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Working Paper
Monetary Policy, Hot Housing Markets and Leverage
Expansionary monetary policy can increase household leverage by stimulating housing liquidity. Low mortgage rates encourage buyers to enter the housing market, raising the speed at which properties can be sold. Because lenders can resell seized foreclosure inventory at lower cost in such a hot housing market, ex-ante they are comfortable financing a larger fraction of the house purchase. Consistent with this mechanism, this study documents empirically that both the housing sales rate and loan-to-value ratios increase after expansionary monetary policy. Calibrating a New Keynesian ...
Working Paper
Is the Light Rail “Tide” Lifting Property Values? Evidence from Hampton Roads, Virginia
In this paper we examine the effect of light rail transit on the residential real estate market in Hampton Roads, Virginia. The Norfolk Tide light rail began operations in August 2011 and has experienced disappointing levels of ridership over its first four years of operations. We estimate the effect of the Tide using a difference-in-differences model and consider several outcome variables for the residential housing market, including sales price, sales-list price spread and the time-on-market. Our identification strategy exploits a proposed rail line in neighboring Virginia Beach, Virginia, ...
Working Paper
The ins and arounds in the U.S. housing market
In the United States, 15 percent of households change residence in a given year. This result is based on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics on gross flows within and between the two segments of the housing market ? renter-occupied properties and owner-occupied properties. The gross flows between these two segments are four times larger than the net flows. From a secular perspective, housing turnover exhibits a hump-shaped pattern between 1970 and 2000, which this paper attributes to changes in the age composition of the U.S. population. At higher frequencies, housing turnover is ...
Journal Article
The Housing Market and Its Influences
The housing market influences our economic and social well-being. It serves as a prime mover of overall economic activity, the foundation for wealth creation, and the basis for the landscape of our neighborhoods as well as the dynamic relationship between cities (particularly older ones) and suburbs. The recent downturn in the housing market generated changes in its aforementioned influences. It also fostered changes in the regulatory environment in the mortgage market. These topics were discussed at the 2014 Reinventing Older Communities conference.
Speech
Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum Fed Week Financial Stability Session
Short-term credit markets have been disrupted in the past two recessions, and significant risks remain. For example, prime money market mutual funds and stablecoins bear attention. Substantial emergency actions were necessary to support lending during the pandemic, and the economy would benefit from being less dependent on ad hoc measures in crises. A properly implemented Countercyclical Capital Buffer, or CCyB, would help avoid some of these issues. Unfortunately, emergency facilities do well supporting large firms but are challenged somewhat to reach small firms. Without better facilities ...
Working Paper
REGIME SHIFT AND THE POST-CRISIS WORLD OF MORTGAGE LOSS SEVERITIES
The average loss rate for conventional mortgages rose from less than 10% pre-crisis to more than 30% during the crisis, reaching and sustaining greater than 40% post-crisis. Using a novel database that contains the components of mortgage losses, we identify a regime shift in loss severities caused by various government interventions and changes in business practices in the servicing industry. This regime shift helps explain the persistently high loss severities post-crisis, even after a strong recovery in the housing market. Our findings have implications for loss modeling, pricing, and, ...