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Working Paper
Domestic bond markets and inflation
Spiegel, Mark M.; Rose, Andrew K. (2015-02-17)
This paper explores the relationship between inflation and the existence of a local, nominal, publicly-traded, long-maturity, domestic-currency bond market. Bond holders are exposed to capital losses through inflation and therefore represent a potential anti-inflationary force; we ask whether their influence is apparent both theoretically and empirically. We develop a simple theoretical model with heterogeneous agents where the issuance of such bonds leads to political pressure on the government to choose a lower inflation rate. We then check this prediction empirically using a panel of data, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2015-5

Working Paper
Trade Risk and Food Security
Adamopoulos, Tasso; Leibovici, Fernando (2024-02)
We study the role of international trade risk for food security, the patterns of production and trade across sectors, and its implications for policy. We document that food import dependence across countries is associated with higher food insecurity, particularly in low-income countries. We provide causal evidence on the role of trade risk for food security by exploiting the exogeneity of the Ukraine-Russia war as a major trade disruption limiting access to imports of critical food products. Using micro-level data from Ethiopia, we empirically show that districts relatively more exposed to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-004

Discussion Paper
What Happens When Regulatory Capital Is Marked to Market?
Vickery, James; Fuster, Andreas (2018-10-11)
Minimum equity capital requirements are a key part of bank regulation. But there is little agreement about the right way to measure regulatory capital. One of the key debates is the extent to which capital ratios should be based on current market values rather than historical ?accrual? values of assets and liabilities. In a new research paper, we investigate the effects of a recent regulatory change that ties regulatory capital directly to the market value of the securities portfolio for some banks.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20181011

Speech
The LIBOR Countdown Has Not Stopped
Held, Michael (2020-09-29)
Remarks at the IMN Virtual Investors' Conference on LIBOR.
Speech

Newsletter
Do You Want an Extended Warranty with That?
Suiter, Mary; Lorson, Eleanor (2021-10-01)
Before buying an extended warranty or a service contract for your home, a car, or an appliance, be sure to read the fine print and weigh the costs and benefits.
Page One Economics Newsletter

Briefing
Are Some Homebuyers Strategically Transferring Climate Risks to Lenders?
Phan, Toan (2022-04)
Recent empirical research suggests that certain homebuyers may be strategically transferring climate risks to banks via the mortgage market, and banks may be transferring such risks to government-sponsored enterprises via securitization. The evidence highlights the nuanced ways in which participants in the financial markets strategically adapt to climate change.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 22 , Issue 14

Report
International Trade, Risk and the Role of Banks
Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim; Niepmann, Friederike (2013-09-01)
Banks play a critical role in international trade by providing trade finance products that reduce the risk of exporting. This paper employs two new data sets to shed light on the magnitude and structure of this business, which, as we show, is highly concentrated in a few large banks. The two principal trade finance instruments, letters of credit and documentary collections, covered about 10 percent of U.S. exports in 2012. They are preferred for larger transactions, which indicates the existence of substantial fixed costs in the provision and use of these instruments. Letters of credit are ...
Staff Reports , Paper 633

Working Paper
The FOMC versus the Staff: Do Policymakers Add Value in Their Tales?
Filippou, Ilias; Mitchell, James; Nguyen, My T. (2023-08-30)
Using close to 40 years of textual data from FOMC transcripts and the Federal Reserve staff's Greenbook/Tealbook, we extend Romer and Romer (2008) to test if the FOMC adds information relative to its staff forecasts not via its own quantitative forecasts but via its words. We use methods from natural language processing to extract from both types of document text-based forecasts that capture attentiveness to and sentiment about the macroeconomy. We test whether these text-based forecasts provide value-added in explaining the distribution of outcomes for GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-20

Journal Article
Risk of Business Insolvency during Coronavirus Crisis
Kwan, Simon H.; Friesenhahn, Sophia M. (2020-10-05)
Many businesses had amassed high levels of debt, or leverage, before the COVID-19 pandemic. Out of precaution or necessity, firms increased their borrowing further after the onset. Although the shock to those firms’ value significantly increased their risk, measured by their distance-to-default, the default risk remains relatively small for most corporate debt. Nevertheless, the amount of outstanding liabilities among firms with elevated risk of insolvency is more than two times higher than at the peak of the global financial crisis.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 30 , Pages 01-05

Working Paper
International Trade Risk and the Role of Banks
Niepmann, Friederike; Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim (2015-11-16)
International trade exposes exporters and importers to substantial risks. To mitigate these risks, firms can buy special trade finance products from banks. This paper explores under which conditions and to what extent firms use these products. We find that letters of credit and documentary collections cover about 10 percent of U.S. exports and are preferred for larger transactions, indicating substantial fixed costs. Letters of credit are employed the most for exports to countries with intermediate contract enforcement. Compared to documentary collections, they are used for riskier ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1151

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