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Keywords:inflation expectations 

Discussion Paper
What to Make of Market Measures of Inflation Expectations?

Central banks and investors around the world closely monitor developments in financial markets to gauge expectations of future interest rates and inflation. In this post, we argue that two of the most commonly used market-based inflation expectations measures—TIPS breakevens and inflation swaps—are noisy. Although movements in both measures provide policymakers with valuable information, readings should always be interpreted with care.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110815

Speech
Monetary policy strategies for a low-neutral-interest-rate world: remarks at the 80th Plenary Meeting of the Group of Thirty, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City

Remarks at the 80th Plenary Meeting of the Group of Thirty, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 303

Speech
The National and Local Economic Outlook: An Update--Remarks at the University of Bridgeport, Bridgeport, Connecticut.

Remarks at the University of Bridgeport, Bridgeport, Connecticut.
Speech , Paper 200

Speech
Panel remarks at Bank Indonesia–Federal Reserve Bank of New York Joint International Seminar, Bali Indonesia

Remarks at Bank Indonesia?Federal Reserve Bank of New York Joint International Seminar, Bali Indonesia.
Speech , Paper 213

Report
What to expect from the lower bound on interest rates: evidence from derivatives prices

This paper analyzes the effects of the lower bound for interest rates on the distributions of inflation and interest rates. We study a stylized New Keynesian model where the policy instrument is subject to a lower bound to motivate the empirical analysis. Two equilibria emerge: In the “target equilibrium,” policy is unconstrained most or all of the time, whereas in the “liquidity trap equilibrium,” policy is mostly or always constrained. We use options data on future interest rates and inflation to study whether the decrease in the natural real rate of interest leads to forecast ...
Staff Reports , Paper 865

Report
Heterogeneous inflation expectations and learning

Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we estimate a learning model of inflation expectations, allowing for heterogeneous use of both private information and lifetime inflation experience. ?Life-experience inflation? has a significant impact on individual expectations, but only for one-year-ahead inflation. Public information is substantially more relevant for longer-horizon expectations. Even controlling for life-experience inflation and public information, idiosyncratic information explains a nontrivial proportion of the inflation forecasts of agents. We find that ...
Staff Reports , Paper 536

Report
The effect of question wording on reported expectations and perceptions of inflation

Public expectations and perceptions of inflation may affect economic decisions, and have subsequent effects on actual inflation. The Michigan Survey of Consumers uses questions about "prices in general" to measure expected and perceived inflation. Median responses track official measure of inflation, showing some tendency toward overestimation and considerable disagreement between respondents. Possibly, responses reflect how much respondents thought of salient personal experiences with specific prices when being asked about "prices in general." Here, we randomly assigned respondents ...
Staff Reports , Paper 443

Report
Monetary policy frameworks and the effective lower bound on interest rates

This paper applies a standard New Keynesian model to analyze the effects of monetary policy in the presence of a low natural rate of interest and a lower bound on interest rates. Under a standard inflation-targeting approach, inflation expectations will become anchored at a level below the inflation target, which in turn exacerbates the deleterious effects of the lower bound on the economy. Two key themes emerge from our analysis. First, the central bank can mitigate this problem of a downward bias in inflation expectations by following an average-inflation targeting framework that aims for ...
Staff Reports , Paper 877

Discussion Paper
Inflation Expectations in Times of COVID-19

As an important driver of the inflation process, inflation expectations must be monitored closely by policymakers to ensure they remain consistent with long-term monetary policy objectives. In particular, if inflation expectations start drifting away from the central bank’s objective, they could become permanently “un-anchored” in the long run. Because the COVID-19 pandemic is a crisis unlike any other, its impact on short- and medium-term inflation has been challenging to predict. In this post, we summarize the results of our forthcoming paper that makes use of the Survey of Consumer ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200513

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