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Journal Article
Deferred cash compensation: enhancing stability in the financial services industry
Mehran, Hamid; Tracy, Joseph (2016-08)
Employees in financial firms are compensated for creating value for the firm, but firms themselves also serve a public interest. This tension can lead to issues that could impose a significant risk to the firm and the public. The authors describe three channels through which deferred cash compensation can mitigate such risk: by promoting a conservative approach to risk, by inducing internal monitoring, and by creating a liquidity buffer. Ultimately, the net contribution of deferred cash pay to financial stability is the sum of the effects of the three channels. The authors argue that a ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Aug , Pages 61-75

Working Paper
Asset Manager Commonality and Portfolio Similarity
Ozdagli, Ali; Ryfe, Dylan (2025-04-25)
Asset managers are increasingly influential in financial markets. We use new regulatory as well as manually collected data on asset managers of life insurers, the largest institutional investors of corporate bonds, and find that insurers with the same asset managers have more similar portfolios and trades. This similarity increases further if the asset manager actively oversees the majority of both insurers’ assets. Moreover, the effect intensifies the longer insurers share the same asset manager. Nevertheless, the effect is primarily driven by purchases rather than sales and the resulting ...
Working Papers , Paper 2515

Speech
Risk management in monetary policymaking: remarks to the National Association of Corporate Directors, New England Chapter, Boston, Massachusetts, March 5, 2019
Rosengren, Eric S. (2019-03-05)
Eric Rosengren, the Boston Fed president, offered up a ?relatively strong forecast? for the economy in 2019: growth somewhat above 2 percent, inflation close to the Fed?s 2 percent target, and a labor market that continues to tighten. However, ?risks to that outlook have increased recently,? he said, in a talk focused on assessing and managing those risks.
Speech , Paper 141

Speech
Exploring current economic conditions and the implications for monetary policy: remarks at 1Berkshire Economic Outlook Luncheon, Dalton, Massachusetts, October 26, 2018
Rosengren, Eric S. (2018-10-26)
Topics covered include: recent monetary policy actions; outlook -- continued robust growth; clear risks to the forecast; how should policy respond to strong base forecast but rising risks?; inflation for goods and services; exports are important and uncertain.
Speech , Paper 139

Report
Intermediary leverage cycles and financial stability
Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina (2012)
We present a theory of financial intermediary leverage cycles within a dynamic model of the macroeconomy. Intermediaries face risk-based funding constraints that give rise to procyclical leverage and a procyclical share of intermediated credit. The pricing of risk varies as a function of intermediary leverage, and asset return exposures to intermediary leverage shocks earn a positive risk premium. Relative to an economy with constant leverage, financial intermediaries generate higher consumption growth and lower consumption volatility in normal times, at the cost of endogenous systemic ...
Staff Reports , Paper 567

Speech
The Economic Outlook – and Two Risks to the Forecast that are Worth Watching
Rosengren, Eric S. (2020-01-13)
Private forecasters and FOMC participants anticipate a good outcome for the economy in 2020 and beyond, with low inflation and strong labor markets. However, as with any forecast, there are risk scenarios that are not captured in the most likely outcome for the economy. I have highlighted two potential risks that I will be monitoring this year – inflation picking up more than currently expected; and asset prices, particularly real estate prices, showing evidence of more acute financial stability risks. To be fair, there are also downside risks to the economic outlook, as well – primarily ...
Speech

Speech
Exploring current economic conditions and the implications for monetary policy: remarks at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) 60th Annual Meeting, Boston, Massachusetts, October 1, 2018
Rosengren, Eric S. (2018-10-01)
While inflation remains well contained to date, pushing the economy too hard risks inflationary concerns or financial-stability risks. Either of these outcomes might necessitate a more forceful monetary policy response. While a more forceful policy might be appropriate under such conditions, it is not a risk-free strategy and could put at risk the continued expansion. The history of rapid rate increases in the U.S. suggests that such a risk is real, and as a result my preference for a strategy that allows a continued, but gradual, pace of monetary tightening.
Speech , Paper 138

Discussion Paper
Climate Change and Financial Stability: The Weather Channel
Blickle, Kristian S.; Morgan, Donald P. (2022-04-04)
Climate change could affect banks and the financial systems they anchor through various channels: increasingly extreme weather is one (Financial Stability Board, Basel Committee on Bank Supervision). In our recent staff report, we size up this channel by studying how U.S. banks, large and small, fared against disasters past. We find even the most destructive disasters had insignificant or small effects on bank stability and small and positive effects on bank income. We conjecture that recovery lending after disasters helps stabilize larger banks while smaller, local banks’ knowledge of ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220404

Speech
Five Points About Monetary Policy and Financial Stability (06-04-2016) Sveriges Riksbank Conference on Rethinking the Central Bank’s Mandate, Stockholm, Sweden
Mester, Loretta J. (2016-06-04)
Since the 2008 global financial crisis and the Great Recession that followed, economists and policymakers have been evaluating the factors that led to the crisis, assessing what could have been done to prevent, or at least limit, the damage, and considering what can and should be done to reduce the probability and impact of future disruptions to financial stability. That this is a very broad topic can easily be seen by looking at the agendas of this and previous years? conferences organized by the Riksbank. Today I will focus my remarks on the nexus between monetary policy and financial ...
Speech , Paper 72

Report
Financial vulnerability and monetary policy
Adrian, Tobias; Duarte, Fernando M. (2016-12-01)
We present a microfounded New Keynesian model that features financial vulnerabilities. Financial intermediaries' occasionally binding value-at-risk constraints give rise to variation in the pricing of risk that generates time-varying risk in the conditional mean and volatility of the output gap. The conditional mean and volatility are negatively related: during times of easy financial conditions, growth tends to be high, and risk tends to be low. Monetary policy affects output directly through the investment-savings curve, and indirectly through the pricing of risk that relates to the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 804

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