The Economic Outlook – and Two Risks to the Forecast that are Worth Watching

Abstract: Private forecasters and FOMC participants anticipate a good outcome for the economy in 2020 and beyond, with low inflation and strong labor markets. However, as with any forecast, there are risk scenarios that are not captured in the most likely outcome for the economy. I have highlighted two potential risks that I will be monitoring this year – inflation picking up more than currently expected; and asset prices, particularly real estate prices, showing evidence of more acute financial stability risks. To be fair, there are also downside risks to the economic outlook, as well – primarily centered on the potential for trade disruptions and slowing growth among our trading partners. But I see the potential risks to inflation and financial stability as somewhat more concerning, overall.

Keywords: inflation; economic outlook; reach for yield; financial stability; risks; forecast; inflationary pressures; accommodative monetary policy;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Part of Series: Speech

Publication Date: 2020-01-13