Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Speech
Monetary policy strategies for a low-neutral-interest-rate world: remarks at the 80th Plenary Meeting of the Group of Thirty, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Williams, John C. (2018-11-30)
Remarks at the 80th Plenary Meeting of the Group of Thirty, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 303

Report
Fitting observed inflation expectations
Del Negro, Marco; Eusepi, Stefano (2010-11-01)
This paper provides evidence on the extent to which inflation expectations generated by a standard Christiano et al. (2005)/Smets and Wouters (2003)?type DSGE model are in line with what is observed in the data. We consider three variants of this model that differ in terms of the behavior of, and the public?s information on, the central banks? inflation target, allegedly a key determinant of inflation expectations. We find that: 1) time-variation in the inflation target is needed to capture the evolution of expectations during the post-Volcker period; 2) the variant where agents have ...
Staff Reports , Paper 476

Working Paper
Inflation Levels and (In)Attention
Bracha, Anat; Tang, Jenny (2022-01-01)
Inflation expectations are key determinants of economic activity and are central to the current policy debate about whether inflation expectations will remain anchored in the face of recent pandemic-related increases in inflation. This paper explores evidence of inattention by constructing two different measures of consumers’ inattention and documents greater inattention when inflation is low. This suggests that there is indeed a risk of an acceleration in the increases in inflation expectations if actual inflation remains high.
Working Papers , Paper 22-4

Working Paper
Practice Makes Perfect: Learning Effects with Household Point and Density Forecasts of Inflation
Mitchell, James; Shiroff, Taylor; Braitsch, Hana (2024-11-13)
This paper shows how both the characteristics and the accuracy of the point and density forecasts from a well-known panel data survey of households' inflationary expectations – the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations – depend on the tenure of survey respondents. Households' point and density forecasts of inflation become significantly more accurate with repeated practice of completing the survey. These learning gains are best identified when tenure-based combination forecasts are constructed. Tenured households on average produce lower point forecasts of inflation, perceive ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-25

Beyond the Mean: Exploring Tail Risks in Inflation Expectations
Kozlowski, Julian (2024-07-02)
An analysis of inflation expectations suggests that financial market participants see a 50% probability that CPI inflation could be higher than 2.5% over the next five years.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations
Coibion, Olivier; Knotek, Edward S.; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy (2021-12-20)
Using a daily survey of U.S. households, we study how the Federal Reserve’s announcement of its new strategy of average inflation targeting affected households’ expectations. Starting with the day of the announcement, there is a very small uptick in the minority of households reporting that they had heard news about monetary policy relative to prior to the announcement, but this effect fades within a few days. Those hearing news about the announcement do not seem to have understood the announcement: they are no more likely to correctly identify the Fed’s new strategy than others, nor ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-26R

Working Paper
Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance
Andrade, Philippe; Gautier, Erwan; Mengus, Eric; Moench, Emanuel (2025-03-01)
We study beliefs about fiscal dominance using a survey of German households. We first design and conduct a randomized controlled trial to identify how fiscal news impacts individuals’ debt-to-GDP and inflation expectations. We document that the link between debt and inflation crucially depends on individuals’ views about the fiscal space. News leading individuals to expect a higher debt-to-GDP ratio makes them more likely to revise their inflation expectations upward. These average effects are driven by individuals who think that fiscal resources are stretched. By contrast, individuals ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-2

Working Paper
Inflation Expectations and the News
Bauer, Michael D. (2014-03-27)
This paper provides new evidence on the importance of inflation expectations for variation in nominal interest rates, based on both market-based and survey-based measures of inflation expectations. Using the information in TIPS breakeven rates and inflation swap rates, I document that movements in inflation compensation are important for explaining variation in long-term nominal interest rates, both unconditionally as well as conditionally on macroeconomic data surprises. Daily changes in inflation compensation and changes in long-term nominal rates generally display a close statistical ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-9

Working Paper
Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Slope of the Phillips Curve
Jorgensen, Peter; Lansing, Kevin J. (2019-11-06)
We estimate a New Keynesian Phillips curve that allows for changes in the degree of anchoring of agents' subjective inflation forecasts. The estimated slope coefficient in U.S. data is stable over the period 1960 to 2019. Out-of-sample forecasts with the model resolve both the "missing disinflation puzzle" during the Great Recession and the "missing inflation puzzle" during the subsequent recovery. Using a simple New Keynesian model, we show that if agents solve a signal extraction problem to disentangle transitory versus permanent shocks to inflation, then an increase in the policy rule ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2019-27

Discussion Paper
What to Make of Market Measures of Inflation Expectations?
Schaumburg, Ernst; Lucca, David O. (2011-08-15)
Central banks and investors around the world closely monitor developments in financial markets to gauge expectations of future interest rates and inflation. In this post, we argue that two of the most commonly used market-based inflation expectations measures—TIPS breakevens and inflation swaps—are noisy. Although movements in both measures provide policymakers with valuable information, readings should always be interpreted with care.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110815

show more (1)

show more (38)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords