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Journal Article
Holding Space: Underlying Real Estate Conditions for Nonprofits in the Los Angeles Region
Over the past decade, rising real estate costs have led to displacement of low-income residents and small businesses from Los Angeles’ changing neighborhoods. This trend raises questions about the long-term ability of nonprofit organizations that operate in these neighborhoods to remain in place. The recent economic downturn related to the COVID-19 pandemic makes understanding the baseline conditions that nonprofits face in the real estate market even more critical.Previous research suggests that some San Francisco Bay Area nonprofits, particularly those that rent operating space, have ...
Working Paper
Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis
Lending standards are a direct measure of credit conditions. We use the micro data merged from three separate sources to construct this measure and document that an uncertain macroeconomic outlook, rather than banks' balance sheet positions, was an important reason that a majority of banks tightened bank lending standards during the Great Recession. Our extensive data analysis disciplines how we introduce credit frictions in the banking sector into a macroeconomic model. The model estimation reveals that an exogenous shock to credit supply drives cyclical lending standards and accounts for a ...
Working Paper
Macroeconomic Effects of China's Financial Policies
The Chinese economy has undergone three major phases: the 1978?97 period marked as the SOE-led economy, the 1998?2015 phase as the investment-driven economy, and the new normal economy since 2016. All three economies have been shaped by the government financial policies, defined as a set of credit policy, monetary policy, and regulatory policy. We analyze the macroeconomic effects of these financial policies throughout the three phases and provide the stylized facts to substantiate our analysis. The stylized facts differ qualitatively across different phases or economies. We argue that the ...
Working Paper
Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and Macroeconomy: Evidence from China
We develop a new empirical framework to identify and estimate the effects of monetary stimulus on the real economy. The framework is applied to the Chinese economy when monetary policy in normal times was switched to an extraordinarily expansionary regime to combat the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. We show that this unprecedented monetary stimulus accounted for as high as a 4 percent increase of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate by the end of 2009. Monetary transmission to the real economy was through bank credit allocated disproportionately to financing investment in real ...
COVID-19 Mortgage Relief—The Role of Income Support
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a large number of furloughs, layoffs, reductions in hours worked, and wage cuts. Anticipating that many homeowners would consequently have problems paying their monthly mortgage bill, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development ordered all mortgage servicers of federally backed debt to provide forbearance to any homeowners affected by the crisis. In addition, bank regulators encouraged lenders to forbear and restructure mortgages for borrowers affected by the shutdown, actions that staved off an immediate wave of foreclosures. At the end of the ...
Ability to Repay a Mortgage: Assessing the Relationship Between Default, Debt-to-Income
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has announced that it intends to change the definition of a “qualified mortgage.” Specifically, the CFPB proposes to reconsider the use of a borrower's debt-to-income ratio as a measure of the ability to repay a loan.
Highly Indebted FHA Borrowers at Special Risk as COVID-19 Forbearance Ends
The situation appears most urgent for those borrowers who entered the crisis with a high debt load and little room to financially navigate without forbearance.
The Long Road to Housing Finance Reform: 'Are We There Yet?'
Over the past decade, broad-based legislative reforms for housing finance have proven elusive. However, reflecting lessons from the financial crisis, a political consensus has emerged on how Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should operate.
After the Bust, the Long Road to Housing Finance Reform
The Treasury recently released a plan proposing several administrative and legislative changes aimed at returning Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the private sector after more than a decade of federal control.
Large, Dominant Firms Depress Local Wages; Housing Costs Help Offset Lower Pay
Concern has increased about the ability of very large firms to exert market power and hold down wages in localities where they dominate.