Report

The Bitcoin–Macro Disconnect


Abstract: This paper investigates the link between Bitcoin and macroeconomic fundamentals by estimating the impact of macroeconomic news on Bitcoin using an event study with intraday data. The key result is that, unlike other U.S. asset classes, Bitcoin is orthogonal to monetary and macroeconomic news. This disconnect is puzzling as unexpected changes in discount rates should, in principle, affect the price of Bitcoin even when interpreting Bitcoin as a purely speculative asset.

Keywords: Bitcoin; asset prices; United States; high-frequency data; monetary surprises; macroeconomic announcements;

JEL Classification: F3; F4; G1;

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Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Part of Series: Staff Reports

Publication Date: 2023-02-01

Number: 1052