Search Results
Discussion Paper
At the N.Y. Fed: The Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence?
Rouxel-Laxton, Valérie; Rey, Helene; Bertoldi, Moreno; Pesenti, Paolo
(2016-06-03)
On April 18, 2016, the New York Fed hosted a conference on current and future policy directions for the linked economies of Europe and the United States. “The Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence?”—organized jointly with the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the European Commission—brought together U.S. and Europe-based policymakers, regulators, and academics to discuss a series of important issues: Are the economies of the euro area and the United States on a convergent or divergent path? Are financial regulatory reforms making the banking and financial structures ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20160603
Beyond the Mean: Exploring Tail Risks in Inflation Expectations
Kozlowski, Julian
(2024-07-02)
An analysis of inflation expectations suggests that financial market participants see a 50% probability that CPI inflation could be higher than 2.5% over the next five years.
On the Economy
Newsletter
Introducing the Chicago Fed’s New Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index
Brave, Scott A.; Kelly, David L.
(2017)
This article introduces improvements to the adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI). Compared with the previous version, the new ANFCI uses an enhanced estimation procedure with a broader set of macroeconomic adjustment variables and produces a longer time series history.
Chicago Fed Letter
Journal Article
Financial Market Reactions to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Neely, Christopher J.
(2022-10-21)
This article analyzes financial market reactions to the Russia-Ukraine war with a focus on the opening weeks. Markets did not completely anticipate the war, and asset price reactions strengthened from the first week—when there were hopes for a quick resolution—to the second week, when prices generally peaked and began to partially revert to prewar values. Exposure to commodity trade and trade with Russia and Ukraine determined market perceptions of the riskiness of equity and foreign exchange assets. Credit default swap prices on sovereign debt and breakeven inflation rates indicate that ...
Review
, Volume 104
, Issue 4
, Pages 266-296
Speech
Transcript of Lorie Logan on the Macro Musings Podcast
Logan, Lorie
(2022-01-10)
A closer look at monetary policy operations, the Fed’s new Standing Repo Facility, and the future of the Fed’s balance sheet.
Speech
Working Paper
Dissecting the Great Retirement Boom
Birinci, Serdar; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; See, Kurt
(2025-03-21)
Between 2020 and 2023, the fraction of retirees in the working-age population in the U.S. increased above its pre-pandemic trend. Several explanations have been proposed to rationalize this gap, including increases in net worth, the deterioration of the labor market with higher job separations, the expansion of fiscal transfer programs, and higher mortality risk. We develop an incomplete markets, overlapping generations model with a frictional labor market to quantitatively study the interaction of these factors and decompose their contributions to the rise in retirements. We find that new ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-017
Working Paper
Market-Based Estimates of the Natural Real Rate: Evidence from Latin American Bond Markets
Christensen, Jens H. E.; Ceballos, Luis; Romero, Damian
(2023-12-21)
We provide market-based estimates of the natural real rate, that is, the steady-state short-term real interest rate, for Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. Our approach uses a dynamic term structure finance model estimated directly on the prices of individual inflation indexed bonds with adjustments for bond-specific liquidity and real term premia. First, we find that inflation-indexed bond liquidity premia in all three countries are sizable with significant variation. Second, we find large differences in their estimated equilibrium real rates: Brazil’s is large and volatile, Mexico’s is stable ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper 2024-01
Discussion Paper
Leader-Follower Dynamics in Shareholder Activism
Cetemen, Doruk; Cisternas, Gonzalo; Kolb, Aaron; Viswanathan, S
(2023-09-06)
