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Discussion Paper
Tracking the U.S. Banking Industry
Vickery, James; Avraham, Dafna; Sullivan, Tara (2012-10-10)
The New York Fed has recently published the first edition of a new quarterly report tracking the aggregate financial condition of consolidated U.S. banking organizations. In this post, we describe the methodology used to construct the statistics in the report as well as present and briefly discuss some of the findings.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20121010

Working Paper
A Macroeconomic Model of Central Bank Digital Currency
Paul, Pascal; Ulate, Mauricio; Wu, Jing Cynthia (2024-04-08)
We develop a quantitative New Keynesian DSGE model to study the introduction of a central bank digital currency (CBDC): government-backed digital money available to retail consumers. At the heart of our model are monopolistic banks with market power in deposit and loan markets. When a CBDC is introduced, households benefit from an expansion of liquidity services and higher deposit rates as bank deposit market power is curtailed. However, deposits also flow out of the banking system and bank lending contracts. We assess this welfare trade-off for a wide range of economies that differ in their ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2024-11

Discussion Paper
Are BHC and Federal Reserve Stress Test Results Converging? What Do We Learn from 2015?
Kovner, Anna; Hirtle, Beverly; McKay, Eric (2015-04-06)
In March, the Federal Reserve and thirty-one large U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs) announced results of the latest Dodd-Frank Act-mandated stress tests. Some commentators have argued that BHCs, in designing their stress test models, have strong incentives to mimic the Fed’s stress test results, since the Fed’s results are an integral part of the Federal Reserve’s supervisory assessment of capital adequacy for these firms. In this post, we look at the 2015 stress test projections by the eighteen largest U.S. BHCs and by the Fed and compare them to similar numbers from 2013 and 2014. ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150406

Discussion Paper
Leverage Ratio Arbitrage All Over Again
Morgan, Donald P.; Choi, Dong Beom; Holcomb, Michael R. (2020-06-30)
Leverage limits as a form of capital regulation have a well-known, potential bug: If banks can’t lever returns as desired, they can boost returns on equity by shifting toward riskier, higher yielding assets. That reach for yield is the leverage rule “arbitrage.” But would banks do that? In a previous post, we discussed evidence from our working paper that banks did do just that in response to the new leverage rule that took effect in 2018. This post discusses new findings in our revised paper on when and how banks arbitraged.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200630

Working Paper
Agency Conflicts in Residential Mortgage Securitization: What Does the Empirical Literature Tell Us?
Frame, W. Scott (2017-03-01)
The agency conflicts inherent in securitization are viewed by many as having been a key contributor to the recent financial crisis, despite the presence of various legal and economic constructs to mitigate them. A review of recent empirical research for the U.S. home mortgage market suggests that securitization itself may not have been a problem, but rather the origination and distribution of observably riskier loans. Low-documentation mortgages, for which asymmetric information problems are acute, performed especially poorly during the crisis. Securitized low-documentation mortgages ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2017-1

Working Paper
Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
Greenwald, Emily; Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Younger, Josh (2023-10-10)
In principle, bank deposits can be withdrawn on demand. In practice, depositors tend to maintain stable balances for long periods, allowing banks to fund long-dated assets. Nevertheless, the cost of deposit funding influences banks’ capacity for maturity transformation. Banks and researchers conventionally model the response of deposit interest rates to market interest rates as constant, implying that deposits have nearly constant duration. Contrary to this standard assumption, we show empirically that the “beta” of deposit rates to market rates increases as market rates rise, causing ...
Working Papers , Paper 2315

Discussion Paper
With Abundant Reserves, Do Banks Adjust Reserve Balances to Accommodate Payment Flows?
Kraft, Kailey; Huang, Catherine; Copeland, Adam (2022-10-12)
As a result of the global financial crisis (GFC), the Federal Reserve switched from a regime of scarce reserves to one of abundant reserves. In this post, we explore how banks’ day-to-day management of reserve balances with respect to payment flows changed with this regime switch. We find that bank behavior did not change on average; under both regimes, banks increased their opening balances when they expected higher outgoing payments and, similarly, decreased these balances with expected higher incoming payments. There are substantial differences across banks, however. At the introduction ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20221012

Report
Liquidity Regulations, Bank Lending, and Fire-Sale Risk
Sarkar, Asani; Roberts, Daniel; Shachar, Or (2018-06-01)
We examine whether U.S. banks subject to the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) reduce lending (an unintended consequence) and/or become more resilient to liquidity shocks, as intended by regulators. We find that LCR banks tighten lending standards, and reduce liquidity creation that occurs mainly through lower lending relative to non-LCR banks. However, covered banks also contribute less to fire-sale externalities relative to exempt banks. For LCR banks, we estimate that the total after-tax benefits of reduced fire-sale risk (net of the costs associated with foregone lending) exceed $50 billion ...
Staff Reports , Paper 852

Working Paper
Social Capital and Mortgages
An, Xudong; El Ghoul, Sadok; Guedhami, Omrane; Levine, Ross; Roman, Raluca (2023-10-12)
Using comprehensive mortgage-level data, we discover that the social capital of the community in which households live positively influences the likelihood of the approval of their mortgage applications, the terms of approved mortgages, and the subsequent performance of those mortgages. The results hold when conditioning on extensive household and community characteristics and a battery of fixed effects, including individual effects, data permitting, and when employing instrumental variables and propensity score matching to address identification and selection concerns. Concerning causal ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-23

Recent Trends in Banks’ Commercial Real Estate Exposure
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Hogan, Marie; Jordan-Wood, Samuel (2024-07-11)
U.S. bank holding companies that have the largest exposure to commercial real estate share some common characteristics. Our blog post explains.
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