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The effectiveness of nonstandard monetary policy measures: evidence from survey data
We assess the perception of professional forecasters regarding the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy measures announced by the U.S. Federal Reserve after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Using survey data collected at the individual level, we analyze the change in forecasts of Treasury and corporate bond yields around the announcement dates of nonstandard monetary policy measures. We find that professional forecasters expect bond yields to drop significantly for at least one year after the announcement of accommodative policies.
The relationship between expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty: evidence from matched point and density forecasts
This paper examines matched point and density forecasts of inflation from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to analyze the relationship between expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty. We extend previous studies through our data construction and estimation methodology. Specifically, we derive measures of disagreement and uncertainty by using a decomposition proposed in earlier research by Wallis and by applying the concept of entropy from information theory. We also undertake the empirical analysis within a seemingly unrelated regression framework. Our results offer mixed ...
Forecast disagreement in the Survey of Professional Forecasters
To enact effective policies and spend resources efficiently, firms, policymakers, and markets need accurate economic forecasts. But even though economists generally work with similar models and data, their projections often range widely. To better understand why, Keith Sill explores what the evidence and theories say about how forecasters form their views.
Are we in a recession? The 'anxious index nowcast' knows!
When the economy is in the midst of a recession, even a severe one, it can be quite difficult at first to tell. For example, as the Great Recession took hold in late 2007 and early 2008, uncertainty lingered as to whether the economy had merely slowed or was already contracting. Unfortunately for policymakers, investors, and consumers ? all of whom might have been able to use such information to make better decisions regarding consumption, investment, and saving ? the recession was not officially called until December 2008. Similarly, the four prior recessions were anywhere from five to nine ...
Are longer-term inflation expectations stable?
Bundick and Hakkio use survey data to evaluate the stability of forecasters' long-term inflation expectations.