What Is the Probability of a Recession? The Message from Yield Spreads

Abstract: Statistical models using yield spreads can provide estimated odds of a future contraction. How do the odds change when using real vs. nominal interest rates?

Keywords: yield spreads; recessions; real interest rates; nominal interest rates;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Source: On the Economy

Publication Date: 2023-09-07