Activist shareholders play a central role in modern corporations, influencing the capital structure, business strategy, and governance of firms. Such “blockholders” range from investors who actively jawbone or break up firms to index funds that are largely passive in that they limit themselves to voting. In between, however, is a key group of blockholders that have historically focused on trading but have embraced activism as an established business strategy in the past few decades. Campaigns involving such “trading” blockholders have become ubiquitous, increasingly targeting ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20230906
Working Paper
Dissecting the Great Retirement Boom
Birinci, Serdar; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; See, Kurt
(2024-07)
Between 2020 and 2023, the fraction of retirees in the working-age population in the U.S. increased above its pre-pandemic trend. Several explanations have been proposed to rationalize this gap, such as the rise in net worth due to higher asset returns, the labor market's deterioration due to higher unemployment risk, the expansion of fiscal support programs, and increased mortality risk. We quantitatively study the interaction of these factors and decompose their relative contribution to the recent rise in retirements using an incomplete markets, overlapping generations model with a ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-017
Working Paper
Gambling for Dollars: Strategic Hedge Fund Manager Investment
Nosal, Ed; Bernhardt, Dan
(2013-11-29)
Hedge fund managers differ in ability and investors want to distinguish good ones from bad. Via the design of their investment strategies, better fund managers want to ease this inference problem while worse fund managers want to complicate it. We impose only the minimal restrictions on the nature the investment strategies that, on average, returns reflect the hedge fund manager?s ability and that returns be bounded from below, and solve for the set of equilibria that emerge. We then show that under a variety of equilibrium refinements, a unique equilibrium obtains. In this equilibrium, ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper WP-2013-23
FILTER BY year
FILTER BY Bank
Federal Reserve Bank of New York 14 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 8 items
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 8 items
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 8 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 3 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 3 items
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 1 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 1 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 1 items
show more (4)
show less
FILTER BY Series
Speech 10 items
Working Paper Series 6 items
FRBSF Economic Letter 5 items
Working Papers 5 items
Liberty Street Economics 4 items
Chicago Fed Letter 3 items
Economic Bulletin 3 items
On the Economy 3 items
Staff Reports 3 items
Review 2 items
Economic Commentary 1 items
Economic Perspectives 1 items
Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1 items
show more (8)
show less
FILTER BY Content Type
Journal Article 12 items
Working Paper 12 items
Speech 10 items
Discussion Paper 4 items
Newsletter 3 items
Report 3 items
show more (1)
show less
FILTER BY Author
Williams, John C. 5 items
Birinci, Serdar 3 items
Cipriani, Marco 3 items
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel 3 items
Guarino, Antonio 3 items
See, Kurt 3 items
Alvarez, Nahiomy 2 items
Bauer, Michael D. 2 items
Christensen, Jens H. E. 2 items
Kwan, Simon H. 2 items
Logan, Lorie 2 items
McPartland, John 2 items
Mertens, Thomas M. 2 items
Neely, Christopher J. 2 items
Nosal, Ed 2 items
Rosengren, Eric S. 2 items
Angrisani, Marco 1 items
Arnaut-Hull, Zoë 1 items
Bennett, Julie 1 items
Bernhardt, Dan 1 items
Bertoldi, Moreno 1 items
Black, Lamont K. 1 items
Bobrov, Anton E. 1 items
Brave, Scott A. 1 items
Bundick, Brent 1 items
Ceballos, Luis 1 items
Cetemen, Doruk 1 items
Chen, Han 1 items
Chien, YiLi 1 items
Cisternas, Gonzalo 1 items
Clouse, James A. 1 items
De Filippis, Roberta 1 items
Doh, Taeyoung 1 items
Eckblad, Marshall 1 items
Evans, Charles L. 1 items
Garga, Vaishali 1 items
Greenwald, Emily 1 items
Groen, Jan J. J. 1 items
Healy, Christopher 1 items
Ihrig, Jane E. 1 items
Jacewitz, Stefan 1 items
Jia, Chengcheng 1 items
Kelly, David L. 1 items
Klee, Elizabeth C. 1 items
Kolb, Aaron 1 items
Kozlowski, Julian 1 items
Lakdawala, Aeimit K. 1 items
Lewis, Rebecca 1 items
Liu, Louis 1 items
Lucca, David O. 1 items
Marsh, W. Blake 1 items
