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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Boston  Series:Working Papers 

Working Paper
Family characteristics and macroeconomic factors in U. S. intragenerational family income mobility, 1978–2014

Family economic mobility has been a policy concern for decades, with interest heating up further since the 1990s. Using data that tracks individual families? incomes during overlapping 10-year periods from 1978 through 2014, this paper investigates the relationships of factors ? family characteristics and macro influences ? to intragenerational mobility and whether the importance of those factors has changed over time. Family characteristics include both levels of work behavior and family structure and within-period changes in those factors, as well as time-invariant characteristics of the ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-1

Working Paper
Closed-form estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips curve with time-varying trend inflation

We compare estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) when the curve is specified in two different ways. In the standard difference equation (DE) form, current inflation is a function of past inflation, expected future inflation, and real marginal costs. The alternative closed form (CF) specification explicitly solves the DE form to express inflation as a function of past inflation and a present-discounted value of current and expected future marginal costs. The CF specification places model-consistent constraints on expected future inflation that are not imposed in the DE form. In ...
Working Papers , Paper 09-15

Working Paper
House price growth when kids are teenagers: a path to higher intergenerational achievement?

This paper examines whether rising house prices immediately prior to children entering their college years impacts their intergenerational earnings mobility and/or educational outcomes. Higher house prices provide homeowners, especially liquidity constrained ones, with additional funding to invest in their children's human capital. The results show that a 1 percentage point increase in house prices, when children are 17-years-old, results in roughly 0.8 percent higher annual income for the children of homeowners, and 1.2 percent lower annual income for the children of renters. Additional ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-6

Working Paper
Cyclical wages in a search and bargaining model with large firms

This paper presents a complete general equilibrium model with flexible wages, where the degree to which wages and productivity change when cyclical employment changes is roughly consistent with postwar U.S. data. Firms with market power are assumed to bargain simultaneously with many employees, each of whom finds himself matched with a firm only after a process of search. When employment increases as a result of reductions in market power, the marginal product of labor falls. This fall tempers the bargaining power of workers and thus dampens the increase in their real wages. The procyclical ...
Working Papers , Paper 06-5

Working Paper
Reserve banks, the discount rate recommendation, and FOMC policy.

The boards of directors of the 12 District Reserve Banks are the rare private citizens who play a role in government decisionmaking. Although the nine business, labor, financial~ and community leaders on each local board do not directly set policy, they do recommend changes in the discount rate to the Board of Governors. On the surface their role in monetary policy deliberations is only advisory; however, their influence could, in fact, be substantially more significant if they actually affect the FOMC votes of their respective Reserve Bank presidents. This paper examines this more ...
Working Papers , Paper 96-11

Working Paper
Dynamic Sales Tax Competition: Evidence from Panel Data at the Border

We examine both vertical and horizontal tax competition over time by studying the strategic response of county sales taxation to state sales taxes and to cross-border neighboring municipalities’ combined (state and county) taxes. Using county and state sales tax data from 2003 through 2009, we employ both static and dynamic panel analysis as well as an instrumental variables approach in combination with a border analysis. Our results confirm the presence of tax competition in the cross section, as previous studies have found. Results from the fixed-effects and dynamic panel analysis also ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-5

Working Paper
Input and output inventories

This paper builds and estimates a new model of firm behavior that includes decisions to order, use, and stock input materials in a stage-of-fabrication environment with either gross production or value added technology. The model extends the traditional linear-quadratic model of output (finished goods) inventories by incorporating delivery and usage of input materials plus input inventory investment - features which largely have been ignored in the literature. Stylized facts indicate that input inventories are empirically more important than output inventories, especially in business cycle ...
Working Papers , Paper 97-7

Working Paper
The international transmission of financial shocks: the case of Japan

One of the more dramatic financial events of the late 1980s and early 1990s was the surge in Japanese stock prices that was immediately followed by a very sharp decline of more than 50 percent. While the unprecedented fluctuations in Japanese stock prices were domestic financial shocks, the unique institutional characteristics of the Japanese economy produce a framework that is particularly suited to transmit shocks to other countries through the behavior of the Japanese banking system. ; The large size of Japanese bank lending operations in the United States enables us to use U.S. banking ...
Working Papers , Paper 96-1

Working Paper
Customer recognition and competition

We introduce three types of consumer recognition: identity recognition, asymmetric preference recognition, and symmetric preference recognition. We characterize price equilibria and compare profits, consumer surplus, and total welfare. Asymmetric preference recognition enhances profits compared with identity recognition, but firms have no incentive to exchange information regarding customer-specific preferences (symmetric preference recognition). Consumers would benefit from a policy panning information exchange regarding individual consumer preferences. Our welfare analysis shows that the ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-7

Working Paper
Does the Federal Reserve have an informational advantage? you can bank on it

Even in a world with rational expectations, it has been well established theoretically that if the central bank possesses information superior to that available to the public, there is room for effective and socially beneficial countercyclical monetary policy. This paper tests whether confidential information from bank supervisors could be one source of any such informational advantage. In particular, we examine whether information gained from bank supervision activities could substantially improve the forecasts of macroeconomic variables important for guiding monetary policy. We find that ...
Working Papers , Paper 98-2

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