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Working Paper
The cost of fiscal policy uncertainty: industry evidence of its impact on the labor market
The anemic pace of the recovery of the U.S. economy from the Great Recession has frequently been blamed on heightened uncertainty, much of which concerns the nation's fiscal policy. Intuition suggests that increased policy uncertainty likely has different impacts on industries with different exposure to government actions. Such heterogeneity can help identify the effect of shocks due to policy uncertainty. This study uses industry data to explore whether policy uncertainty indeed affects the dynamics of employment during this recovery, and particularly whether it has a differential impact on ...
Briefing
The impact of policy uncertainty on U. S. employment: industry evidence
The anemic pace of the recovery of the U. S. economy from the Great Recession has frequently been blamed on heightened uncertainty, much of which concerns the nation?s fiscal policy. Intuition suggests that increased policy uncertainty likely has different impacts on different industries, to the extent that industries differ in their exposure to government policies. This study utilizes industry data to explore whether policy uncertainty indeed affects the dynamics of employment, and particularly its impact on industry employment, during this recovery. This analysis focuses on heterogeneity ...
Working Paper
Inflation in Disaggregated Small Open Economies
This paper studies inflation in small open economies with production networks. I show that production networks alter the elasticity of the consumer price index (CPI) to changes in sectoral technology, factor prices, and import prices. Sectors can import and export directly but also indirectly through domestic intermediate inputs. Indirect exporting dampens the inflationary pressure from domestic forces, while indirect importing increases the inflation sensitivity to import price changes. Computing these CPI elasticities requires knowledge of the production network structure because these do ...