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Beyond the Mean: Exploring Tail Risks in Inflation Expectations


Abstract: An analysis of inflation expectations suggests that financial market participants see a 50% probability that CPI inflation could be higher than 2.5% over the next five years.

Keywords: inflation; inflation expectations; Consumer Price Index (CPI); financial markets;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Source: On the Economy

Publication Date: 2024-07-02