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Keywords:asset prices OR Asset prices OR Asset Prices 

Working Paper
Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Theoretical Mechanisms

This paper reviews the theoretical literature at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance to draw lessons on the connection between vulnerabilities in the financial system and the macroeconomy, and on how monetary policy affects that connection. This literature finds that financial vulnerabilities are inherent to financial systems and tend to be procyclical. Moreover, financial vulnerabilities amplify the effects of adverse shocks to the economy, so that even a small shock to fundamentals or a small revision of beliefs can create a self-reinforcing feedback loop that impairs credit ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-005

Report
Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy

We quantify the role of global production linkages in explaining spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks to stock returns of fifty-four sectors in twenty-six countries. We first present a conceptual framework based on a standard open-economy production network model that delivers a spillover pattern consistent with a spatial autoregression (SAR) process. We then use the SAR model to decompose the overall impact of U.S. monetary policy on stock returns into a direct and a network effect. We find that up to 80 percent of the total impact of U.S. monetary policy shocks on average ...
Staff Reports , Paper 945

Report
Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges

This paper reviews literature on the empirical relationship between vulnerabilities in the financial system and the macroeconomy, and how monetary policy affects that connection. Financial vulnerabilities build up over time, with both risk appetite and risk taking rising during economic expansions. To some extent, financial crises are predictable and have severe real economic consequences when they occur. Empirically it is difficult to link monetary policy to financial vulnerabilities, in part because financial cycles have long durations, making it difficult to separate effects of changes in ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1003

Journal Article
Asset Bubbles: Detecting and Measuring Them Are Not Easy Tasks

Market bubbles are linked to many historic financial crises, but asset price run-ups can reflect both fundamental value changes and psychological contagion. Using historic values of commonly held assets (stocks and real estate), a novel ?exuberance index? offers a way to compare bubbles.
The Regional Economist , Issue July

Working Paper
Wealth Inequality and Return Heterogeneity During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Wealth inequality in the U.S., measured by the top 1% wealth share, experienced dramatic changes in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic theory suggests that the key to understanding wealth inequality is heterogeneity in the return to net worth across households. To understand the dynamics of wealth inequality during the COVID-19 pandemic, we develop a novel methodology that allows us to estimate the returns to net worth for different groups of households at relatively high frequency. We show that portfolio heterogeneity and asset price movements are the main determinants of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2114

Working Paper
Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges

This paper reviews literature on the empirical relationship between vulnerabilities in the financial system and the macroeconomy, and how monetary policy affects that connection. Financial vulnerabilities build up over time, with both risk appetite and risk taking rising during economic expansions. To some extent, financial crises are predictable and have severe real economic consequences when they occur. Empirically it is difficult to link monetary policy to financial vulnerabilities, in part because financial cycles have long durations, making it difficult to separate effects of changes in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-006

Report
Intergenerational Redistribution in the Great Recession

We construct a stochastic overlapping-generations general equilibrium model in which households are subject to aggregate shocks that affect both wages and asset prices. We use a calibrated version of the model to quantify how the welfare costs of big recessions are distributed across different household age groups. The model predicts that younger cohorts fare better than older cohorts when the equilibrium decline in asset prices is large relative to the decline in wages. Asset price declines hurt the old, who rely on asset sales to finance consumption, but benefit the young, who purchase ...
Staff Report , Paper 498

Discussion Paper
The International Spillover of U.S. Monetary Policy via Global Production Linkages

The recent era of globalization has witnessed growing cross-country trade integration as firms’ production chains have spread across the world, and with stock market returns becoming more correlated across countries. While research has predominantly focused on how financial integration impacts the propagation of shocks across international financial markets, trade also influences these cross-border spillovers. In particular, one important aspect, highlighted by the recent work of di Giovanni and Hale (2020), is how the global production network influences the transmission of U.S. monetary ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210106

Report
The Bitcoin–Macro Disconnect

This paper investigates the link between Bitcoin and macroeconomic fundamentals by estimating the impact of macroeconomic news on Bitcoin using an event study with intraday data. The key result is that, unlike other U.S. asset classes, Bitcoin is orthogonal to monetary and macroeconomic news. This disconnect is puzzling as unexpected changes in discount rates should, in principle, affect the price of Bitcoin even when interpreting Bitcoin as a purely speculative asset.
Staff Reports , Paper 1052

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