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Working Paper
Social networks and vaccination decisions
Rao, Neel; Rosenblat, Tanya; Mobius, Markus M. (2007)
We combine information on social networks with medical records and survey data in order to examine how friends affect one's decision to get vaccinated against the flu. The random assignment of undergraduates to residential halls at a large private university allows us to estimate how peer effects influence health beliefs and vaccination choices. Our results indicate that social exposure to medical information raises people's perceptions of the benefits of immunization. The average student's belief about the vaccine's health value increases by $5.00 when an additional 10 percent of her friends ...
Working Papers , Paper 07-12

Working Paper
Investment decisions and negative interest rates
Bracha, Anat (2016-11-01)
While the current European Central Bank deposit rate and 2-year German government bond yields are negative, the U.S. 2-year government bond and deposit rates are positive. Insights from Prospect Theory suggest that this situation may lead to an excess flow of funds into the United States. Yet the environment of negative interest rates is different from the environment considered in Prospect Theory and subsequent literature, since decisions are framed in terms of rates of return rather than absolute amounts and the task involves the allocation of funds rather than a choice or a pricing task as ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-23

Working Paper
Has COVID Changed Consumer Payment Behavior?
Greene, Claire; Merry, Ellen A.; Stavins, Joanna (2021-10-01)
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused large changes in consumer spending, including how people make their payments. We use data from a nationally representative survey of U.S. consumers collected before COVID in 2018 and 2019 and during COVID in 2020 to analyze changes in consumer payment behavior during the pandemic. We find that compared with their payment behavior in 2019, consumers had shifted some of their purchases from in person to online by fall 2020, significantly lowered their use of cash for purchases, and shifted their person-to-person (P2P) payments away from paper (cash and checks). ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-12

Working Paper
The Impact of the Age Distribution on Unemployment: Evidence from US States
Fallick, Bruce; Foote, Christopher L. (2022-10-01)
Economists have studied the potential effects of shifts in the age distribution on the unemployment rate for more than 50 years. Most of this analysis uses a “shift-share” method, which assumes that the demographic structure has no indirect effects on age-specific unemployment rates. This paper uses state-level data to revisit the influence of the age distribution on unemployment in the United States. We examine demographic effects across the entire age distribution rather than just the youth share of the population—the focus of most previous work—and extend the date range of analysis ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-15

Working Paper
Incomplete markets and trade
Willen, Paul S. (2004)
In this paper, we show that incomplete markets lead to trade imbalances. We use a two-period general equilibrium model with countries composed of heterogeneous households. We look at a world where, when markets are complete, countries engage in balanced trade and we show that when some of those markets are absent, trade imbalances emerge. Market incompleteness across countries causes trade imbalances because national income in some countries is more sensitive to risky asset payoffs than in others. Market incompleteness within countries causes trade imbalances because superior risk-sharing in ...
Working Papers , Paper 04-8

Working Paper
Inflation persistence
Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. (2009)
This paper examines the concept of inflation persistence in macroeconomic theory. It begins with a definition of persistence, emphasizing the difference between reduced-form and structural persistence. It then examines a number of empirical measures of reduced-form persistence, considering the possibility that persistence may have changed over time. The paper then examines the theoretical sources of persistence, distinguishing ?intrinsic? from ?inherited? persistence, and deriving a number of analytical results on persistence. It summarizes the implications for persistence from the ...
Working Papers , Paper 09-14

Working Paper
Job creation, job destruction, and the real exchange rate
Schuh, Scott; Klein, Michael W.; Triest, Robert K. (1999)
This paper contributes to an understanding of internationally generated adjustment costs by demonstrating a statistically significant and economically relevant effect of the real exchange rate on job creation and job destruction in U.S. manufacturing industries over the period 1973 to 1993. The responsiveness of these gross job flows to the real exchange rate reflects pervasive heterogeneity with respect to international conditions across firms, even within narrowly defined industries. We document this heterogeneity and show that the responsiveness of job flows to movements in the real ...
Working Papers , Paper 99-11

Working Paper
Input and output inventories
Maccini, Louis J.; Humphreys, Brad R.; Schuh, Scott (1997)
This paper builds and estimates a new model of firm behavior that includes decisions to order, use, and stock input materials in a stage-of-fabrication environment with either gross production or value added technology. The model extends the traditional linear-quadratic model of output (finished goods) inventories by incorporating delivery and usage of input materials plus input inventory investment - features which largely have been ignored in the literature. Stylized facts indicate that input inventories are empirically more important than output inventories, especially in business cycle ...
Working Papers , Paper 97-7

Working Paper
A model of real estate auctions versus negotiated sales
Mayer, Christopher J. (1993)
Real estate auctions have grown substantially in recent years, emergingas an alternative sales method for many institutions interested in sellinglarge amounts of property quickly. This paper develops a framework for comparing auctions to the more traditional negotiated sales. The model showsthat auctions will sell property at a discount because a quick sale results in a poorer "match" between house and buyer, on average, than could be obtained by waiting longer for a buyer. Furthermore, the model predicts that auction discounts should be larger in a down market with high vacancies, and in a ...
Working Papers , Paper 93-3

Working Paper
To What Degree and through Which Channel Do Central Banks Other Than the Federal Reserve Cause Spillovers?
Cotton, Christopher D. (2022-09-01)
Spillovers play a crucial role in driving monetary policy around the world. The literature focuses predominantly on spillovers from the Federal Reserve. Less attention has been paid to spillovers from other central banks. I measure the degree to which 20 central banks cause spillovers. I show that central banks in medium- to high-income countries cause spillovers to medium- to long-term interest rates in similar countries through a bond-pricing channel. These effects are narrower than spillovers from the Federal Reserve, which also affect emerging markets, short-term interest rates, and other ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-3

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