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Working Paper
Drought and Cattle: Implications for Ranchers

Drought has occurred with greater intensity and frequency in many areas of the United States in recent years. Despite the growing concern surrounding the impacts of drought on the agricultural sector, few studies have quantified the impact of drought on the cattle industry. In this paper, we estimate the impacts of drought on cattle herd management, hay production, hay prices, and farm income in the United States from 2000 to 2022. Our results indicate that drought negatively impacts hay production and results in higher hay prices. Drought also contributes to herd liquidation and is ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 23-06

Farm Income’s Impact on the Midwest Economy

While farm income has long been an important driver of Midwestern economic activity, the influence of the agricultural sector had been waning until the boom in crop prices of 2004?13. More recently, a reversal in crop prices, along with other factors, has led incomes from crop farming to decline. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago held a conference on November 17, 2014, to examine the role of farm income in the Midwest economy.
Chicago Fed Letter

Journal Article
Not Bullish: U.S. Cattle Herds Hung Up on Higher Interest Expenses

Cattle inventories declined to historically low levels at the start of 2024. Cattle producers may facechallenges maintaining or restocking herds, as higher interest expenses on cattle and input purchases in2022–23 have constrained profit margins. Although feed costs have decreased slightly, higher costs forfinancing and other operating expenses could continue to put pressure on cattle production andprofitability.
Economic Bulletin

Discussion Paper
Will the United States Benefit from the Trans-Pacific Partnership?

U.S. involvement in what could be one of the world?s largest free trade agreements, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), has garnered a lot of attention, especially since the entry of Japan into negotiations last year. The proposed free trade agreement (FTA) encompasses twelve countries, which combined account for 45 percent of U.S. exports and 37 percent of U.S. imports. This broad coverage of U.S. trade seems to suggest large potential gains for the U.S. from the agreement. However, three quarters of this trade is already within the U.S. free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico (the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140516

Journal Article
Eighth District Farmers Navigate Global Supply Uncertainty

Disruptions in the supply of fertilizer and other agricultural inputs have affected U.S. farmers, who nonetheless remain in a strong financial position.
The Regional Economist

Can Immigration Help Boost Rural Economies in the Fifth District and Beyond

We examine the role of immigration in rural areas. While immigrants tend to concentrate in urban areas, rural areas also significantly benefit from immigration. Agricultural firms, for example, need to hire many immigrants to help with harvesting crops. Past restrictions to immigration in rural areas haven't proven to be very effective in boosting native worker employment in these areas. First, firms respond to such restrictions by investing in new technologies at the expense of labor. Also, native workers seem unwilling to take many jobs in rural areas, which makes immigrants particularly ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 22 , Issue 18

Working Paper
An Experimental Analysis of Quality Misperception in Food Labels

The size and distribution of surplus in markets where credence quality attributes of food (e.g., organic, non-GMO) are conveyed through some informational mechanism (typically labels) crucially depend on 1) how information changes consumers’ perception of quality and 2) producers’ strategic choice of quality provision in response to changes in consumers’ perception of quality. This paper examines the hypothesis that consumers’ misperception of quality information can provide incentives to sellers to increase quality and offset the lower quality that exists in markets where firms ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 23-11

Journal Article
Freshwater Scarcity Risk Rises in the U.S. and Eighth District

Although fresh water was once considered abundant, growing scarcity issues are putting pressure on parts of the U.S.—including in the Fed’s Eighth District.
The Regional Economist

Journal Article
Agriculture Workers Across the Eighth District

How has the share of foreign-born agriculture workers in the Eighth Federal Reserve District changed over the past five years?
Economic Synopses , Issue 8 , Pages 2 pages


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