Mattesini, Fabrizio 1 items
Mouabbi, Sarah 1 items
Nattinger, Michael 1 items
Noble, Adam I. 1 items
Oppenheimer, Ana 1 items
Pandolfo, Jordan 1 items
Pesenti, Paolo 1 items
Pflueger, Carolin 1 items
Ranjan, Rajeev 1 items
Rey, Helene 1 items
Romero, Damian 1 items
Rouxel-Laxton, Valérie 1 items
Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam 1 items
Schär, Fabian 1 items
Sengupta, Rajeswari 1 items
Shachar, Or 1 items
Sly, Nicholas 1 items
Smith, Andrew Lee 1 items
Spiegel, Mark M. 1 items
Sunderam, Adi 1 items
Viswanathan, S 1 items
Younger, Josh 1 items
Zhang, Tony 1 items
http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/ 1 items
show more (70)
show less
FILTER BY Jel Classification
G11 5 items
E52 4 items
G1 4 items
G12 4 items
C32 3 items
E24 3 items
E43 3 items
E44 3 items
G23 3 items
J21 3 items
J22 3 items
J26 3 items
C93 2 items
G14 2 items
G15 2 items
G2 2 items
G21 2 items
B22 1 items
C51 1 items
E2 1 items
E4 1 items
E47 1 items
E5 1 items
E58 1 items
E59 1 items
F00 1 items
F30 1 items
F51 1 items
F65 1 items
G01 1 items
G18 1 items
G32 1 items
H56 1 items
H6 1 items
Q02 1 items
show more (30)
show less
FILTER BY Keywords
monetary policy 9 items
COVID-19 4 items
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) 3 items
Treasury market 3 items
covid19 3 items
data 3 items
economic conditions 3 items
interest rates 3 items
labor flows 3 items
labor supply 3 items
retirement 3 items
economy 2 items
experiments 2 items
federal funds rates 2 items
financial forecasts 2 items
financial institutions 2 items
fiscal policy 2 items
frictions 2 items
inflation 2 items
inflation expectations 2 items
inverted yield curve 2 items
over-the-counter 2 items
professional traders 2 items
rstar 2 items
strategic sophistication 2 items
tariffs 2 items
tax cuts 2 items
Asset pricing 1 items
Blockchain 1 items
Bond markets 1 items
Central counterparties (CCPs) 1 items
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 1 items
Depository institutions 1 items
Derivatives 1 items
Euro Area 1 items
FOMC rate policy 1 items
Federal Reserve 1 items
Federal Reserve liabilities 1 items
Financial conditions 1 items
Financial institutions 1 items
Inter-Agency Working Group on Treasury Market Surveillance 1 items
Kansas City Policy Rate Uncertainty index (KCPRU) 1 items
Keynesian models 1 items
MBS market 1 items
Markets Group 1 items
Monetary policy perceptions 1 items
Monetary policy tightening 1 items
New York (State) 1 items
New York City 1 items
New York Fed 1 items
Nikkei index 1 items
Policy Effects 1 items
Russia 1 items
Russian invasion of Ukraine 1 items
SVAR 1 items
Treasury 1 items
Treasury securities 1 items
Ukraine 1 items
United States 1 items
activism 1 items
advanced economies 1 items
affine arbitrage-free models 1 items
affine arbitrage-free term structure model 1 items
bank run 1 items
banks 1 items
blockchain 1 items
bubbles 1 items
central bank 1 items
central banks 1 items
clearinghouses 1 items
consumer credit markets 1 items
coronavirus 1 items
credibility 1 items
credit quality 1 items
data dependent monetary policy stance 1 items
debt limit 1 items
derivatives 1 items
disruptions 1 items
economic activity 1 items
economic forecasting 1 items
emerging markets 1 items
equity markets 1 items
financial conditions 1 items
financial stress indices 1 items
fiscal stimulus 1 items
forecasting 1 items
forecasts 1 items
forward guidance 1 items
funding markets 1 items
global economy 1 items
hedge funds 1 items
herd behavior 1 items
inflation forecasts 1 items
inflation targeting 1 items
information aggregation 1 items
interest on excess reserves (IOER) 1 items
investments 1 items
labor markets 1 items
liquidity 1 items
macroeconomic forecasts 1 items
monetary policy tightening 1 items
money 1 items
money markets 1 items
national debt 1 items
normalization 1 items
overnight and term reverse repurchase agreements (ON and term RRP) 1 items
pandemic 1 items
payment systems 1 items
policy coordination 1 items
policy normalization 1 items
policy rate 1 items
preferred habitat 1 items
rates 1 items
recovery 1 items
repo facility 1 items
reserves 1 items
resilience 1 items
risk management 1 items
secular stagnation 1 items
stock market liquidity 1 items
stock market volatility 1 items
stock-market circuit breakers 1 items
stocks 1 items
taper tantrum 1 items
target range 1 items
technology 1 items
term deposits (TDF) 1 items
to-be-announced market (TBA) 1 items
trading 1 items
transparency 1 items
volatility 1 items
show more (127)
show less