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Can Economists Predict Recessions?

An analysis of 55 years of data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters suggests that quarter-ahead recession forecasts are fairly accurate but still have a great deal of uncertainty.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Small Business Performance in Industries in LMI Neighborhoods After the Great Recession: Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, Houston and Los Angeles

Small businesses are essential to the economic infrastructure of both lower-income and higher-income neighborhoods. In this report, we compare small business performance in lower-income vs higher-income areas. Findings offer some directions for growing small businesses in LMI and ethnic/minority neighborhoods
Profitwise , Issue 3 , Pages 1-20

Working Paper
Bubbly Recessions

We develop a tractable rational bubbles model with financial frictions, downward nominal wage rigidity, and the zero lower bound. The interaction of financial frictions and nominal rigidities leads to a "bubbly pecuniary externality," where competitive speculation in risky bubbly assets can result in excessive investment booms that precede inefficient busts. The collapse of a large bubble can push the economy into a "secular stagnation" equilibrium, where the zero lower bound and the nominal wage rigidity constraint bind, leading to a persistent and inefficient recession. We evaluate a ...
Working Paper , Paper 18-5

Not All Bursting Market Bubbles Have the Same Recessionary Effect

The popped IT bubble ushered in an eight-month recession in 2001. The burst housing bubble resulted in the Great Recession (2007-09). Why the difference?
On the Economy

Journal Article
Does Fiscal Stimulus Work when Recessions Are Caused by Too Much Private Debt?

We argue that fiscal stimulus funded by public debt is effective for increasing economic activity and employment even in recessions that are caused by overborrowing in the private sector. We analyze the impact of government spending on local economies between 2007 and 2009 and find evidence that the fiscal multiplier is higher in geographical areas characterized by higher individual household debt. The higher multiplier in those areas might be attributed to a direct increase in both household consumption and local economic slack.
Economic Commentary , Issue August

Peaks in Housing Construction as a Recession Signal

Two measures of housing construction have tended to peak before U.S. recessions after 1970, but the time from those peaks to a recession’s onset has differed.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Labor Force Exiters around Recessions: Who Are They?

This paper identifies workers who experience a job separation during a recession and tracks their labor force status in the following year using the Current Population Survey. Workers are classified as exiters if they leave the labor force shortly after their job loss and non-exiters if they do not. The pool of exiters is disproportionately female, less-educated, and older. During the pandemic recession, there were even more older workers in the exiters pool, although they were less likely to report being retired compared to in the Great Recession. In addition, statuses were more persistent ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-027

Journal Article
Recession Prediction on the Clock

The jobless unemployment rate is a reliable predictor of recessions, almost always showing a turning point shortly before recessions but not at other times. Its success in predicting recessions is on par with the better-known slope of the yield curve but at a shorter horizon. Hence, it performs better for predicting recessions in the near term. Currently, this data and related series analyzed using the same method are not signaling that a recession is imminent, although that may change in coming months.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 36 , Pages 06

Interview with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard


How Many People Doubled Up after Losing Housing in Aftermath of Past Recessions?

People often move in with family or friends because they have lost housing or seek to economize after recessions.
On the Economy


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