
Potential effects of the Great Recession on the U.S. labor market
Dickens, William T.; Triest, Robert K. (2012)
The effect of the Great Recession on the U.S. labor market will likely persist even after economic output has recovered. Although the recession did not greatly change the relative probabilities of job loss for different types of workers, the long-run impact will vary by worker characteristics. Workers who lost long-term jobs during the Great Recession are at increased risk of future job loss due to the loss of protection afforded by long-term job tenure, and older displaced workers are at a relatively high risk of prolonged spells of unemployment and premature retirement. The recent increase ...
Working Papers , Paper 12-9

Working Paper
Price dispersion and inflation: new facts and theoretical implications
Sheremirov, Viacheslav (2015-07-01)
From a macroeconomic perspective, price rigidity is often perceived to be an important source of price dispersion, with significant implications for the dynamic properties of aggregate variables, welfare calculations, and the design of optimal policy. For instance, in standard New Keynesian models, the key cost of business cycles stems from the price dispersion resulting from firms' inability to adjust prices instantaneously. However, different macroeconomic models make conflicting predictions about the level of price dispersion, as well as about its dynamic properties and sensitivity to ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-10

Working Paper
A concise test of rational consumer search
Sorensen, Bent E.; Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose; Lee, Chloe (2018-06-18)
A simple model of time allocation between work and price-search predicts that consumers spend relatively more time searching for better prices for goods of which they consume relatively more. Using scanner data, we confirm empirically that consumers pay lower (higher) prices for goods that they buy more (less) of than other consumers. Our results are conservative, because we compare goods that are defined as narrowly as possible by UPC codes, and provide a lower bound for the savings obtained from bargain hunting.
Working Papers , Paper 18-4

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