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Speech
Transcript of Lorie Logan on the Macro Musings Podcast
Logan, Lorie (2022-01-10)
A closer look at monetary policy operations, the Fed’s new Standing Repo Facility, and the future of the Fed’s balance sheet.
Speech

Speech
The Economy in the Time of Coronavirus
Williams, John C. (2020-05-21)
Remarks at the Buffalo Niagara Partnership, the Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce, and CenterState CEO (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Journal Article
Decentralized Finance: On Blockchain- and Smart Contract-Based Financial Markets
Schär, Fabian (2021-04-15)
The term decentralized finance (DeFi) refers to an alternative financial infrastructure built on top of the Ethereum blockchain. DeFi uses smart contracts to create protocols that replicate existing financial services in a more open, interoperable, and transparent way. This article highlights opportunities and potential risks of the DeFi ecosystem. I propose a multi-layered framework to analyze the implicit architecture and the various DeFi building blocks, including token standards, decentralized exchanges, decentralized debt markets, blockchain derivatives, and on-chain asset management ...
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 2 , Pages 153-174

Journal Article
Pushing the Limit: Last-Minute Debt Limit Resolutions Have Increased Market Volatility and Uncertainty
Jacewitz, Stefan; Marsh, W. Blake; Sly, Nicholas (2023-02-22)
Since reaching the debt limit in January 2023, the U.S. Treasury has used extraordinary measures to fund the government. However, the Treasury estimates those measures will be exhausted later this year. To gauge possible effects, we review economic and financial market outcomes during previous debt limit episodes. In each case, these episodes led to increased borrowing costs, financial market volatility, and uncertainty, particularly when the resolutions were prolonged.
Economic Bulletin , Issue February 22, 2023 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Financial Market Conditions during Monetary Tightening
Kwan, Simon H.; Liu, Louis (2022-02-06)
The current round of federal funds rate increases is expected to reverse a historically large gap between the real funds rate and the neutral rate at the beginning of the tightening cycle. Financial markets have reacted faster and more strongly than in past monetary tightening cycles, in part because of this large gap and the Federal Reserve’s forward guidance. Historical experiences suggest financial conditions could tighten even more given the size of the gap.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 03 , Pages 6

Speech
A Solution to Every Puzzle
Williams, John C. (2020-09-29)
Remarks at the 2020 U.S. Treasury Market Conference (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Speech
Welcoming Remarks: Thirteenth Annual International Banking Conference
Evans, Charles L. (2010-09-23)
Welcoming remarks delivered by Charles Evans before the Thirteenth Annual International Banking Conference on September 23, 2010, in Chicago, IL.
Speech , Paper 46

Working Paper
Market-Based Estimates of the Natural Real Rate: Evidence from Latin American Bond Markets
Christensen, Jens H. E.; Ceballos, Luis; Romero, Damian (2023-12-21)
We provide market-based estimates of the natural real rate, that is, the steady-state short-term real interest rate, for Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. Our approach uses a dynamic term structure finance model estimated directly on the prices of individual inflation indexed bonds with adjustments for bond-specific liquidity and real term premia. First, we find that inflation-indexed bond liquidity premia in all three countries are sizable with significant variation. Second, we find large differences in their estimated equilibrium real rates: Brazil’s is large and volatile, Mexico’s is stable ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2024-01

Discussion Paper
Herd Behavior in Financial Markets
Cipriani, Marco; Guarino, Antonio (2015-03-09)
Over the last twenty-five years, there has been a lot of interest in herd behavior in financial markets—that is, a trader’s decision to disregard her private information to follow the behavior of the crowd. A large theoretical literature has identified abstract mechanisms through which herding can arise, even in a world where people are fully rational. Until now, however, the empirical work on herding has been completely disconnected from this theoretical analysis; it simply looked for statistical evidence of trade clustering and, when that evidence was present, interpreted the clustering ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150309

Report
Measuring Global Financial Market Stresses
Groen, Jan J. J.; Nattinger, Michael; Noble, Adam I. (2020-09-04)
We propose measures of ﬁnancial market stress for forty-six countries and regions across the world. Our measures indicate that worldwide ﬁnancial market stresses rose signiﬁcantly in March following the widespread economic shutdowns in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, hardly anywhere in the world did these March peaks in ﬁnancial stresses reach those seen during the trough of the 2007-09 Global Financial Crisis. Since March, ﬁnancial market conditions normalized rapidly with ﬁnancial market stresses around average levels. We also show that our ﬁnancial stress measures ...
Staff Reports , Paper 940

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