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Speech
A Solution to Every Puzzle
Remarks at the 2020 U.S. Treasury Market Conference (delivered via videoconference).
Journal Article
Blockchain and Financial Market Innovation
Blockchain technology is likely to be a key source of future financial market innovation. It allows for the creation of immutable records of transactions accessible by all participants in a network. A blockchain database is made up of a number of blocks ?chained? together through a reference in each block to the previous block. Each block records one or more transactions, which are essentially changes in the listed owner of assets. New blocks are added to the existing chain through a consensus mechanism in which members of the blockchain network confirm transactions as valid. The technology ...
Speech
Preparing for the Unknown
Remarks at the 2021 U.S. Treasury Market Conference (delivered via videoconference).
Speech
The Economy in the Time of Coronavirus
Remarks at the Buffalo Niagara Partnership, the Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce, and CenterState CEO (delivered via videoconference).
Discussion Paper
At the N.Y. Fed: The Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence?
On April 18, 2016, the New York Fed hosted a conference on current and future policy directions for the linked economies of Europe and the United States. “The Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence?”—organized jointly with the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the European Commission—brought together U.S. and Europe-based policymakers, regulators, and academics to discuss a series of important issues: Are the economies of the euro area and the United States on a convergent or divergent path? Are financial regulatory reforms making the banking and financial structures ...
Speech
Weighing the risks to the economic outlook: remarks at The Leo J. Meehan School of Business, Stonehill College, Easton, Massachusetts, September 3, 2019
It was an eventful August in the financial markets amid talk of additional tariffs and tax cuts, the falling 10-year Treasury rate, and volatility in stock prices. But the economic data and forecasts indicate a relatively good domestic economy.
Newsletter
Managing Risk in Global Financial Markets: CCP Governance, Supervisory Stress Testing, and Default Management Auctions
The second annual Symposium on OTC Derivatives was held in Shanghai on June 26, 2018. This event was cosponsored by the People?s Bank of China and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and hosted by CCP12 (The Global Association of Central Counterparties). Its three panels focused on central counterparty (CCP) governance, supervisory stress testing, and default management auctions.
Journal Article
Financial Market Reactions to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
This article analyzes financial market reactions to the Russia-Ukraine war with a focus on the opening weeks. Markets did not completely anticipate the war, and asset price reactions strengthened from the first week—when there were hopes for a quick resolution—to the second week, when prices generally peaked and began to partially revert to prewar values. Exposure to commodity trade and trade with Russia and Ukraine determined market perceptions of the riskiness of equity and foreign exchange assets. Credit default swap prices on sovereign debt and breakeven inflation rates indicate that ...
Newsletter
Introducing the Chicago Fed’s New Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index
This article introduces improvements to the adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI). Compared with the previous version, the new ANFCI uses an enhanced estimation procedure with a broader set of macroeconomic adjustment variables and produces a longer time series history.
Journal Article
Pushing the Limit: Last-Minute Debt Limit Resolutions Have Increased Market Volatility and Uncertainty
Since reaching the debt limit in January 2023, the U.S. Treasury has used extraordinary measures to fund the government. However, the Treasury estimates those measures will be exhausted later this year. To gauge possible effects, we review economic and financial market outcomes during previous debt limit episodes. In each case, these episodes led to increased borrowing costs, financial market volatility, and uncertainty, particularly when the resolutions were prolonged.