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Keywords:economic conditions 

Discussion Paper
A Long Road to Economic Recovery for the U.S. Virgin Islands

The U.S. Virgin Islands are a small and unique component of the Second Federal Reserve District. Situated just east of Puerto Rico, the islands of St. Thomas, St. Croix, and St. John are home to roughly 106,000 residents—less than one-thirtieth of Puerto Rico’s population—and make up a territory of the United States. Yet the U.S. Virgin Islands are often ranked as the Caribbean’s top vacation destination on U.S. soil. In this post, we briefly describe the structure of the local economy and look at trends and developments over the years—especially the past few years, during which the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20131115

Discussion Paper
Opening the Toolbox: The Nowcasting Code on GitHub

In April 2016, we unveiled--and began publishing weekly--the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, an estimate of GDP growth using an automated platform for tracking economic conditions in real time. Today we go a step further by publishing the MATLAB code for the nowcasting model, available here on GitHub, a public repository hosting service. We hope that sharing our code will make it easier for people interested in monitoring the macroeconomy to understand the details underlying the nowcast and to replicate our results.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180810

Journal Article
Using the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey to Gauge National and Regional Economic Conditions

We evaluate the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (FRBR) manufacturing survey and assess its contribution to explaining national and regional economic conditions. Specifically, we examine the predictive accuracy of a variety of static and dynamic models. The models include the composite diffusion index reported by the FRBR and other information readily available from the FRBR surveys but not currently employed in the calculation of the composite index. The paper concludes, first, that the diffusion indices currently reported perform reasonably well at explaining both the national and the ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue Q1-Q4 , Pages 81-137

Weighing the risks to the economic outlook: remarks at The Leo J. Meehan School of Business, Stonehill College, Easton, Massachusetts, September 3, 2019

It was an eventful August in the financial markets amid talk of additional tariffs and tax cuts, the falling 10-year Treasury rate, and volatility in stock prices. But the economic data and forecasts indicate a relatively good domestic economy.
Speech , Paper 147

Assessing economic conditions and risks to financial stability: remarks at the Stern School of Business, Salomon Center for the Study of Financial Institutions, New York University, New York, New York, September 20, 2019

The stance of policy is already accommodative. The economic data suggest continued expansion. Risks to the economic outlook are of concern, to be sure. Responding to risks to the economic outlook with too much monetary accommodation entails costs, and thus introduces risks of its own ? one such risk is the potential buildup of financial instability.
Speech , Paper 149

Exploring Economic Conditions and the Implications for Monetary Policy

I would note that after two recent rate easings of 25 basis points each, monetary policy is already accommodative. Sustaining growth at potential depends on the U.S. consumer continuing to offset the weakness we are seeing in exports and business fixed investment. To me, it seems appropriate to continue to closely monitor incoming data to determine if the forecast of growth around potential is likely to be achieved, or if the risks I have outlined are indeed materializing.While the risks to the global and U.S. economies remain, there are also risks to easing too aggressively, as I’ve ...

Exploring Economic Conditions and the Implications for Monetary Policy

Eric Rosengren’s comments were delivered at the Boston Fed’s Annual Regional & Community Bankers Conference, and were a based on a speech he delivered on October 11, 2019.

Financial Stability and Regulatory Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment

I would suggest that the potential costs of the excessive leverage that arise in a low interest rate environment deserve more research and, I suspect, more focused and proactive policy actions.

A Different Kind of Recession

Remarks at the Institute of International Finance: Central Banking in the Age of COVID-19 Summit (delivered via videoconference).


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