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Working Paper
How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?
Ericsson, Neil R. (2017-01-06)
Government debt and forecasts thereof attracted considerable attention during the recent financial crisis. The current paper analyzes potential biases in different U.S. government agencies? one-year-ahead forecasts of U.S. gross federal debt over 1984-2012. Standard tests typically fail to detect biases in these forecasts. However, impulse indicator saturation (IIS) detects economically large and highly significant time-varying biases, particularly at turning points in the business cycle. These biases do not appear to be politically related. IIS defines a generic procedure for examining ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1189

Journal Article
Peas in a pod? Comparing the U.S. and Danish mortgage finance systems
Berg, Jesper; Vickery, James; Nielsen, Morten Bækmand (2018-24-03)
Like the United States, Denmark relies heavily on capital markets for funding residential mortgages, and its covered bond market bears a number of similarities to U.S. agency securitization. This article describes the key features of the Danish mortgage finance system and compares and contrasts them with those of the U.S. system. In addition, it highlights characteristics of the Danish model that may be of interest as the United States considers further mortgage finance reform. In particular, the Danish system includes features that mitigate refinancing frictions during periods of falling ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 24-3 , Pages 63-87

Discussion Paper
At the N.Y. Fed: The Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence?
Rouxel-Laxton, Valérie; Rey, Helene; Bertoldi, Moreno; Pesenti, Paolo (2016-06-03)
On April 18, 2016, the New York Fed hosted a conference on current and future policy directions for the linked economies of Europe and the United States. “The Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence?”—organized jointly with the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the European Commission—brought together U.S. and Europe-based policymakers, regulators, and academics to discuss a series of important issues: Are the economies of the euro area and the United States on a convergent or divergent path? Are financial regulatory reforms making the banking and financial structures ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160603

Blame higher U.S. equity prices for recent moves in U.S. external liabilities
Davis, J. Scott (2024-11-12)
The U.S. net foreign asset position—the value of foreign assets held by U.S. residents minus the value of U.S. assets held by foreign residents—has fallen sharply since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
Dallas Fed Economics

Speech
Understanding the evolving relationship between the United States and Mexico
Coronado, Roberto (2024-04-12)
Dallas Fed Senior Vice President Roberto Coronado delivered these remarks at the Western Hemispheric Trade Center Annual Conference at Texas A&M International University in Laredo.
Speeches and Essays

Discussion Paper
How Have the Euro Area and U.S. Labor Market Recoveries Differed?
Klitgaard, Thomas (2022-03-30)
The initial phase of the pandemic saw the euro area and U.S unemployment rates behave quite differently, with the rate for the United States rising much more dramatically than the euro area rate. Two years on, the rates for both regions are back near pre-pandemic levels. A key difference, though, is that U.S. employment levels were down by 3.0 million jobs in 2021:Q4 relative to pre-pandemic levels, while the number of euro area jobs was up 600,000. A look at employment by industry shows that both regions had large shortfalls in the accommodation and food services industries, as expected. A ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220330

Report
The Bitcoin–Macro Disconnect
Benigno, Gianluca; Rosa, Carlo (2023-02-01)
This paper investigates the link between Bitcoin and macroeconomic fundamentals by estimating the impact of macroeconomic news on Bitcoin using an event study with intraday data. The key result is that, unlike other U.S. asset classes, Bitcoin is orthogonal to monetary and macroeconomic news. This disconnect is puzzling as unexpected changes in discount rates should, in principle, affect the price of Bitcoin even when interpreting Bitcoin as a purely speculative asset.
Staff Reports , Paper 1052

Discussion Paper
Has the Pandemic Reduced U.S. Remittances Going to Latin America?
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2020-11-09)
Workers' remittances—funds that migrants send to their country of birth—are an important source of income for a number of economies in Latin America, with the bulk of these funds coming from the United States. Have these flows dried up, given the COVID-19 recession and resulting unprecedented job losses? We find that remittances initially faltered but rebounded in the summer months, performing better than during the last U.S. recession despite more severe job losses. Large government income support payments probably explain some of this resilience. Whether remittances continue to hold up ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20201109

Working Paper
Cross-border banking on the two sides of the Atlantic: does it have an impact on bank crisis management?
Nieto, Maria J.; Wall, Larry D. (2015-11-01)
In the United States and the European Union (EU), political incentives to oppose cross-border banking have been strong in spite of the measurable benefits to the real economy from breaking down geographic barriers. Even a federal-level supervisor and safety net are not by themselves sufficient to incentivizing cross-border banking although differences in the institutional set-up are reflected in the way the two areas responded to the crisis. The U.S. response was a coordinated response, and the cost of resolving banks was borne at the national level. Moreover, the Federal Deposit Insurance ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2015-11

Discussion Paper
Who Pays the Tax on Imports from China?
Nattinger, Michael; Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2019-11-25)
Tariffs are a form of taxation. Indeed, before the 1920s, tariffs (or customs duties) were typically the largest source of funding for the U.S. government. Of little interest for decades, tariffs are again becoming relevant, given the substantial increase in the rates charged on imports from China. U.S. businesses and consumers are shielded from the higher tariffs to the extent that Chinese firms lower the dollar prices they charge. U.S. import price data, however, indicate that prices on goods from China have so far not fallen. As a result, U.S. wholesalers, retailers, manufacturers, and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191125

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