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Working Paper
Model Risk of Risk Models
Valenzuela, Marcela; Danielsson, Jon; James, Kevin; Zer, Ilknur (2014-04-16)
This paper evaluates the model risk of models used for forecasting systemic and market risk. Model risk, which is the potential for different models to provide inconsistent outcomes, is shown to be increasing with and caused by market uncertainty. During calm periods, the underlying risk forecast models produce similar risk readings, hence, model risk is typically negligible. However, the disagreement between the various candidate models increases significantly during market distress, with a no obvious way to identify which method is the best. Finally, we discuss the main problems in risk ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-34

Journal Article
Cash holdings and bank compensation
Mehran, Hamid; Acharya, Viral V.; Sundaram, Rangarajan K. (2016-08)
The experience of the 2007-09 financial crisis has prompted much consideration of the link between the structure of compensation in financial firms and excessive risk taking by their employees. A key concern has been that compensation design rewards managers for pursuing risky strategies but fails to exact penalties for decision making that leads to bank failures, financial system disruption, government bailouts, and taxpayer losses. As a way to better align management's interests with those of other stakeholders such as creditors and taxpayers, the authors propose a cash holding requirement ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Aug , Pages 77-83

Speech
Risk management in monetary policymaking: remarks to the National Association of Corporate Directors, New England Chapter, Boston, Massachusetts, March 5, 2019
Rosengren, Eric S. (2019-03-05)
Eric Rosengren, the Boston Fed president, offered up a ?relatively strong forecast? for the economy in 2019: growth somewhat above 2 percent, inflation close to the Fed?s 2 percent target, and a labor market that continues to tighten. However, ?risks to that outlook have increased recently,? he said, in a talk focused on assessing and managing those risks.
Speech , Paper 141

Speech
Some unpleasant stabilization arithmetic: remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's 62nd Economic Conference, \\"What are the Consequences of Long Spells of Low Interest Rates?\\", Boston, Massachusetts, September 8, 2018
Tootell, Geoffrey M. B.; Rosengren, Eric S.; Peek, Joe (2018-09-08)
These slides represent the combined thoughts of President Rosengren and his co-presenters, Joe Peek and Geoffrey M. B. Tootell.
Speech

Speech
Five Points About Monetary Policy and Financial Stability (06-04-2016) Sveriges Riksbank Conference on Rethinking the Central Bank’s Mandate, Stockholm, Sweden
Mester, Loretta J. (2016-06-04)
Since the 2008 global financial crisis and the Great Recession that followed, economists and policymakers have been evaluating the factors that led to the crisis, assessing what could have been done to prevent, or at least limit, the damage, and considering what can and should be done to reduce the probability and impact of future disruptions to financial stability. That this is a very broad topic can easily be seen by looking at the agendas of this and previous years? conferences organized by the Riksbank. Today I will focus my remarks on the nexus between monetary policy and financial ...
Speech , Paper 72

Discussion Paper
Are Banks Being Roiled by Oil?
Vickery, James; Thomas, Lauren; Velasquez, Ulysses (2016-10-24)
Profits and employment in the oil and natural gas extraction industry have fallen significantly since 2014, reflecting a sustained decline in energy prices. In this post, we look at how these tremors are affecting banks that operate in energy industry?intensive regions of the United States. We find that banks in the ?oil patch? have experienced a significant rise in delinquencies on commercial and industrial loans. So far though, there appears to be limited evidence of spillovers to other types of loans and no evidence of widespread bank losses or failures in these regions.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20161024

Journal Article
GSE guarantees, financial stability, and home equity accumulation
von Hafften, Alexander H.; Passmore, Wayne (2018-24-03)
Before 2008, the government?s ?implicit guarantee? of the securities issued by the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac led to practices by these institutions that threatened financial stability. In 2008, the Federal Housing Finance Agency placed these GSEs into conservatorship. Conservatorship was intended to be temporary but has now reached its tenth year, and policymakers continue to weigh options for reform. In this article, the authors assess both implicit and explicit government guarantees for the GSEs. They argue that adopting a legislatively defined ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 24-3 , Pages 11-27

Discussion Paper
State-of-the-Field Conference on Cyber Risk to Financial Stability
Mosser, Patricia C.; Healey, Jason; Kovner, Anna; Gennaro, Jennifer; Lee, Michael Junho (2021-02-24)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York partnered with Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) for the second annual State-of-the-Field Conference on Cyber Risk to Financial Stability on December 14-15, 2020. Hosted virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the conference took place amidst the unfolding news of a cyberattack against a major cybersecurity vendor and software vendor, underscoring vulnerabilities from cyber risk.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210224

Speech
The Economic Outlook – and Two Risks to the Forecast that are Worth Watching
Rosengren, Eric S. (2020-01-13)
Private forecasters and FOMC participants anticipate a good outcome for the economy in 2020 and beyond, with low inflation and strong labor markets. However, as with any forecast, there are risk scenarios that are not captured in the most likely outcome for the economy. I have highlighted two potential risks that I will be monitoring this year – inflation picking up more than currently expected; and asset prices, particularly real estate prices, showing evidence of more acute financial stability risks. To be fair, there are also downside risks to the economic outlook, as well – primarily ...
Speech

Working Paper
Macroprudential Policy: Results from a Tabletop Exercise
Rosen, Richard J.; Musatov, Alex; Prescott, Edward Simpson; Duffy, Denise; Kovner, Anna; Tallarini, Thomas D.; Yang, Emily; Haubrich, Joseph G.; Zlate, Andrei; Vardoulakis, Alexandros (2019-05-21)
This paper presents a tabletop exercise designed to analyze macroprudential policy. Several senior Federal Reserve officials were presented with a hypothetical economy as of 2020:Q2 in which commercial real estate and nonfinancial debt valuations were very high. After analyzing the economy and discussing the use of monetary and macroprudential policy tools, participants were then presented with a hypothetical negative shock to commercial real estate valuations that occurred in the second half of 2020. Participants then discussed the use of the tools during an incipient downturn. Some of the ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-11

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